Anomalism
Diamond Member
- Dec 1, 2020
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Iran's GDP before this war was approximately 367 billion and their economy was already fragile.
In ten days this is what they’ve lost:
Their navy is essentially gone. 17+ ships sunk including their primary frigate and most operational submarine. Their air force has been systematically eliminated. Their missile arsenal is down 86%. Drone capacity down 73%. Nuclear facilities struck. Oil refineries burning. IRGC command centers destroyed. Parliament targeted. The Assembly of Experts was bombed while they were mid-session trying to elect a new supreme leader. State broadcaster gone. The Grand Bazaar damaged. Oil exports at zero with Hormuz mined. Banks restricting cash withdrawals. Internet blocked. 13 health infrastructure sites hit.
Conservative damage estimate: $100-150 billion. Aggressive estimate including reconstruction: $150-250 billion. As a percentage of Iranian GDP that's 27% to 68% of their entire economy. Gone in ten days.
Now scale that to America.
27% of US GDP is $7.6 trillion.
68% of US GDP is $19 trillion.
For context the entire Iraq war cost the US approximately $2 trillion over 20 years, roughly 9% of current GDP spread across two decades. Iran absorbed the equivalent of three to seven Iraq wars worth of economic damage relative to their economy in under 2 weeks. They’re fucked.
In ten days this is what they’ve lost:
Their navy is essentially gone. 17+ ships sunk including their primary frigate and most operational submarine. Their air force has been systematically eliminated. Their missile arsenal is down 86%. Drone capacity down 73%. Nuclear facilities struck. Oil refineries burning. IRGC command centers destroyed. Parliament targeted. The Assembly of Experts was bombed while they were mid-session trying to elect a new supreme leader. State broadcaster gone. The Grand Bazaar damaged. Oil exports at zero with Hormuz mined. Banks restricting cash withdrawals. Internet blocked. 13 health infrastructure sites hit.
Conservative damage estimate: $100-150 billion. Aggressive estimate including reconstruction: $150-250 billion. As a percentage of Iranian GDP that's 27% to 68% of their entire economy. Gone in ten days.
Now scale that to America.
27% of US GDP is $7.6 trillion.
68% of US GDP is $19 trillion.
For context the entire Iraq war cost the US approximately $2 trillion over 20 years, roughly 9% of current GDP spread across two decades. Iran absorbed the equivalent of three to seven Iraq wars worth of economic damage relative to their economy in under 2 weeks. They’re fucked.
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