The New Cold War

[onedomino]

Soviets are past.
Russia is a friendly country, with which cultural, economic , political exchange and Anti-Terrorism works very well.
We are friendly countries vice-versa and business activities cement this for the future. Our bilateral trade is 10 times higher than that of Russia-Iran.
Russia is a mix of federal and central state. Turkey has direct ethnic links to Russian authnomous Republics like Tatarstan, Baschkortistan and other authonomous Republics of Russia which are still in Russian federal system.
To deepen ties with these authonomous Republics goes via Moscow. And it goes very well if i may add.

I just wait for Russia to open up ressource sector for Turkish firms, like they did for Italy, so Turkey can produce natural gas direct there.
Currently natural gas which Turkey imports from Russia is 50/50 Italian-Russian export.
Will be a matter of time till Turkish firms will be investing in ressources there, as we expand in energy sector to other countries but to Russia not yet.


"Russia Today" is indeed government financed, so what?
I am educated enough, to know what is propaganda and what matches my view of certain things.
I also watch sundays at CNN always the show with Wolf Blitzer.
I also receive via Satellite Aljazeera, France 24 and Deutsche Welle all in English language.
"Russia Today" is part of this being update on what is going around by different perspectives.
You have no liability to watch anything i provide. But if you would, you would know more about Russia allthough via Internet you can inform too.
This is no judgement about your knowledge of Russia, as i do not presumen someone's knowledge about different things.


My Avatar is no joke. It will become reality.
My signature is a joke, kind of parody.
But i can replace it with Neo-Ottoman miltary music.
And i must disappaoint you about my Grandchildren still waiting for entrance to EU. Negotiation about EU entrance advances. There are 34 negotiation chapters. Will last maybe 8 years to advance them all, then we will see.
Countries like France have added a referendum to their constitution under Chirac about EU expansion.
Sarkozy will delete referendum passage of French constitution.
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=122225
Maybe because France wants to join military wing of NATO again and Turkey can veto that.
Or EU rapid reaction force wants to use NATO capacities and Turkey also can veto that, and EU countries have no money to set-up paralell capacities to NATO, nor USA does want this.

So in about 8 years we will know more. Turkey will in 8 years have surpassed notedly an economy size of 1 trillion $. And will be absolute dominator in its pivotal region of Southeast Europe, Middle-East, North Africa till to Hindukush in Afghanistan.
EU business is lobbyist of Turkish entrance because of business opportunities.
EU strategists are lobbyist of Turkish entrance because of Energy and Turkish military power (which grows paralell with economy) and Turkish reach to critical areas.
With Turkey EU will not be a paper tiger anymore.

That's it.
But Turkish people will decide theirselves if to join EU or not.
My grandchildrens will arise in a Turkey which is either in that time due to population size absolute Power within EU and thereby dominates it oivotal region, or a Turkey which has aligned itself with Russia and Central Asia and also dominates its pivotal region.
I do not know how old you are, onedomino, but i think you will live more then 8 years and see what will happen.
Turkey will give direction in the 21st century to different Worldpowers whether there influence in Eurasia is blocked or multiplied by Turkish direction.
It is not so, as if Turkey is a weak and unwanted bride driving directionless through history.
Turkey is one of the key countries in this century, even more when you add that we are there where we are as a democracy with 99% muslims and from year to year raise our soft-power to the whole muslim world.
Only +200 Mio Indonesia will be more stronger in the long run, but Indonesia will be absorbed in Pacific by other powers like China and is out of business by its location.
Turkey on the other hand is in the centre of Mid-East, Europe and North-Africa with great history, soft-power and rising philosophy of Neo-Ottomanism, meaning everywhere where Ottoman were Turkey will again be, be it by practical power or by theoretical power (soft-power).

