The Truth about Tariffs

[task0778]

Let's square a few circles here.

1. Tariff revenue has been approximated to be around $180 billion for FY 2025. Some might say a bit more while others a bit less, but either way when your national debt in now $38 Trillion then that revenue doesn't move the needle much.
   
   
2. So far, prices have not dramatically increased because importers built up their inventories prior to the tariff implementation and managed to spread the tariff costs around to non-tariff things and ate most of the rest. But that's going to change in 2026 unless those tariffs are diminished, delayed, or dropped.
   
   
3. 2026 is obviously an election year, and I would not be surprised if inflation starts rising then. Trump will mitigate it by lowering the tariff hit on US businesses and consumers. He's going to claim success, citing how many countries have changed their tariffs on our exports, but most of that will not change the fact that US exports are more expensive in most places that domestic stuff. And our Balance of Trade deficit will return to what it used to be.
   
   
4. Let's not kid ourselves, eventually tariff hikes end up being paid for by US importers, businesses, and consumers. Deny it all you want to, but that has been the reality before and will be the reality going forward. It is laughable that Trump would claim foreign exporters will pay it; some might but most won't. They will find ways around the tariffs or they'll find other buyers. Or their gov't will hit US products in retaliation.
   
   
5. Past presidents in both parties have tried tariffs before but the result are always the same. You get a temporary gain in the Balance of Trade and the tariffs are reduced or rescinded and then it returns to what it was before. It is populist in nature, most economists do not see tariffs or any other protectionist measure as being successful in the long run.

 

[my2¢]

I haven't seen anything yet about the Supreme Court making any sort of ruling on the tariffs' legality.

I recall a month ago several companies filing cases with the court over the issue just before the deadline. By filing before the deadline, if ruled illegal, the tariff dough they paid to the government would be returned to them.

 

[Woodznutz]

Tariffs punish importers, dealers, and consumers of imported goods. However, many imports are still cheaper even with the tariffs.

 

[task0778]

I haven't seen anything yet about the Supreme Court making any sort of ruling on the tariffs' legality.

I recall a month ago several companies filing cases with the court over the issue just before the deadline. By filing before the deadline, if ruled illegal, the tariff dough they paid to the government would be returned to them.

Could go either way I suppose, but my guess is that they'll rule against Trump's broadbrush approach cuz tariffs are supposed to be more specific. Kinda like they did ruling against Biden's student loan policy.

 

[Cassandro]

Could go either way I suppose, but my guess is that they'll rule against Trump's broadbrush approach cuz tariffs are supposed to be more specific. Kinda like they did ruling against Biden's student loan policy.

Tariffs, like a hammers, can be both constructive and destructive. At ground level they can be uncomfortably loud, but the end result can be magnificent. "Truth" about tariffs doesn't exist before that is known.

 

[task0778]

Tariffs, like a hammers, can be both constructive and destructive. At ground level they can be uncomfortably loud, but the end result can be magnificent. "Truth" about tariffs doesn't exist before that is known.

I know of no instance where tariffs were magnificent. Sometimes they are a short-term success but not long-term, and usually it is the people on the lower end of the income ladder that get hurt the most. Tariffs are supposed to be (I think) applied to specific cases rather than hammering damn near everybody.

 

[Cassandro]

I know of no instance where tariffs were magnificent. Sometimes they are a short-term success but not long-term, and usually it is the people on the lower end of the income ladder that get hurt the most. Tariffs are supposed to be (I think) applied to specific cases rather than hammering damn near everybody.

Tariffs financed the magnificent rise of the United States from its inception through 1912, when they started being replaced by income taxes and public debt.

 

[task0778]

Tariffs financed the magnificent rise of the United States from its inception through 1912, when they started being replaced by income taxes and public debt.

I highly doubt that tariffs had much to do with rise of the US for the 1st 125 years or so. Correlation does not prove causation. C'mon now, you're trying convince me that the current revenue from Trump's tariffs has much of an impact of our $20 trillion economy? And BTW, public debt has existed since the days of Andrew Jackson.

 

[TNHarley]

I highly doubt that tariffs had much to do with rise of the US for the 1st 125 years or so. Correlation does not prove causation. C'mon now, you're trying convince me that the current revenue from Trump's tariffs has much of an impact of our $20 trillion economy? And BTW, public debt has existed since the days of Andrew Jackson.

It did. Tariffs made 80-90 percent of our revenue. Then we got stuck with the 16th amendment.
But that was back then. Now the govt is so bloated it wouldnt be possible.

 

[Oddball]

It did. Tariffs made 80-90 percent of our revenue. Then we got stuck with the 16th amendment.
But that was back then. Now the govt is so bloated it wouldnt be possible.

