MinTrut
Diamond Member
- Jun 7, 2021
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New Hampshire is irrelevant, Sparky.While a dominating share of the Republican Party’s core voters are still with him, the results signaled he risks losing enough Republicans—as well as a substantial share of independents—to create a problem for him as a general-election candidate.
The first task for any candidate is to unify the party. But 19% of Republicans who cast ballots in New Hampshire said they would be so dissatisfied with Trump as the nominee that they wouldn’t vote for him in November, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of primary voters. Similarly, 15% of Republicans who participated in Iowa’s caucuses last week said they wouldn’t support Trump in the general election.
“In a polarized country, any candidate has to win 90% or more of their party to win an election,” said Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster and strategist. “You can’t be competitive if you’re not close to 90%.” In 2020, Trump lost 9% of his own party’s voters, AP VoteCast found, and still came up short in the election.
Not looking good for Trump. Sure, he won two states so far and he is predicted to win a third but as this article shows, he is losing Republicans and more importantly, independents. Oh well. Republicans had a choice but the hard-core decided to stick with Trump.
So is Iowa.
Only a handful of states matter.
You're welcome.