Canavar, below is an example of what side your new Soviet pals are on. As Israel recently prepared to eliminate a Syrian nuclear weapons facility, the New Soviets warned Syria that Israel was about to attack. That is the reality of your "Brothers of the Black Sea." Turkey is lining up on the wrong side. The US State Department should argue for the cancellation of both the recent Turk F-16 order and Turk participation in the JSF F-35 program. Then Turkey can be content with being on the wrong end of combat result ratios such as the F-15's 104 to 0 record against Soviet built aircraft. In fact, to show how sanguine we are with recent Turk political activity, maybe the US should ship the Turk F-16 order to Greece. But such a move might undermine the Turk military which may soon be the only significant secular institution left in Turkey. How long before Turkey turns into Pakistan? Certainly the Turk civilian government is increasingly Islamist. To what degree has the military been infiltrated? Canavar, what happened to your prediction that Turkey would invade northern Iraq? Could it be that false bluster was timed for the 22 July national election? Or did the Turk military get instructions from the US Central Command to stand down? Probably both. Could it be that Turk military chest thumping is as detached from reality as the extreme anti American reporting that constantly appears in the Turkishish media?

From The Sunday Times
September 16, 2007

Israelis ‘Blew Apart Syrian Nuclear Cache’

Secret raid on Korean shipment
Uzi Mahnaimi in Tel Aviv, Sarah Baxter in Washington and Michael Sheridan

complete article: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article2461421.ece

It was just after midnight when the 69th Squadron of Israeli F15Is crossed the Syrian coast-line. On the ground, Syria’s formidable air defences went dead. An audacious raid on a Syrian target 50 miles from the Iraqi border was under way.

At a rendezvous point on the ground, a Shaldag air force commando team was waiting to direct their laser beams at the target for the approaching jets. The team had arrived a day earlier, taking up position near a large underground depot. Soon the bunkers were in flames.

Ten days after the jets reached home, their mission was the focus of intense speculation this weekend amid claims that Israel believed it had destroyed a cache of nuclear materials from North Korea.

The Israeli government was not saying. “The security sources and IDF [Israeli Defence Forces] soldiers are demonstrating unusual courage,” said Ehud Olmert, the prime minister. “We naturally cannot always show the public our cards.”

The Syrians were also keeping mum. “I cannot reveal the details,” said Farouk al-Sharaa, the vice-president. “All I can say is the military and political echelon is looking into a series of responses as we speak. Results are forthcoming.” The official story that the target comprised weapons destined for Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shi’ite group, appeared to be crumbling in the face of widespread scepticism.

Andrew Semmel, a senior US State Department official, said Syria might have obtained nuclear equipment from “secret suppliers”, and added that there were a “number of foreign technicians” in the country.

Asked if they could be North Korean, he replied: “There are North Korean people there. There’s no question about that.” He said a network run by AQ Khan, the disgraced creator of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, could be involved.

But why would nuclear material be in Syria? Known to have chemical weapons, was it seeking to bolster its arsenal with something even more deadly?

Alternatively, could it be hiding equipment for North Korea, enabling Kim Jong-il to pretend to be giving up his nuclear programme in exchange for economic aid? Or was the material bound for Iran, as some authorities in America suggest?

According to Israeli sources, preparations for the attack had been going on since late spring, when Meir Dagan, the head of Mossad, presented Olmert with evidence that Syria was seeking to buy a nuclear device from North Korea.

The Israeli spy chief apparently feared such a device could eventually be installed on North-Korean-made Scud-C missiles.

“This was supposed to be a devastating Syrian surprise for Israel,” said an Israeli source. “We’ve known for a long time that Syria has deadly chemical warheads on its Scuds, but Israel can’t live with a nuclear warhead.”

An expert on the Middle East, who has spoken to Israeli participants in the raid, told yesterday’s Washington Post that the timing of the raid on September 6 appeared to be linked to the arrival three days earlier of a ship carrying North Korean material labelled as cement but suspected of concealing nuclear equipment.

The target was identified as a northern Syrian facility that purported to be an agricultural research centre on the Euphrates river. Israel had been monitoring it for some time, concerned that it was being used to extract uranium from phosphates.

