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Today's Lesson in Black Violence
Police officers: Listen up.
The trial of the Carr brothers for the murder of four Whites in Wichita has drawn interest on the Internet, and there may be persons who wonder how changing racial demographics will affect the murder rate. All calculations to follow are based on data supplied by the US Department of Justice.
Part 1. Revision of Statistics.
“White” (in quotation marks) refers to those crime offenders categorized as being White by race by the Justice Department. The Justice Department uses its “White” category as a racial miscellaneous bin. “Whites,” so defined, include most Latino crime perpetrators, and it also includes most US offenders among Arabs, Jews, and occasionally even reachier departures from the original European standard.
The following facts are derived from data found in the FBI Uniform Crime Reports for the years 1995 through 2000.
The average Black commits murder about 7.1 times more often than the average "White."
The average Black commits interracial murder about 13.8 times more often than the average "White."
The average Black kills a "White" 15.9 times more often than the reverse.
A good “ballpark” assumption is that real Whites are responsible for committing about 75% of the crimes attributed to “Whites” by the Justice Department, with the remaining 25% being the work of offenders who are not White, regardless of any contrary opinions that the Justice Department may have. After eliminating the crimes presumably committed by non-Whites (mostly Latinos), we reach these conclusions:
The average Black commits murder about 9.5 times more often than the average White.
The average Black commits interracial murder about 18.4 times more often than the average White.
The average Black kills a White 21.2 times more often than the reverse.
Slight variations around those values may result, depending on the degree of culpability you assign to the Justice Department for its racial misclassification sins.
Same-race murders are more common than interracial murders for both Whites and Blacks. About 15.4% of Black-perpetrator murders have White victims. Conversely, about 6.6% of murders committed by someone whom the Justice Department regards as “White” have Black victims. While we can’t be sure of our precision, we can factor in the usual percentage to obtain a plausible guess that only five percent of White-perpetrator murders have Black victims.
Part 2. The Black-White Crime Gap.
In the analysis that follows, the estimates of the four racial derivatives of the annual murder rate with respect to race are the result of averaging the relevant data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics for the years 1990-1999 (adjusted to remove Hispanics from the White perpetrator totals). The resulting calculations will be based on that average and will not necessarily reflect the actual figures for any particular year.
Each million (real) Whites in a country contributes these numbers of murders per year:
White on White 23.5
White on Black 1.65
Each million Blacks in a country contributes these numbers of murders per year:
Black on White 35.8
Black on Black 197
A country having a population of 196 million Whites and 32 million Blacks (as the US did in 2000) will have this murder profile:
White on White, 4606 murders, 37.2%
White on Black, 323 murders, 2.6%
Black on White, 1146 murders, 9.3%
Black on Black, 6304 murders, 50.9%
total: 12379 murders
Interracial, 1469 murders, 11.9%
Odds of a random White being a murder victim: 1 in 34,075
A country having 114 million Whites and 114 million Blacks will have this murder profile:
White on White, 2679 murders, 9.1%
White on Black, 188 murders, 0.64%
Black on White, 4801 murders, 13.9%
Black on Black, 22458 murders, 76.4%
total: 29406 murders
Interracial, 4269 murders 14.5%
Odds of a random White being a murder victim: 1 in 16,864
A country having 32 million Whites and 196 million Blacks will have this murder profile (assuming no organized attempt to exterminate the Whites):
White on White, 752 murders, 1.6%
White on Black, 53 murders, 0.11%
Black on White, 7017 murders, 15.1%
Black on Black, 38612 murders, 83.2%
total: 46434 murders
Interracial, 7070 murders, 15.2%
Odds of a random White being a murder victim: 1 in 4,119
If the numbers of Blacks and Whites in America were suddenly reversed, the average White would be 8.3 times more likely to be murdered than he is with the racial percentages that currently exist.
A cautionary word is necessary here. Black violence rises faster than linearly with an increasing Black percentage of the population. At some point, the Blacks would use their control of the political machinery to exterminate the Whites, as has occurred in San Domingo and Belgian Congo, and is happening now in Zimbabwe. As dismal as the figures seem, especially in the latter case, the assumption of linearity in the above estimates is very optimistic for Whites.
Part 3. Racial Composition and Murder Rates.
Reciprocal odds for being murdered in an area with...
(per year) For... For...
Whites Blacks
No Blacks 42553 ---
10% Blacks 36393 4720
20% Blacks 30816 4912
30% Blacks 25745 4979
40% Blacks 21112 5013
50% Blacks 16864 5034
60% Blacks 12953 5048
70% Blacks 9343 5058
80% Blacks 5999 5066
90% Blacks 2893 5071
All Blacks --- 5076
The larger the “reciprocal odds” are, the smaller is the chance of being murdered. For a White person in a half-White, half-Black society, his chance of being murdered is 1-in-16863, each year. (Always remember that this assumes linear Black violence and that the actual situation is worse than this, especially in areas where Blacks have become the majority.) These victimization odds shows one thing very clearly, namely, that each race suffers from the presence of the other. It also shows that Whites suffer more from the presence of Blacks than vice versa.
In the following graph, you can see how the interracial murder percentage depends on the racial composition of an area. There are a few assumptions built into it that you must know. First, itÂ’s assumed that no third race is present: only Blacks and Whites. Second, itÂ’s assumed that there are always a few members of the minority race around, even at the extremes of the graph. Third, Black violence is assumed to be linear (so take the curve with a grain of salt above the 50% Black mark).
The interracial percentage of murders has a clear dependency on the racial composition of the population. When the population is nearly (but not quite) all White, only 6.56% of murders are interracial. When the population is nearly (but not quite) all Black, 15.38% of murders are interracial—assuming that the murders remain random and assuming that the minority race doesn’t get completely exterminated.
Most of the rise in the interracial percentage comes early. With only 10% Blacks, interracial murders are already 11% of all murders, and by the time the society is half-and-half, interracial murders reach 14.5%.
In Part 1 of this article, I used the FBI Uniform Crime Reports to determine that the average Black kills a White 21.2 times more often than the reverse. Probably because of roundoff error, the data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics puts that same ratio at 21.7, likewise after having estimated the number of Latinos and etcetera in the "White" offender totals.
The per capita ratio of Black-on-White to White-on-Black murders remains at 21.7, regardless of any shift in the racial percentages. That ratio is a measure of an intrinisic difference between these two races, regarding the relative propensity for violence and capacity for racial hatred. The per capita Black-to-White ratio of murder perpetration (without regard for the races of the victims) is 9.5, and it also measures an intrinsic difference between the races; however, this is a measure regarding the propensity for violence alone.
An inspection of these two ratios suggests that Blacks have roughly twice (2.28) the capacity for hatred as Whites do. ThatÂ’s a formidible advantage for Blacks that we Whites must work hard to overcome. BlacksÂ’ ability to hate gives them a strong motivation to organize.
In order to appreciate the murder situation properly, you must multiply each of the racial derivative curves by an appropriate line indicating the per capita rate, by corresponding points, across the graph.
Once again, remember that the above graph assumes that Blacks, where they have become a majority, will not militarize against the Whites, and that's almost certainly a poor assumption. County level crime and demographic data, as well as the history of certain foreign countries, reveals that Black violence usually accelerates (becomes non-linear) when the political power in a region has fallen into their hands.