Many "elite" law schools have lower percentile bar exam passage rates than LSAT scores. How do you explain that?
I can understand easily how is a connection between LSAT scores and one's undergraduate school performance, and between one's performance in law school. Similarly, I think that one's bar exam passing rate/figures are correlated to one's performance in law school. That there is an observed coincidence such as the one you suggest above isn't shocking; however, I can't say with any credibility that it is a causal one. My gut says it's merely coincidental.
A
study by the Law School Admission Council states that school performance and LSAT scores are the two best predictors of whether law school students will pass a bar exam. The organization makes that statement based on a "probability of passing" formula/model it developed for the study. Even though the researchers made that assertion, one that on the face of things would seem to suggest the sort of correlation you mention above, they make a point to state explicitly:
When LSAT score and LGPA were already in the explanatory model, the data did not show that greater odds of passing were associated with the clusters that included the most highly selective law schools or the highest credentialed law students. Instead, the model showed that for a fixed LGPA and a fixed LSAT score, the probability of passing the bar was higher for graduates of schools included in the cluster primarily populated by public law schools that were moderately selective and among the least expensive of all U.S. law schools. This cluster was labeled Cluster 3. Importantly, the parameters obtained from the model were based on observed data for this study sample and they helped explain the relationships that were observed. The model is not a causative model and does not imply that being in cluster 3 schools causes higher pass rates than being in cluster 1, 5, or 6 schools. Rather, it reports that for participants in this study, pass rates differed by law school cluster when LGPA and LSAT score were the same. Determining whether there is a causative relationship between law school and bar exam outcome and, if there is, identifying the factors that contribute to that relationship, should be the subjects of future research.
The study referenced was published in 1998. I don't know if there are subsequent studies that examine the causal relationship of which they wrote. The
dean of Southern Illinois University Law School thinks there isn't a correlation between LSAT scores and bar passage rates. For the
New York Times (
NYT), he stated, "Our experience has been that someone with a 147 score could pass the bar and someone else with a 160 could fail, so we don’t think that there is necessarily a relationship between the test and people’s ability to pass the bar."
If you happen to be asking why is the overall percentage of folks who pass any given year's bar exam lower than in prior years, you may want to look at the phenomenon of declining law school applications. It appears from
the comments of Michael Allen, a managing partner at Lateral Link (a headhunting firm for lawyers), "[M]any law schools are resorting to transfers to boost their student body without affecting their U.S. News and World Report ranking. Because the ranking factors only first-year applicants, law schools can reap the benefit of lucrative transfer students while maintaining their status quo in the rankings."
Given that assertion, I think one would need to determine whether the folks who graduate from elite law schools and who don't pass the bar(s) for which they sit are largely transfer students (two year students of a given school) or whether they are evenly or mostly three year students of the school(s) in question. Additionally, based on the
NYT article, it seems that there may also be a trend whereby law schools of all degrees of renown are willingly have first year classes comprised students who, overall, earned lower LSAT scores than did the first year classes from previous years.
So there you have my explanation:
- Increased numbers of transfer enrollees whose LSAT and undergraduate performance didn't permit them to gain first year admission to elite law schools.
- In the face of lower application rates, elite law schools have been admitting somewhat more less well qualified first year students.
I didn't make the case for this above, but I think most folks can understand how, unlike other arms of a university, a law school depends heavily on tuition because the opportunity for research grants and commissioned studies is far lower than for any number of other disciplines. With that understood, the "profit" motive and its connection with the quantity of students admitted is pretty easy to see. In any profit driven endeavor, it's unavoidable that "good enough," as opposed to absolute standards of utmost excellence, becomes the bar (no pun).
I suspect that we'll observe a reversal in the bar passage rates if/when the pool of super highly prepared applicants increases. Too, I suspect that the cost of admission to elite schools plays a meaningful role in the quantity of highly qualified students they admit. A likely thing going on is that there aren't enough rich folks who can and will pay their way to law school actually applying to elite law schools. I don't know if that's so, but if it is, it would suggest that non-rich folks who apply and get accepted, but who don't receive enough scholarship support to attend, opt to go to "good, but not elite" schools that cost less. When that happens, it should come as no surprise, that elite schools will admit slightly less able rich kids in small numbers so that the school can still meet its funding objectives. We may not care for the idea that law school admissions has a business aspect to it, but given that they are so dependent on tuition, in periods of declining applications, the business imperative rears its head where previously it might not have.