The New Normal That's Coming

[william the wie]

Tax cuts can produce only so much GDP growth, sensible deregulation can only go so far in further GDP growth, merit based immigration and infrastructure can only produce so much growth. Also the impact of further growth will shrink.

Going from 2.5% to 4% means going from @ 29 years to double goods and services the average person can consume and/or save to 18 years. That will lead to some increase in early retirements. But increasing by another 1.5% to 5.5% doubles real income every 13 years. That in turn means more early retirements. This will be a virtuous cycle while it lasts but with a shrinking labor force built in much like what is happening in China and Japan illegal immigration will make a return.

 

[jwoodie]

Do you think a sustained 5.5% is possible without concomitant inflation? I think 2.5% over inflation is the best we can hope for over the long haul.

 

[william the wie]

Do you think a sustained 5.5% is possible without concomitant inflation? I think 2.5% over inflation is the best we can hope for over the long haul.

The assumption of steady/sustained growth is dubious and all attempts to achieve it have failed but it is still taught in graduate economic courses. The use of counter cyclical policy is supposed to be the cure but it has never worked, if it did then the Great Depression, DotCom Bomb and the meltdown would have never happened. Confirmation bias is the attempt to impose order on Chaotical systems. For example, no one has yet come up with a coherent explanation of how the growth "recession" at the tail end the Eisenhower administration nearly 60 years ago.

 

[Kondor3]

Another alarmist-apologist for Illegal Aliens.

No Sale.

 

[william the wie]

Another alarmist-apologist for Illegal Aliens.

No Sale.

Just recognition of how opinions swing.