Ukraine : what to watch out for, now that NATO & the Ukranians appear to have the upperhand.

[peacefan]

i don't agree with NATO and the Ukranians kicking Russia out of the Donbass region (i think the Russians have a valid ethnic + territorial-flow claim to it), even though i had rather seen Russia build a railroad in eastern direction from Sebastopol naval base in Crimea (and then north into the Russian rail network), with Chinese help.
the Chinese are good at building railroads quickly, they got large machines for that.

but i agree even less with endless wars.

so here's what to watch out for, aside from gas-supply threats to Europe during winter (to prevent the Ukranians from getting resupplied), and threats with weapons of mass destruction (of any sort) :

the mercenaries threat, powered by steady gas supply money during winter.

mercenaries tend to eat up regular armies when properly supplied and given a blank check in superior-numbers groups.

my question to you all here is : did i miss anything?

 

[peacefan]

(this thread was also sent into the whitehouse.gov/contact form)

 

[peacefan]

here's another couple of points i'd like to briefly bring to your attention :
[2][starts]
(1) from the fall of the Soviet Union onward, we've driven Moscow into a corner by fostering pro-western thinking among the populations of that fallen Union.
(2) we've been "smart" by first taking the Baltic states[0] into our EU and NATO alliances, and then we drove Moscow's leaderships into the lashing-out state of mind when we ignored the Minsk Agreement negotiations (about the Russian-speaker-inhabited Donbass region)[1].
(3) when Belarus came into play (when Russia set up military drills with them), we were indecisive or outright ignored them with a smirk on some of our faces, not arming Ukraine for a quick victory against Russia, but instead we kept the flow of arms to Ukraine in a drips-at-a-time mode, ensuring our arms industries (and especially the US arms industries) could make money off a protracted war in Ukraine.
(4) Putin and his subordinates, while completely on the defensive, were painted as 'the next clan acting like Hitler's clan' in international media (media moguls and anchors who happily went along *again* with these *evil plans* forged and sustained by men and women far wealthier than me, who operate from behind the curtains), while Zalensky, who had willingly driven his people into this slaughter of their own elderly and subsequent protracted war, was painted as a strong hero-leader. this is also very wrong, in my view. the leaders who can use diplomacy effectively to ensure peace and prosperity for their people should be hailed as heros, not the (secretive/sexy) warmongerers.
[2][ends]

i consider myself a volunteer analyst and somewhat of a historian-writer *for* NATO.
and i don't mind the outcome of a Ukranian victory one bit, western control of the grain and wheat supplies generated by Ukranian farmers will be a good thing for vital western interests like controlling the ambitions of the very ambitious Iranians for instance.

but what i *do* mind, are the NOT-SO-MINOR side-effects : prolonged war & recurring wars (when measured over the decades and centuries) to sell more arms, and starving people in 3rd world countries.
i want that to end, or at least get managed a lot better (along with the need for our own military to usurp quite that much money per year).
and i'll do it by exposing the wealthy families behind the curtains, not by online-verbally attacking the politicians, whom i consider in most cases just the spokespeople for these wealthier families who operate from the safety and secrecy of their comfy yachts, retreats and secured homes.
up until now i've done so only at this forum.
but i can expand my reach, with relative ease even.
this is not meant to be a threat, it's meant to rattle the golden cages of such families-behind-the-scenes a bit.
to see what their response would be to the following :

so here's my ultimatum : change these policies within the next 10 years, or i *will* go on the online 'offensive'.
of course, my own business ventures at nicer.app web apps framework, (Business headlines on nicer.app might be of use to you all, by the way) and my other business plans will most likely be affected by this decision i just made.
but reaching wealth from the working class (social welfare class even, at the moment, i suffer from a sleep-rythm-balance problem), is not my greatest priority in this early 21st century.
using the emerging internet powers available to people from my economic class to bring positive change into the worlds of people who aren't wealthy enough even for proper internet equipment, is.

[0] Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (especially Lithuania) on the North-Western Russian border, closing off Kalinggrad province, which is now also barred from receiving steel imports, another seemingly smart move to prevent the Kalingradians from building ships with which to sail into the North Sea and pose dangers to North-Western Europe and the UK and Ireland islands.

