A quick thread about the "Russia planned a three day war" myth
It's clear at this point that this claim simply is not going to go away and will remain the last line of argumentative defense for many people, so let's think about this in a little more depth for a moment.
I know that a lot of us know this already, but it bears repeating that the claim that Russia planned for the war to be over in a matter of days is entirely an American fabrication. It seems to have originated with General Milley and then grew through incestuous amplification.
It is obvious why such a claim would be useful. It sets an impossibly low baseline for Ukrainian defeat and allows any Russian victory to be presented as pyrrhic and embarrassing.
While the "3-day war" line has never been sourced or promoted by any Russian political or military authorities, it is possible that Russia had some hope for a short conflict. *However*, this would mean something entirely different than the way it's presented in the west.
It is likely that Russia at least hoped that the initial assault would lead to *political* collapse in Ukraine. This is very different from saying that Russia planned to completely destroy and defeat the Ukrainian army in a matter of days.
Modern armies are simply impossible to destroy in a single multiday battle. However, given that Ukraine is a notoriously corrupt and kleptocratic country, it was not unreasonable to hold some hope that the invasion would trigger political meltdown with elites abandoning ship.
As is clear by the enormous quantities of ammunition, material, replacement vehicles, and well planned maneuver scheme, Russia clearly had the resources in place for a long war. They are not having any difficulties sustaining their operation.
What seems most rational to say is that Russia mapped two paths to victory, one political and one military. In the political scenario, the Kiev regime would have disintegrated and the war would have indeed been short.
In the military victory scenario, a full campaign would be needed just as we are seeing. Russia prepared militarily for a full length war, while no doubt keeping fingers crossed that this would be unnecessary due to political collapse in Kiev.
The bottom line is to remember that when we talk about a "short war" (however many days that means) that's always referring to a scenario where Ukraine simply didn't have the will to fight. But clearly, the Russians were fully prepared to fight the war to the end.
In short: Russia would have been delighted if Ukraine rolled over without a fight, but they were materially prepared for a full scale war, which they are now winning.
www.express.co.uk