According to an Israeli air force source, the Israeli satellite Ofek 7, launched in June, was diverted from Iran to Syria. It sent out high-quality images of a northeastern area every 90 minutes, making it easy for air force specialists to spot the facility.

Early in the summer Ehud Barak, the defence minister, had given the order to double Israeli forces on its Golan Heights border with Syria in anticipation of possible retaliation by Damascus in the event of air strikes.

Sergei Kirpichenko, the Russian ambassador to Syria, warned President Bashar al-Assad last month that Israel was planning an attack, but suggested the target was the Golan Heights.

Israeli military intelligence sources claim Syrian special forces moved towards the Israeli outpost of Mount Hermon on the Golan Heights. Tension rose, but nobody knew why.

At this point, Barak feared events could spiral out of control. The decision was taken to reduce the number of Israeli troops on the Golan Heights and tell Damascus the tension was over. Syria relaxed its guard shortly before the Israeli Defence Forces struck.

Only three Israeli cabinet ministers are said to have been in the know � Olmert, Barak and Tzipi Livni, the foreign minister. America was also consulted. According to Israeli sources, American air force codes were given to the Israeli air force attaché in Washington to ensure Israel’s F15Is would not mistakenly attack their US counterparts.

Once the mission was under way, Israel imposed draconian military censorship and no news of the operation emerged until Syria complained that Israeli aircraft had violated its airspace. Syria claimed its air defences had engaged the planes, forcing them to drop fuel tanks to lighten their loads as they fled.

But intelligence sources suggested it was a highly successful Israeli raid on nuclear material supplied by North Korea.

Washington was rife with speculation last week about the precise nature of the operation. One source said the air strikes were a diversion for a daring Israeli commando raid, in which nuclear materials were intercepted en route to Iran and hauled to Israel. Others claimed they were destroyed in the attack.

There is no doubt, however, that North Korea is accused of nuclear cooperation with Syria, helped by AQ Khan’s network. John Bolton, who was undersecretary for arms control at the State Department, told the United Nations in 2004 the Pakistani nuclear scientist had “several other” customers besides Iran, Libya and North Korea.

Some of his evidence came from the CIA, which had reported to Congress that it viewed “Syrian nuclear intentions with growing concern”.

“I’ve been worried for some time about North Korea and Iran outsourcing their nuclear programmes,” Bolton said last week. Syria, he added, was a member of a “junior axis of evil”, with a well-established ambition to develop weapons of mass destruction.

The links between Syria and North Korea date back to the rule of Kim Il-sung and President Hafez al-Assad in the last century. In recent months, their sons have quietly ordered an increase in military and technical cooperation.

Foreign diplomats who follow North Korean affairs are taking note. There were reports of Syrian passengers on flights from Beijing to Pyongyang and sightings of Middle Eastern businessmen from sources who watch the trains from North Korea to China.

On August 14, Rim Kyong Man, the North Korean foreign trade minister, was in Syria to sign a protocol on “cooperation in trade and science and technology”. No details were released, but it caught Israel’s attention.

Syria possesses between 60 and 120 Scud-C missiles, which it has bought from North Korea over the past 15 years. Diplomats believe North Korean engineers have been working on extending their 300-mile range. It means they can be used in the deserts of northeastern Syria � the area of the Israeli strike.

The triangular relationship between North Korea, Syria and Iran continues to perplex intelligence analysts. Syria served as a conduit for the transport to Iran of an estimated £50m of missile components and technology sent by sea from North Korea. The same route may be in use for nuclear equipment.

 

[ekrem]

Onedomino, you do not understand that haveing good relations is a precondition to have same policies on different issues. It does not mean, that in order to have good relations with Russia there must be same policies on different issues.

Policies are followed by a nation's own interest. Otherwise it is suicidal. If policies match with Russia's then even better.
But it is not a precondition, nor does Turkey modify its own interests to have good relations with anybody.