[1] Minsk agreements - Wikipedia

IN ADDITION : we've provoked the Russian bear[2]. given it time to retreat and plan a counter-offensive to regain control over the Black Sea, which is now isolated (Crimea), as is their access to the North-Sea (Kalinggrad).
This is what you get when you put greedy amateur business-world "military analysts" in the driving seat of entire alliances like the EU and NATO : crappy long-term planning.
The Chinese *will* use the Iranians and the Muslims to their advantage, to kill both the Donkey (US democratic party) and the Elephant (US republican party), along with their "henchmen", the EU parliament, by poisonous insect stings (attacks that can't be traced back to them, to which *they* will own the rights of implausibility).

 

[peacefan]

and of course, once the NATO and EU alliances have been stung enough times, it's time for the final "death-blows", during which we'll be forced into a large retreat from many territories we've conquered in the past, or even face a total downfall of our alliances (or at least the far off international allies that we had as satellite countries in those alliances).

this is already in the works, folks, since our stubborn support for the settler country Israel got started at the time of the creation of Israel.
the friendships offered from the Muslim worlds were fake to begin with, since they're still fuming over Christian victories during the Crusades, and this was proven during the 1970s OPEC oil price hike crisis.
9/11 and the wars against terror followed, which are still ongoing but slumbering at the moment, ready to erupt at a time of the Muslim fundamentalists' choosing.

the west has been trying to strangle the rest of the world into control, under that guise of a 'world order' or 'international order'.
but it's really imposing our profit margins and our way of life upon billions of others.
others who far outnumber us.

so we've been keep our war-technological edge over these others, ensuring victory at every confrontation.
but WE WILL NOT BE READY for the swarm of insects that can be brought to bear upon us once the Chinese + Russian + Muslim + others alliance finally trusts itself enough to go full steam against us.
and until then, they just steal our tech at every encounter.
so don't field our latest tech against them, please.

and learn the art of diplomacy and fair trading practices, before we face a real and permanent downfall of our alliances EU and NATO.

 

[Mac-7]

and of course, once the NATO and EU alliances have been stung enough times, it's time for the final "death-blows", during which we'll be forced into a large retreat from many territories we've conquered in the past,

Can you name the territories you think “we” have conquered that NATO will retreat from?

 

[peacefan]

Can you name the territories you think “we” have conquered that NATO will retreat from?

Sure, the Baltic states, Ukraine, and the other countries leading towards Turkey, for instance. The areas around the Black Sea, leading towards their current allies, the anti-western Muslim nations like Iran.
But i'm not sure what the final-planning of the (Middle-)Eastern Alliance (Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran as leading countries probably) will look like.
The future is darn near impossible to predict. Especially at those time-ranges.

But i do dare to predict that after these territories have been conquered and converted at the societal level by the Eastern Alliance, that at the next push by the Western Alliances, there will be another World War, which we might hold only as a series of conventional regional wars, that could very well lead into Europe or North-America, where you'd have large numbers of immigrants siding with the invaders.
You see, at that stage, they'll have *all* the domestic argumentation to use against us to see *us* as the Hitlers of the world. Plus reverse-engineered high-quality military tech that they can produce in larger numbers because they hold the mineral and oil reserves to do that offensive with. And the absence of birth-control policies. Not to mention their already superior numbers.

I had to read a lot of historical background pages, and dig pretty deep in my memories and judgement skill set to be able to declare the US innocent in the wars of terror.
The Muslims had a good point about all those civilian casualties, and we retreated from Afghanistan much like we did in Vietnam : with the locals that were against us, partying for a long time. And regrouping & re-arming for the next round.

 

[peacefan]

Did you know the Turks have a bubbling-up of severe nationalism leading them antagonistically into Europe every few decades? Last one was around WW1. Next one is predicted next year(?!)..
They also have a close friendship with the Iranians.
Something to keep in mind, on top of our other increasingly too-long list of adversaries.

 

[peacefan]

On the upside, i think the Democrats these days have at least as good a brain about foreign military policy planning as the Republicans do.
Biden & co made friends with the Ukranians, and instituted the large scale sanctions program against the Russians when they made their invasion move.
Biden & co are also trying to make friends with the Iranians.
i think both are good moves, despite what Republicans might say about it for the sake of their own election chances.

 

[peacefan]

i'll try and think out some kinda small set of tactics and strategies to tame the 'Russian bears', while avoiding to provoke the Chinese tigers.
a global better-farming project would be a good solution for instance, as would a conquest-of-our-own-solar-system by means of cooperation rather than economic competition.
the asteroid belts just beyond Mars are very rich in gold, diamonds, and every other kind of mineral we would need to sustain a much larger global population.
and as for our defense capabilities in such a time of peace : i'll definitely never be against mock competitions by Earth's militaries against eachother.
just in case bad-assed aliens show up with a drive for conquering humanity.

