kyzr
Diamond Member
We have no idea what our infection rate is really because of Drumpfs lack of action. It could be as high as 50x that of other countries.So, in about 65 years, we've gone from "The buck stops here" to "I don't take responsibility at all." When is Trump going to stop blaming others for his failures? Is ANYTHING ever his fault?
Trump blames Obama for lack of coronavirus tests: 'I don't take responsibility at all'
Trump definitely has some responsibility for this crisis. Among other things, he fired former President Obama's Pandemic Response Team in 2018.
You should be thanking Trump for keeping the virus out of the US for as long as possible. Look at the EU and see that their infection rate is about 15x more than the US for similar population size. Why is that? Like I said, its because Trump kept it out as long as possible.
However, now that COVID-19 has a foothold it will be spreading fast. How well we contain it and keep the peak of the bell curve as low as possible will determine if we were successful or if we failed. Automated testing was approved and is coming online just when it is needed most, as the bell curve starts to ramp up. The next two or three weeks will decide the fight against COVID-19. Stay safe.
Quest Diagnostics Newsroom - News Releases
Thermo Fisher to produce millions of coronavirus diagnostic tests - STAT
Jack Ma Offers to Supply the US With Covid-19 Tests and Masks
New Coronavirus Test 10 Times Faster Is FDA Approved
Roche’s cobas SARS-CoV-2 Test to detect novel coronavirus receives FDA Emergency Use Authorization and is available in markets accepting the CE mark
Roche Diagnostics receives emergency approval for new COVID-19 test
We agree that the infection rate could be higher than it is today, 5%, 10%, 20%? Who knows?
Have a link proving your 50x?? Didn't think so.
We'll see next week how much the infection rate spikes, if it spikes.
The next two weeks should show the peak of the bell curve.
If I'm right the US peak should be well below the EU peak. Italy at 1/6th the population of the US is projected to have 30,000 infections on 3/15, the US, if the testing was generally accurate, should be about 3,000 on 3/15. We shall see who is right.
What's the best way to eliminate crimes? Fire all policemen. Why? No data, no crimes.
No one has in the moment correct data. Our German data were yesterday or the day before 4838 infected persons, 12 died. The Italian data were at the same time 21,157 infected persons, 1441 died. So the mortality in Germany is 2480 ~ 2500 per 1 million infects. The Italian data for mortality is 14,682 ~15,000 per 1 million infected people. 15,000 / 2,500 = 6 : 1. The real lethality we will know when the crisis is over. It's somewhere in the near of the lethality of an influenza virus. The influenza pandemic of 1918 is a good comparison. In 1918-1920 died about 20-100 million people worldwide. (More than had died in world war 1).
What concerns "Germany" in the moment? For people who are good in mathematics: The virus grows exponential. I had the feeling every week were 2 times more people infected and a little while later - although we started immediately to fight against this virus - every 1/2 week the virus doubled the infections. This growth is not only exponential - it is even hyperbolic. It's a damned aggressive virus. How to compare this? Perhaps with a nuclear explosion. Only because we are able to see this explosion in an extreme slow motion no one should wake wrong hopes in context of the destructive power of this virus-explosion. Fight, fight, fight against this virus. Now. A slow-motion fight needs patience - but never let miss the will to win against this virus. That's the chance to win in the end.
Oh by the way: In this comparison with a nuke we are the critical mass on our own. We need distance to each other so the virus finds no way from one person to the next person. If all human beings would be perfect in this way to fight against this virus, then all this Corona-viruses would be dead within only 2 weeks. But more realistic we have to calculate months - perhaps years. By the way: The German company, which Donald Trump neverliked to buy for the USA for a billion $, will perhaps find a serum in June or July (or never if something goes wrong). If it finds a vaccine then everyone in the world will get the vaccine - the USA too. But this is not the only German company, which is searching for a vaccine. Lots are doing so in the moment. If an US-American company is successful in finding a vaccine, then this is not any problem too.
View attachment 312691
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30627-9/fulltext
Here is the US curve as predicted
Coronavirus map: Tracking the spread in the US and around the world
p.s. The Italy prediction of 30,000 on 3/15 was made on 3/8. The actual number in Italy on 3/15 will be about 25,000 so the bell curve for Italy is bending toward a peak. The US curve is just starting to climb, so we need to plot the numbers in the next two weeks to see how the US peak compares to the Italy and EU peaks. If the US does better, thank you President Trump.
Trump has no idea about mathematics nor about biology or medicine or any other serious science. He is not able to work together with others trustfully - and no one trusts in Trump any longer too. He's a kind of self-fulfilling parody of a politician. Don't expect any help from this idiot.
1. Thank you for that beautiful video.
2. We agree that this virus is very aggressive, and only time will tell what the bell curves for each country looks like.
3. Hoping that a biotech finds a therapy and a vaccine soon, even though the vaccine won't be ready for next winter.
4. Agree Trump has no aptitude in medicine or science. But he does have a lot of very smart people around him that he listens to. I think that's why he handed off the response team to Pence. Otherwise he'd make stupid "political" decisions and he knows it.
5. If you think Trump is a parody, you should see Biden and Sanders.
6. Stay safe.