Your example with Israel is very uncarefully selected by you. Press reports about Israel bombing "Syrian nuclear weapon facilities" is bullshit, meaning press reports and not you.
Russia is biggest ally in the world outside Mid-East of Syria.
Maybe Iran is centered on in media interest, but it does not change, that Syria is very depedent on Russia and also fom Turkey. Russia did zero Syrian debts, from Assad's father in 2005. Think it was about 10 billion $.
And Russia is delivring Syria weapons, which Russia does not export to every country and is Syria's buddy in UNSC or world lobbying.

If Syrians want to invest in nuclear power plants, then Russia will supply and Syria has every right for it.
But Syrians do not have this motive. Syria can raise electricity generation by simply udateing its Hydro-Dams. Most Dams in Syria are Soviet garbage from decades ago. Soviet technology which is not fitted for this region, as Syria does need Dams, which have turbines low on ground.
Soviet dams have turbines meters above from ground level. So syria needs abundant water flow to be able to let turbines work.

Turkey is in preparation to build a friendship dam together with Syria on Orontes river at bilateral boarder. It was announced by both state leaders and preparations advance.
Syria will learn engineering of geography-efficient Hydro-dams from Turkey, so that new Syrian dams can work 24/7/12 for decades and is not bind to winter months so that Water levels are hig to reach Soviet turbines.
Soviet is different climate zone. Also Turkey transfers to Syria wate-agrar techniques as we are there togther with Israel very advanced.
And Syria is dependent on Turkish trucks which pass their territory.
Also we are assisting them in setting up their first every Stock exchange.

So, what does this mean? Does this mean, by haveing good relations to Syria we must as a consequence have bad relations with Israel?
Don't think so.
There are even press reports, that Turkey gave Israel intelligence about bombed "things" in Syria.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1189411398606&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

Allthough this press report is also shit, as good inteligence is when noone knows what you are doing, and i do not think anyone knows what Turkish military and Turkish Intelligence is doing.
Turkish-Israel relations are very well.
In August, Israelis were again in Konya for Airforce training on "Anatolian Eeagle" training facilities:

Anatolian Eagle is one of the largest and most complex joint air force exercises in the world, paralleled only by Red Flag, held periodically at Nevada's Nellis Air Force Base, and the annual Maple Flag exercise in Canada.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2349

This should not become a Israel-Turkey thread, so i end my Israel words by saying, that we have strong relations. By haveing these it does not mean don't haveing relations with Syria or Russia.
Turkey is not such a bitch country being on one side. We are the only country around being able to talk to everyone.
This is a plus of Turkey being after 1923 to 90s isolationistic to outside, and now opening to outside.
All those problems of Mid-East we do not have, we can act independently and so we do by our interest to maximize our Interest.
Turkey is everywhere welcomed, be it in Moscow, Damascus, Tel-Aviv, Ryad or Teheran.
No one can piss us, as we (exclude Moscow) widen economical and military gap.
Everyone has to listen. Also Iraq, which currently does not listen, as they think as long as USA occupies their country, there is nothing to be feared from Turkey.
This is a short-term philosophy, and Iraq will place itself in power-politics of this region once it goes her way by itself and not under occupation by USA.
And under this proposition Iraq is a 200 grams dachshund, Saudi-Arabia the greyhound, Iran the pitbull and Turkey the 70kg Kangal.
And USA is the gene-mutated 3 meter dog, currently set-up Iraq as its own pilotage area.

You also said, that Turkey will become Pakistan...
Turkey will never become Pakistan, if it would, west has a big problem what Iran is nothing against.
How can someone compare Turkey, where civilian-debate focusses on things like opening headscarves for female Students so they do not have to study abroad, with anything other in Muslim world.
We are not comparable to any state existing on this earth.
Turkish nation decides itseld, and when something is adopted, then the devotion to our own history of Gökturks, Seldjuks and Ottomans. Not to Pakistan, Saudi-Arabia or Iran.
They in mid- to longterm will, if they are wise, follow our direction.
Turkish debate is not fixed to some Imams or Ayatollahs in any other muslim country. We go our own way, and foreign politics is set-up by interests and not religious links.

