Tracking the el nino

[jc456]

Going to miss another big snow storm this weekend

Thanks El Nino

well in Chicago, woke up to zero degrees with the chance of snow in the afternoon. Where the fk is the el nino at?

 

[Skull Pilot]

Going to miss another big snow storm this weekend

Thanks El Nino

well in Chicago, woke up to zero degrees with the chance of snow in the afternoon. Where the fk is the el nino at?

I live in New England and El Nino winters are usually much milder than normal here

Thanks El Nino

 

[Old Rocks]

Sacramento and Northern California Weather Radar – KCRA 3 News

Southern California Doppler Weather Radar Map - AccuWeather.com

So easy to do. And I constantly bemoan my inadequate computer skills.

dude, he was interested in seeing where you got your information. And, I thought in this forum, if you were posting something from a link, you were expected to provide the link. Right?

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]California Weather Blog[/FONT]
Relatively dry conditions persist in Southern California; Sierra Nevada snowfall best in years
Relatively little has changed since my last update, and so the present post will be a short one.

Pockets of NorCal have seen above-average precipitation so far this season, but most of the state remains below average. (WRCC)

Not as much as we would like, but more than california has had in a long time.

California Weather Blog. That is the link. Just posted it for you, jc, never say that I am not kind to our retarded citizens.​

 

[Old Rocks]

Going to miss another big snow storm this weekend

Thanks El Nino

well in Chicago, woke up to zero degrees with the chance of snow in the afternoon. Where the fk is the el nino at?

Skull Pilot is hogging it all.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Sacramento and Northern California Weather Radar – KCRA 3 News

Southern California Doppler Weather Radar Map - AccuWeather.com

So easy to do. And I constantly bemoan my inadequate computer skills.

 

[jc456]

Sacramento and Northern California Weather Radar – KCRA 3 News

Southern California Doppler Weather Radar Map - AccuWeather.com

So easy to do. And I constantly bemoan my inadequate computer skills.

dude, he was interested in seeing where you got your information. And, I thought in this forum, if you were posting something from a link, you were expected to provide the link. Right?

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]California Weather Blog[/FONT]
Relatively dry conditions persist in Southern California; Sierra Nevada snowfall best in years
Relatively little has changed since my last update, and so the present post will be a short one.

Pockets of NorCal have seen above-average precipitation so far this season, but most of the state remains below average. (WRCC)

Not as much as we would like, but more than california has had in a long time.

California Weather Blog. That is the link. Just posted it for you, jc, never say that I am not kind to our retarded citizens.​

It's a blog right? Do they do the work or post up others? Just curious the chart says NOAA, and the description seems to be the bloggers. since it states my last update. So who is the dude/ dudette?

 

[Weatherman2020]

Sacramento and Northern California Weather Radar – KCRA 3 News

Southern California Doppler Weather Radar Map - AccuWeather.com

So easy to do. And I constantly bemoan my inadequate computer skills.

From your own blog.
A. End of December is not the early rainy season in CA.
B. January has had one significant rainfall in half the State with no more forecasted for the remainder of the month.

Early season rains soak Northern California; statewide storms likely in January

Modest drought relief in NorCal, but SoCal remains relatively dry As highlighted in the last post, substantial and widespread precipitation has fallen in recent days across the northern half of California. Along the North Coast and in Mendocino County, this rainfall has actually set a … Continue reading →
December 23, 20152939 Comments

 

[Weatherman2020]

Lesson learned is that the climate models can't even predict even close to accurate what will happen in 3 months let alone in a hundred years.

 

[mamooth]

Lesson learned is that the climate models can't even predict even close to accurate what will happen in 3 months let alone in a hundred years.

But the models were perfect on the El Nino. You, as is usual, were hilariously wrong, and are trying to deflect from your abject failure with mindless bluster. Not gonna work.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Alex just formed in the Atlantic.

Hurricane Alex : Tracking Map

There have been El Ninos before, yet they've never resulted in January Atlantic hurricanes before. Something is different this time. Whatever could it be?

It's almost as if the oceans are ... warmer. Oh wait, the oceans _are_ warmer this time around. Golly, what could have caused that?

 

[flacaltenn]

Lesson learned is that the climate models can't even predict even close to accurate what will happen in 3 months let alone in a hundred years.

But the models were perfect on the El Nino. You, as is usual, were hilariously wrong, and are trying to deflect from your abject failure with mindless bluster. Not gonna work.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Alex just formed in the Atlantic.

Hurricane Alex : Tracking Map

There have been El Ninos before, yet they've never resulted in January Atlantic hurricanes before. Something is different this time. Whatever could it be?

It's almost as if the oceans are ... warmer. Oh wait, the oceans _are_ warmer this time around. Golly, what could have caused that?