 

[Mac-7]

Sure, the Baltic states, Ukraine, and the other countries leading towards Turkey, for instance. The areas around the Black Sea, leading towards their current allies, the anti-western Muslim nations like Iran.
But i'm not sure what the final-planning of the (Middle-)Eastern Alliance (Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran as leading countries probably) will look like.
The future is darn near impossible to predict. Especially at those time-ranges.

But i do dare to predict that after these territories have been conquered and converted at the societal level by the Eastern Alliance, that at the next push by the Western Alliances, there will be another World War, which we might hold only as a series of conventional regional wars, that could very well lead into Europe or North-America, where you'd have large numbers of immigrants siding with the invaders.
You see, at that stage, they'll have *all* the domestic argumentation to use against us to see *us* as the Hitlers of the world. Plus reverse-engineered high-quality military tech that they can produce in larger numbers because they hold the mineral and oil reserves to do that offensive with. And the absence of birth-control policies. Not to mention their already superior numbers.

I had to read a lot of historical background pages, and dig pretty deep in my memories and judgement skill set to be able to declare the US innocent in the wars of terror.
The Muslims had a good point about all those civilian casualties, and we retreated from Afghanistan much like we did in Vietnam : with the locals that were against us, partying for a long time. And regrouping & re-arming for the next round.

You are babbling complete nonsense

The Baltic states escaped from communism and ran to the capitalist west as fast as they could

 

[peacefan]

You are babbling complete nonsense

The Baltic states escaped from communism and ran to the capitalist west as fast as they could

well, then i'd say you're quite the indoctrinated fella.

 

[peacefan]

Russian State TV Declares It's Time to Admit 'Serious Defeat' in Ukraine War - The Daily Beast

Russian State TV Declares It's Time to Admit 'Serious Defeat' in Ukraine War The Daily Beast Putin's Spokesman Warns Russians Angry at War: 'Very Thin Line' Newsweek Russian military setbacks: Pro-Moscow pundits criticise war plans Al Jazeera English Kremlin comments on Russian withdrawal in Ukraine and outrage on social media Yahoo News Russian correspondent admits army suffered 'huge' losses in on-air gaffe New York Post View Full Coverage on Google News

Local : 2022-09-14(Wednesday) 03 : 30 : 16
Remote : 2022-09-14(Wednesday) 03 : 30 : 16
Found via World_Headlines headlines on nicer.app

please note : and now the Russian bears are angry. very, very angry.

 

[Mac-7]

well, then i'd say you're quite the indoctrinated fella.

If thats what libs call it, then happily so

 

[AZrailwhale]

Sure, the Baltic states, Ukraine, and the other countries leading towards Turkey, for instance. The areas around the Black Sea, leading towards their current allies, the anti-western Muslim nations like Iran.
But i'm not sure what the final-planning of the (Middle-)Eastern Alliance (Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran as leading countries probably) will look like.
The future is darn near impossible to predict. Especially at those time-ranges.

But i do dare to predict that after these territories have been conquered and converted at the societal level by the Eastern Alliance, that at the next push by the Western Alliances, there will be another World War, which we might hold only as a series of conventional regional wars, that could very well lead into Europe or North-America, where you'd have large numbers of immigrants siding with the invaders.
You see, at that stage, they'll have *all* the domestic argumentation to use against us to see *us* as the Hitlers of the world. Plus reverse-engineered high-quality military tech that they can produce in larger numbers because they hold the mineral and oil reserves to do that offensive with. And the absence of birth-control policies. Not to mention their already superior numbers.

I had to read a lot of historical background pages, and dig pretty deep in my memories and judgement skill set to be able to declare the US innocent in the wars of terror.
The Muslims had a good point about all those civilian casualties, and we retreated from Afghanistan much like we did in Vietnam : with the locals that were against us, partying for a long time. And regrouping & re-arming for the next round.

NATO hasn't conquered anything. All those countries requested NATO membership to gain protection from aggression by the voracious Russian bear.

 

[mamooth]

mercenaries tend to eat up regular armies when properly supplied and given a blank check in superior-numbers groups.

No. Mercs get their asses handed to them by regular armies.

Battle of Khasham - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Syria. 40 US special forces face off against 500 Wagner Group mercs. Result: 100+ dead mercs, no US losses.

In Ukraine, Russian mercs are mostly used to terrify the occupied population. They're kind of useless on the front line.