Turkey will get new constitution. It will be send to Parliament in January and onwards to Referendum to people.
This constitution will be the most civil constitution in Turkish Reublic history, updated to Turkish step to EU.
There is a 3 months time-gate for institutions, academics interest groups and society to discuss constitution template and then it will enter Parliament process and there will be modified in multi-partisan commissions, to match political reality of Turkey as academics think "Alice-in-wonderand"-alike.
Secular character of Turkish republic will remain, there will be more civil rights (religious unbound to monotheistic confession and more ethnic rights) and maybe Turkey even switches to State-President system from Prime-Ministry system.
Guidance for new constitution is not Pakistan or Saudi-Arabia but standards in EU, so negotiation with EU will exponentially advance, as things in negotiation chapters will be adopet completely in constitution rather then advaceing one by one chapter.

To Greece:
Greece's airforce is major French Rafale customer. Also Greece has debt to GDP of sums like 120%. Greece's engine is in 6th gear by 4000 R/PM.
Turkey is currently in 2nd shift by 3000 R/PM steadily gaining on speed.
Greece in relation to its size is one of strongest military country on earth. If not stronger then Israel.
But Greece's problem is that it has no industry (service related) and therefore also no militay industry.
It purchases, despite the best it can only purchase small quantities.
Turkey is quantity, should not misguide you about quality.

Turkey currently is self-sufficient in military industry by 37%. SSM (State military procurement agency) aims 50% by 2010.
We invest major bucks in military industry and thereby cooperate with allies like Germany, South-Korea and Italy.

With USA we do not have any weapons development. Even with China we developed artillery-rockets with 250 KM, equivalent to Russian ISKANDER missiles.
We produce, produced or financeing indigenious programs for
- MBT
- Rockets
- Frigates
- Kovettes
- Subs
- Howitzers
- Satellites (7 military satellites in 10 years)
- War Helicopters

and all we will build in quantities. Also the components be it MMW radar, Sonar, firecontrol system, mission computer, weapons and all related stuff we prooduce, produced ot are financeing to produce.
Times of being dependent to goodwill of foreign nations by things like software codes, mounting of new weapons to plattforms is over.

We only do not have programs for Airfighters. It is to much costly, where we can finance other critical platforms with that money, and our airforce is anyway happy with Lockheed Martin.
Turkey will get 116 F-35 in first batch.
16 will be VTOL for our Landing plattform docks.
2nd batch will replace our F-4 Terminator 2000 and F-5, which will require another 120-200 F-35.
Paralell to that we will have about 255 F-16 in latest Block 50/52 standard (52/50 is only difference of engine).
Lockheed Martin is our lobbyist against people's thinking like yours, onedomino.
This is big bucks not comparable with tiny Greece, whose engine is exploding with philosophy of keeping up with Turkey.
And by that USA is in no need of financeing Turkey like it does with it Israel, Egypt and Saudi-Arabia.
We are the strongest country around and arming-up of our neighbours is related to interrelation of them.
A country with potential with takeing on Turkey is not around, only Russia in North.

We are a militaristic nation with great ambitions to regain power of past, and our army budget will always be above NATO standard whilst economy is growing.
We are biggest threat to anyone in region trying to piss us, comeing to punish them.
With our new corvettes and frigates, our navy will not be bigger as present like Saudi and Iran combined, but also Syria and Egypt added to that list.

Within 10 years 7 military sattelites, of which are 2 SAR equivalent to new German recoinsailece satellites:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAR-Lupe

Also new war helicopters, MBT, infantry wagons, howitzers, rockets, artillery missiles etc. all in mass-production.

Could it be that Turk military chest thumping

Chest thumping or not, once USA leaves and it will be the case soon (relative) we will remember some people of what Turkey is.
Currently some Iraqi people stand on top of 500 Budweiser boxes, trying to tell Turkey something on same eye-level which we give a shit about knowing of what we are and what will be when for first time since collpase of Ottoman Empire, region will form itself.
And Turkey has the biggest pencil to draw.
Everything what now is, is temporarily to months/year nothing Turkey is binded to live with transforming interest region by ourself.
Is truly naive to think, USA will make untouchable facts in Iraq and Turkey has to live with.
Whilst USA is in, we mights live with it temporarily.