Oh my.. The DRAMA is just like on the Batchelor. Tropical atlantic is not much warmer than the past 30 years. Dec -- Jan CAT ONE storms have happened since weather was an item..

List of off-season Atlantic hurricanes - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

But most importantly --- Warmer water is not a "sufficient" condition to form or intensify a Jan Tropical STorm..

 

[westwall]

Lesson learned is that the climate models can't even predict even close to accurate what will happen in 3 months let alone in a hundred years.

Heck, they can't accurately predict TWO days down the road. The belief that they are accurate merely reinforces the unscientific nature of the faithers.

 

[westwall]

Lesson learned is that the climate models can't even predict even close to accurate what will happen in 3 months let alone in a hundred years.

But the models were perfect on the El Nino. You, as is usual, were hilariously wrong, and are trying to deflect from your abject failure with mindless bluster. Not gonna work.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Alex just formed in the Atlantic.

Hurricane Alex : Tracking Map

There have been El Ninos before, yet they've never resulted in January Atlantic hurricanes before. Something is different this time. Whatever could it be?

It's almost as if the oceans are ... warmer. Oh wait, the oceans _are_ warmer this time around. Golly, what could have caused that?

They were? Here in Nevada the claims were "well, we hope we get more moisture but don't bet on it"...

 

[jc456]

Lesson learned is that the climate models can't even predict even close to accurate what will happen in 3 months let alone in a hundred years.

But the models were perfect on the El Nino. You, as is usual, were hilariously wrong, and are trying to deflect from your abject failure with mindless bluster. Not gonna work.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Alex just formed in the Atlantic.

Hurricane Alex : Tracking Map

There have been El Ninos before, yet they've never resulted in January Atlantic hurricanes before. Something is different this time. Whatever could it be?

It's almost as if the oceans are ... warmer. Oh wait, the oceans _are_ warmer this time around. Golly, what could have caused that?

They were? Here in Nevada the claims were "well, we hope we get more moisture but don't bet on it"...

And the polar Vortex continues to happen. If it were really an el nino, there wouldn't be any polar vortex, Tooth can you hear me?

 

[Weatherman2020]

Lesson learned is that the climate models can't even predict even close to accurate what will happen in 3 months let alone in a hundred years.

But the models were perfect on the El Nino. You, as is usual, were hilariously wrong, and are trying to deflect from your abject failure with mindless bluster. Not gonna work.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Alex just formed in the Atlantic.

Hurricane Alex : Tracking Map

There have been El Ninos before, yet they've never resulted in January Atlantic hurricanes before. Something is different this time. Whatever could it be?

It's almost as if the oceans are ... warmer. Oh wait, the oceans _are_ warmer this time around. Golly, what could have caused that?

The climate models were dead wrong. Storm tracks were to shift to SoCal, the Pacific Northwest was to be dry. Guess where the storm tracks continue to be?

And bringing up an Atlantic hurricane as evidence of El Niño is simply hilarious. You obviously don't even know what El Niño is.

 

[Billy_Bob]

The "record" El Niño is a bust. Weather patterns have remained almost normal in the West with SoCal, the supposed ground zero of storms, at 40% of average rainfall with only 10 weeks remaining in the rainy season. No storms are seen in the long range forecast. Storms continue to track into the Pacific Northwest in a normal year pattern.

Guess what. All those climate models were WRONG.

You know i asked Old Fraud if he knew why we returned to a La Niña pattern and he still hasn't pony'ed up..

 

[Crick]

Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?

In the context of strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record.
Compared to last month, the updated (November-December) MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking, and about 0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015 El Niño remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a fairly strong rebound that peaked in late boreal winter 0.4 sigma higher than in Novemeber-December.
Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+2/-4) in this season gives us four 'analogues' already identified three months ago: 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1997, plus 1987 and 1991. Three of these six analogues evolved into La Niña events one year later (1973, '88, and '98), while two of them dropped back into ENSO-neutral conditions ('66 and '83), and one hung on to weak El Niño rankings one year later ('92). While the odds for La Niña a year from now are higher (50%) than climatological odds (30%), it is obviously not a guaranteed outcome. Meanwhile, strong El Niño conditions (top 10% ranking) are very likely through January-February, while general El Niño rankings (top 30%) are the most likely outcome for the next six months.
Positive SST anomalies cover the eastern equatorial Pacific, all the way from just west of the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. This includes anomalies above +2C from about 90-170W, and even +3C anomalies within that 'warm tongue', a little less common than one month ago.
Earth System Research Laboratory : PSD : (none)

 

[Weatherman2020]

Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?

