Closing out the Middle East is the return of a once-powerful player to active engagement in the region: Turkey.
Under the newly re-elected and re-energized Justice and Development (AK) Party government, Ankara has realized that, though closer economic links to Europe are likely, actual EU membership is simply not in the cards. This is leading the Turks back to the Middle East in a serious way for the first time in a generation. Under the AK Party, Ankara is moving toward a balance between the Arabs and the Israelis.
The Turks are masters at balancing power and see Iran as a powerful rising force, with legitimate claims to influence in the region. Unlike the Arabs to their south and Iran's west, the Turks see Iran as a challenge, but not one to be overly afraid of. After all, the Turks are economically and militarily far stronger than the Iranians. So for Ankara the issue is one of balancing relations among the Arabs, the Americans and the Iranians.
The issue that will drive Turkish involvement is not Iraq per se, but the issue of the Iraqi Kurds' relative independence leaking across the border into Turkey's own Kurdish minority. Neither Iran nor Turkey wishes to see the Iraqi Kurds independent (or even autonomous) -- a commonality that could allow Iran to play a Turkish card in its talks with the United States. Add in the oil fields of Iraq's Kirkuk region to Ankara's planning, and Turkey's long-term interest in northern Iraq will only grow in the months ahead.
The Turks do not want to invade the Kurdish sections of northern Iraq -- which would be a messy affair in any permutation -- but they will if they have to, in order to protect their interests. That goes doubly should the Iranians ever begin exercising direct control over southern Iraq. This is unlikely to occur, but the Turks are nervous and their military is ready. In an effort to prevent such a scenario, Ankara, despite its unprecedented tensions with the United States over the decision to engage in regime-change in Iraq, will work the diplomatic circuit in Washington and in the region to contain further deterioration in the conditions in Iraq.
The fourth quarter will see Ankara more involved in all things Iraqi than it has been in a generation. Diplomatic and small-scale military operations against the Iraqi Kurds could help seal the rift between the quasi-religious AK Party government and the secular-minded military, in addition to serving very real Turkish security interests.