 

[Gunny]

Onedomino, you do not understand that haveing good relations is a precondition to have same policies on different issues. It does not mean, that in order to have good relations with Russia there must be same policies on different issues.

Policies are followed by a nation's own interest. Otherwise it is suicidal. If policies match with Russia's then even better.
But it is not a precondition, nor does Turkey modify its own interests to have good relations with anybody.

Your example with Israel is very uncarefully selected by you. Press reports about Israel bombing "Syrian nuclear weapon facilities" is bullshit, meaning press reports and not you.
Russia is biggest ally in the world outside Mid-East of Syria.
Maybe Iran is centered on in media interest, but it does not change, that Syria is very depedent on Russia and also fom Turkey. Russia did zero Syrian debts, from Assad's father in 2005. Think it was about 10 billion $.
And Russia is delivring Syria weapons, which Russia does not export to every country and is Syria's buddy in UNSC or world lobbying.

If Syrians want to invest in nuclear power plants, then Russia will supply and Syria has every right for it.
But Syrians do not have this motive. Syria can raise electricity generation by simply udateing its Hydro-Dams. Most Dams in Syria are Soviet garbage from decades ago. Soviet technology which is not fitted for this region, as Syria does need Dams, which have turbines low on ground.
Soviet dams have turbines meters above from ground level. So syria needs abundant water flow to be able to let turbines work.

Turkey is in preparation to build a friendship dam together with Syria on Orontes river at bilateral boarder. It was announced by both state leaders and preparations advance.
Syria will learn engineering of geography-efficient Hydro-dams from Turkey, so that new Syrian dams can work 24/7/12 for decades and is not bind to winter months so that Water levels are hig to reach Soviet turbines.
Soviet is different climate zone. Also Turkey transfers to Syria wate-agrar techniques as we are there togther with Israel very advanced.
And Syria is dependent on Turkish trucks which pass their territory.
Also we are assisting them in setting up their first every Stock exchange.

So, what does this mean? Does this mean, by haveing good relations to Syria we must as a consequence have bad relations with Israel?
Don't think so.
There are even press reports, that Turkey gave Israel intelligence about bombed "things" in Syria.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1189411398606&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

Allthough this press report is also shit, as good inteligence is when noone knows what you are doing, and i do not think anyone knows what Turkish military and Turkish Intelligence is doing.
Turkish-Israel relations are very well.
In August, Israelis were again in Konya for Airforce training on "Anatolian Eeagle" training facilities:

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2349

This should not become a Israel-Turkey thread, so i end my Israel words by saying, that we have strong relations. By haveing these it does not mean don't haveing relations with Syria or Russia.
Turkey is not such a bitch country being on one side. We are the only country around being able to talk to everyone.
This is a plus of Turkey being after 1923 to 90s isolationistic to outside, and now opening to outside.
All those problems of Mid-East we do not have, we can act independently and so we do by our interest to maximize our Interest.
Turkey is everywhere welcomed, be it in Moscow, Damascus, Tel-Aviv, Ryad or Teheran.
No one can piss us, as we (exclude Moscow) widen economical and military gap.
Everyone has to listen. Also Iraq, which currently does not listen, as they think as long as USA occupies their country, there is nothing to be feared from Turkey.
This is a short-term philosophy, and Iraq will place itself in power-politics of this region once it goes her way by itself and not under occupation by USA.
And under this proposition Iraq is a 200 grams dachshund, Saudi-Arabia the greyhound, Iran the pitbull and Turkey the 70kg Kangal.
And USA is the gene-mutated 3 meter dog, currently set-up Iraq as its own pilotage area.