And those weren't even "tariffs", properly defined.

Constitutional duties, imposts, and excises are specific levies to pay for specific lawful State functions and operations.

Nowadays, "tariff" is used to describe any kind of tax on an imported item.

 

[task0778]

It did. Tariffs made 80-90 percent of our revenue. Then we got stuck with the 16th amendment.
But that was back then. Now the govt is so bloated it wouldnt be possible.

And you think that the gov't had that much to do with the rise of America prior to WWI? What did the US Gov't do that was instrumental in the economic growth of the US? The fact that tariff revenue kept the federal gov't running does not mean those revenues contributed in any major way.

 

[TNHarley]

And you think that the gov't had that much to do with the rise of America prior to WWI? What did the US Gov't do that was instrumental in the economic growth of the US? The fact that tariff revenue kept the federal gov't running does not mean those revenues contributed in any major way.

Thats the thing, back then, the govt rarely got involved in the private sector. Now they try to control it.

 

[TheInfiniteSadness]

Let's square a few circles here.

1. Tariff revenue has been approximated to be around $180 billion for FY 2025. Some might say a bit more while others a bit less, but either way when your national debt in now $38 Trillion then that revenue doesn't move the needle much.
   
   
2. So far, prices have not dramatically increased because importers built up their inventories prior to the tariff implementation and managed to spread the tariff costs around to non-tariff things and ate most of the rest. But that's going to change in 2026 unless those tariffs are diminished, delayed, or dropped.
   
   
3. 2026 is obviously an election year, and I would not be surprised if inflation starts rising then. Trump will mitigate it by lowering the tariff hit on US businesses and consumers. He's going to claim success, citing how many countries have changed their tariffs on our exports, but most of that will not change the fact that US exports are more expensive in most places that domestic stuff. And our Balance of Trade deficit will return to what it used to be.
   
   
4. Let's not kid ourselves, eventually tariff hikes end up being paid for by US importers, businesses, and consumers. Deny it all you want to, but that has been the reality before and will be the reality going forward. It is laughable that Trump would claim foreign exporters will pay it; some might but most won't. They will find ways around the tariffs or they'll find other buyers. Or their gov't will hit US products in retaliation.
   
   
5. Past presidents in both parties have tried tariffs before but the result are always the same. You get a temporary gain in the Balance of Trade and the tariffs are reduced or rescinded and then it returns to what it was before. It is populist in nature, most economists do not see tariffs or any other protectionist measure as being successful in the long run.

Let's not kid ourselves, eventually tariff hikes end up being paid for by US importers, businesses, and consumers.

I have to correct you on that statement. Tariffs are automatically collected when a product enters the US and paid for by the entity importing them.

"$180 Billion"

$180 Billion divided by $2000 means a maximum of 90 million people will collect Jennifer's refunds. Of course this means "Jennifer trump" lied about bring down the debt.

 

[task0778]

Let's not kid ourselves, eventually tariff hikes end up being paid for by US importers, businesses, and consumers.

I have to correct you on that statement. Tariffs are automatically collected when a product enters the US and paid for by the entity importing them.

"$180 Billion"

$180 Billion divided by $2000 means a maximum of 90 million people will collect Jennifer's refunds. Of course this means "Jennifer trump" lied about bring down the debt.

I have to correct you on that statement. Tariffs are automatically collected when a product enters the US and paid for by the entity importing them.

True. And then the importers pass at least some of the tariff cost to the businesses that they deliver the stuff to, and the businesses eventually pass the tariff cost down the line to eventually the consumer, as I stated in my preceding statement.



$180 Billion divided by $2000 means a maximum of 90 million people will collect Jennifer's refunds. Of course this means "Jennifer trump" lied about bring down the debt.

Don't know who the **** Jennifer is and don't care. But that $2000 check is not in the mail and may never happen. First, the Supreme Court may rule Trump's tariffs to be unconstitutional and at least some of that money might have to be returned. Second, the Congress has to authorize any such rebate and that bill may never pass in either chamber of Congress. Third, the amount ($2000) or the number of people who receive it is in some doubt, assuming the bill is passed. Your math is good but is based on assumptions that cannot be supported. And fourth, you're right about Trump lying about his tariffs will bring down the national debt. Politicians and presidents from both parties have lied about that, not just Trump.

 

[Dekster]

Let's not kid ourselves, eventually tariff hikes end up being paid for by US importers, businesses, and consumers.

I have to correct you on that statement. Tariffs are automatically collected when a product enters the US and paid for by the entity importing them.

"$180 Billion"

$180 Billion divided by $2000 means a maximum of 90 million people will collect Jennifer's refunds. Of course this means "Jennifer trump" lied about bring down the debt.