 

[peacefan]

NATO hasn't conquered anything. All those countries requested NATO membership to gain protection from aggression by the voracious Russian bear.

i suspect sneaky games by NATO politicians to groom these countries into NATO membership.
the evidence for it can be found on wikipedia, but requires a lot of careful reading.
of course, you could say that we simply offered our friendship and help to these countries, but that "help" got Ukraine's elderly slaughtered, and the rest of the Ukranians in a protracted war.
i will give NATO credit for getting Russian state media singing tunes of admitting a serious defeat at the moment, but it remains to be seen if the Moscovian leaders aren't planning a counter-offensive of their own right now.

 

[AZrailwhale]

i suspect sneaky games by NATO politicians to groom these countries into NATO membership.
the evidence for it can be found on wikipedia, but requires a lot of careful reading.
of course, you could say that we simply offered our friendship and help to these countries, but that "help" got Ukraine's elderly slaughtered, and the rest of the Ukranians in a protracted war.
i will give NATO credit for getting Russian state media singing tunes of admitting a serious defeat at the moment, but it remains to be seen if the Moscovian leaders aren't planning a counter-offensive of their own right now.

Nope, no sneaky games at all, just garden variety Russian aggression and bellicosity. Eastern Europe had forty five years of Russian domination and the old SSRs had over a hundred years of Russian domination. None of them want history rewound. They couldn't flee to NATO fast enough when the bear showed that it hadn’t changed its stripes.

NATO and the west had nothing to do with Russia’s war with Ukraine. That’s all on Putin openly admitting he wanted to recreate the Russian Empire by force and then making his actions support his words. All Putin had to do was stay within his borders and respect the sovereignty of his neighbors and Russia would be at peace today without losing tens of thousands of its young men and suffering economic sanctions from the rest of the world.
In my opinion Ukraine should never have given Russia the lease on the naval base at Sevastopol.

 

[Litwin]

i don't agree with NATO and the Ukranians kicking Russia out of the Donbass region (i think the Russians have a valid ethnic + territorial-flow claim to it), even though i had rather seen Russia build a railroad in eastern direction from Sebastopol naval base in Crimea (and then north into the Russian rail network), with Chinese help.
the Chinese are good at building railroads quickly, they got large machines for that.

but i agree even less with endless wars.

so here's what to watch out for, aside from gas-supply threats to Europe during winter (to prevent the Ukranians from getting resupplied), and threats with weapons of mass destruction (of any sort) :

the mercenaries threat, powered by steady gas supply money during winter.

mercenaries tend to eat up regular armies when properly supplied and given a blank check in superior-numbers groups.

my question to you all here is : did i miss anything?

if you need "russian" criminals in order to fight your colonial war in Europe you badly f u c k ed

The WORST PITCH EVER !'If you desert, we'll execute you': 'Putin's buddy Prigozhin (Wagner, Troll Factory etc.) recruits PRISONERS for Ukrainian war

The WORST PITCH EVER :lol: !'If you desert, we'll execute you': 'Putin's buddy Prigozhin (Wagner, Troll Factory etc.) recruits PRISONERS for Ukrainian war

www.usmessageboard.com

 

[peacefan]

Nope, no sneaky games at all, just garden variety Russian aggression and bellicosity. Eastern Europe had forty five years of Russian domination and the old SSRs had over a hundred years of Russian domination. None of them want history rewound. They couldn't flee to NATO fast enough when the bear showed that it hadn’t changed its stripes.

NATO and the west had nothing to do with Russia’s war with Ukraine. That’s all on Putin openly admitting he wanted to recreate the Russian Empire by force and then making his actions support his words. All Putin had to do was stay within his borders and respect the sovereignty of his neighbors and Russia would be at peace today without losing tens of thousands of its young men and suffering economic sanctions from the rest of the world.
In my opinion Ukraine should never have given Russia the lease on the naval base at Sevastopol.

Putin Increasingly Relying on Poorly Trained Russian Volunteers in War: ISW - Newsweek

Putin Increasingly Relying on Poorly Trained Russian Volunteers in War: ISW NewsweekView Full Coverage on Google News

Local : 2022-09-20(Tuesday) 00 : 10 : 15
Remote : 2022-09-20(Tuesday) 00 : 10 : 15
Found via World_Headlines headlines on nicer.app

your opinion on the matter is backed up by Newsweek magazine.
i'll have to reconsider my own stance on Russia perhaps a bit more now.