In the context of strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record.
Compared to last month, the updated (November-December) MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking, and about 0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015 El Niño remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a fairly strong rebound that peaked in late boreal winter 0.4 sigma higher than in Novemeber-December.
Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+2/-4) in this season gives us four 'analogues' already identified three months ago: 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1997, plus 1987 and 1991. Three of these six analogues evolved into La Niña events one year later (1973, '88, and '98), while two of them dropped back into ENSO-neutral conditions ('66 and '83), and one hung on to weak El Niño rankings one year later ('92). While the odds for La Niña a year from now are higher (50%) than climatological odds (30%), it is obviously not a guaranteed outcome. Meanwhile, strong El Niño conditions (top 10% ranking) are very likely through January-February, while general El Niño rankings (top 30%) are the most likely outcome for the next six months.
Positive SST anomalies cover the eastern equatorial Pacific, all the way from just west of the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. This includes anomalies above +2C from about 90-170W, and even +3C anomalies within that 'warm tongue', a little less common than one month ago.
Earth System Research Laboratory : PSD : (none)

La Nina weather patterns bring drought conditions to the Southwest.
Exactly like the winter has been. The climate models are DEAD WRONG.

 

[Weatherman2020]

La Niña weather pattern continues. The climate models were WRONG.

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) — The amount of rain in the San Francisco Bay Area in the 2015-16 rainfall season is less than same period last year and less than normal, National Weather Service

officials said Sunday.

Santa Rosa received 13.37 inches of rain from Oct. 1 last year to 4 p.m. Sunday, while last season it received 18.55 inches. The normal amount of rainfall is 16.71 inches.

San Francisco received 9.45 inches so far this season, compared with 14.45 inches by Jan. 10 last season, weather service officials said. The normal amount is 10.3 inches.

 

[Old Rocks]

Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?

In the context of strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record.
Compared to last month, the updated (November-December) MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking, and about 0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015 El Niño remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a fairly strong rebound that peaked in late boreal winter 0.4 sigma higher than in Novemeber-December.
Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+2/-4) in this season gives us four 'analogues' already identified three months ago: 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1997, plus 1987 and 1991. Three of these six analogues evolved into La Niña events one year later (1973, '88, and '98), while two of them dropped back into ENSO-neutral conditions ('66 and '83), and one hung on to weak El Niño rankings one year later ('92). While the odds for La Niña a year from now are higher (50%) than climatological odds (30%), it is obviously not a guaranteed outcome. Meanwhile, strong El Niño conditions (top 10% ranking) are very likely through January-February, while general El Niño rankings (top 30%) are the most likely outcome for the next six months.
Positive SST anomalies cover the eastern equatorial Pacific, all the way from just west of the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. This includes anomalies above +2C from about 90-170W, and even +3C anomalies within that 'warm tongue', a little less common than one month ago.
Earth System Research Laboratory : PSD : (none)

La Nina weather patterns bring drought conditions to the Southwest.
Exactly like the winter has been. The climate models are DEAD WRONG.

You dumb fuck. The current El Nino is not a model, it is an observed phenomenon. Tell us about all of this in July. The predictions are based on percentages of past El Nino's. So the weather may happen a bit earlier, or a bit later. Or, with a much lower probability, may not happen at all.

This is what is frustrating when communicating with people of very low scientific or mathematical background. They think they know everything, and show they know nothing at all. Grow up, use the tool in front of you, and actually learn something.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?

In the context of strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record.
Compared to last month, the updated (November-December) MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking, and about 0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015 El Niño remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a fairly strong rebound that peaked in late boreal winter 0.4 sigma higher than in Novemeber-December.
Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+2/-4) in this season gives us four 'analogues' already identified three months ago: 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1997, plus 1987 and 1991. Three of these six analogues evolved into La Niña events one year later (1973, '88, and '98), while two of them dropped back into ENSO-neutral conditions ('66 and '83), and one hung on to weak El Niño rankings one year later ('92). While the odds for La Niña a year from now are higher (50%) than climatological odds (30%), it is obviously not a guaranteed outcome. Meanwhile, strong El Niño conditions (top 10% ranking) are very likely through January-February, while general El Niño rankings (top 30%) are the most likely outcome for the next six months.
Positive SST anomalies cover the eastern equatorial Pacific, all the way from just west of the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. This includes anomalies above +2C from about 90-170W, and even +3C anomalies within that 'warm tongue', a little less common than one month ago.
Earth System Research Laboratory : PSD : (none)

La Nina weather patterns bring drought conditions to the Southwest.
Exactly like the winter has been. The climate models are DEAD WRONG.

You dumb fuck. The current El Nino is not a model, it is an observed phenomenon. Tell us about all of this in July. The predictions are based on percentages of past El Nino's. So the weather may happen a bit earlier, or a bit later. Or, with a much lower probability, may not happen at all.

This is what is frustrating when communicating with people of very low scientific or mathematical background. They think they know everything, and show they know nothing at all. Grow up, use the tool in front of you, and actually learn something.

Man, you are one total moron. El Niño is a condition. The climate models predict weather patterns from that condition.

Predicted weather patterns that have turned out to be 100% WRONG.