Not always. Sometimes if the tariff was not collected and paid by a foreign shipper, your package from wherever will end up in the hands of the post office and you will have to go there and pay the tariff to get the item. It has never happened to me but I know that it can. We order stuff from europe from time to time. It has always arrived but I am not clear looking at some of it whether the seller paid the tariffs/included in price, it just slipped through because the USPS is pretty crap at tracking anything, or if they hitch to the personal exemption like when you bring back goods from overseas. None of our orders have been over $800 at one time, but my wife has gotten pretty close ordering over-priced wool sweaters from Ireland.

 

[Ringo]

 

[task0778]

Not always. Sometimes if the tariff was not collected and paid by a foreign shipper, your package from wherever will end up in the hands of the post office and you will have to go there and pay the tariff to get the item. It has never happened to me but I know that it can. We order stuff from europe from time to time. It has always arrived but I am not clear looking at some of it whether the seller paid the tariffs/included in price, it just slipped through because the USPS is pretty crap at tracking anything, or if they hitch to the personal exemption like when you bring back goods from overseas. None of our orders have been over $800 at one time, but my wife has gotten pretty close ordering over-priced wool sweaters from Ireland.

Did not know that, has never happened to me. So, I guess it's a sorta bad idea to buy online direct from a foreign exporter. I pay particular attention to the price and any shipping or delivery fees which maybe includes a tariff cost. Not sure if it's legal for a US based merchant like Amazon or Walmart to sell you something without disclosing an additional shipping or delivery fee. I ain't paying any tariff cost if I can help it.

I do not believe foreign shippers collect payment for a tariff, my understanding is that the importing company pays the tariff at the point of entry into the US. You're saying the foreign exporter sent the stuff straight to you so there isn't any importing US company and USPS is therefore required to hold your purchase until you pay the tariff.

 

[Dekster]

Did not know that, has never happened to me. So, I guess it's a sorta bad idea to buy online direct from a foreign exporter. I pay particular attention to the price and any shipping or delivery fees which maybe includes a tariff cost. Not sure if it's legal for a US based merchant like Amazon or Walmart to sell you something without disclosing an additional shipping or delivery fee. I ain't paying any tariff cost if I can help it.

I googled it after I posted it. apparently the $800 personal exemption on shipped packages ended in August so now you may get whacked with tariffs on delivery no matter what on things bought overseas at either the per package tariff rate or the purchase price rate. Not clear when which applies or if you have an option other than the per package looks steep for 1 or 2 incidental items. I mostly have ordered food-related stuff so I guess I will have to start looking for domestic sellers who already have what I want onshore. My wife mostly buys clothes and girly stuff. She is on her own on that one if USPS knocks on my door wanting $200 on the spot.

 

[task0778]

I will have to start looking for domestic sellers who already have what I want onshore.

Yeah, pretty much what I do.

 

[Hafar1014]

Let's square a few circles here.

1. Tariff revenue has been approximated to be around $180 billion for FY 2025. Some might say a bit more while others a bit less, but either way when your national debt in now $38 Trillion then that revenue doesn't move the needle much.
   
   
2. So far, prices have not dramatically increased because importers built up their inventories prior to the tariff implementation and managed to spread the tariff costs around to non-tariff things and ate most of the rest. But that's going to change in 2026 unless those tariffs are diminished, delayed, or dropped.
   
   
3. 2026 is obviously an election year, and I would not be surprised if inflation starts rising then. Trump will mitigate it by lowering the tariff hit on US businesses and consumers. He's going to claim success, citing how many countries have changed their tariffs on our exports, but most of that will not change the fact that US exports are more expensive in most places that domestic stuff. And our Balance of Trade deficit will return to what it used to be.
   
   
4. Let's not kid ourselves, eventually tariff hikes end up being paid for by US importers, businesses, and consumers. Deny it all you want to, but that has been the reality before and will be the reality going forward. It is laughable that Trump would claim foreign exporters will pay it; some might but most won't. They will find ways around the tariffs or they'll find other buyers. Or their gov't will hit US products in retaliation.
   
   
5. Past presidents in both parties have tried tariffs before but the result are always the same. You get a temporary gain in the Balance of Trade and the tariffs are reduced or rescinded and then it returns to what it was before. It is populist in nature, most economists do not see tariffs or any other protectionist measure as being successful in the long run.

It can pay off the annual deficit. Then we pay down the debt. Unless democrats get elected then spending goes up.
Prices dont increase(across the board) because demand drops and prices drop. Manufacturers pay the tariff. The rate of inflation is slowing. Research by the Atlanta fed showed tariffs actually reduce inflation. The study covered 100 years.
Since consumers dont have to buy and manufacturers must sell or go broke they will cut prices.
Trump has proved tariffs work.