You also said, that Turkey will become Pakistan...
Turkey will never become Pakistan, if it would, west has a big problem what Iran is nothing against.
How can someone compare Turkey, where civilian-debate focusses on things like opening headscarves for female Students so they do not have to study abroad, with anything other in Muslim world.
We are not comparable to any state existing on this earth.
Turkish nation decides itseld, and when something is adopted, then the devotion to our own history of Gökturks, Seldjuks and Ottomans. Not to Pakistan, Saudi-Arabia or Iran.
They in mid- to longterm will, if they are wise, follow our direction.
Turkish debate is not fixed to some Imams or Ayatollahs in any other muslim country. We go our own way, and foreign politics is set-up by interests and not religious links.

Turkey will get new constitution. It will be send to Parliament in January and onwards to Referendum to people.
This constitution will be the most civil constitution in Turkish Reublic history, updated to Turkish step to EU.
There is a 3 months time-gate for institutions, academics interest groups and society to discuss constitution template and then it will enter Parliament process and there will be modified in multi-partisan commissions, to match political reality of Turkey as academics think "Alice-in-wonderand"-alike.
Secular character of Turkish republic will remain, there will be more civil rights (religious unbound to monotheistic confession and more ethnic rights) and maybe Turkey even switches to State-President system from Prime-Ministry system.
Guidance for new constitution is not Pakistan or Saudi-Arabia but standards in EU, so negotiation with EU will exponentially advance, as things in negotiation chapters will be adopet completely in constitution rather then advaceing one by one chapter.

To Greece:
Greece's airforce is major French Rafale customer. Also Greece has debt to GDP of sums like 120%. Greece's engine is in 6th gear by 4000 R/PM.
Turkey is currently in 2nd shift by 3000 R/PM steadily gaining on speed.
Greece in relation to its size is one of strongest military country on earth. If not stronger then Israel.
But Greece's problem is that it has no industry (service related) and therefore also no militay industry.
It purchases, despite the best it can only purchase small quantities.
Turkey is quantity, should not misguide you about quality.

Turkey currently is self-sufficient in military industry by 37%. SSM (State military procurement agency) aims 50% by 2010.
We invest major bucks in military industry and thereby cooperate with allies like Germany, South-Korea and Italy.

With USA we do not have any weapons development. Even with China we developed artillery-rockets with 250 KM, equivalent to Russian ISKANDER missiles.
We produce, produced or financeing indigenious programs for
- MBT
- Rockets
- Frigates
- Kovettes
- Subs
- Howitzers
- Satellites (7 military satellites in 10 years)
- War Helicopters

and all we will build in quantities. Also the components be it MMW radar, Sonar, firecontrol system, mission computer, weapons and all related stuff we prooduce, produced ot are financeing to produce.
Times of being dependent to goodwill of foreign nations by things like software codes, mounting of new weapons to plattforms is over.

We only do not have programs for Airfighters. It is to much costly, where we can finance other critical platforms with that money, and our airforce is anyway happy with Lockheed Martin.
Turkey will get 116 F-35 in first batch.
16 will be VTOL for our Landing plattform docks.
2nd batch will replace our F-4 Terminator 2000 and F-5, which will require another 120-200 F-35.
Paralell to that we will have about 255 F-16 in latest Block 50/52 standard (52/50 is only difference of engine).
Lockheed Martin is our lobbyist against people's thinking like yours, onedomino.
This is big bucks not comparable with tiny Greece, whose engine is exploding with philosophy of keeping up with Turkey.
And by that USA is in no need of financeing Turkey like it does with it Israel, Egypt and Saudi-Arabia.
We are the strongest country around and arming-up of our neighbours is related to interrelation of them.
A country with potential with takeing on Turkey is not around, only Russia in North.

We are a militaristic nation with great ambitions to regain power of past, and our army budget will always be above NATO standard whilst economy is growing.
We are biggest threat to anyone in region trying to piss us, comeing to punish them.
With our new corvettes and frigates, our navy will not be bigger as present like Saudi and Iran combined, but also Syria and Egypt added to that list.

Within 10 years 7 military sattelites, of which are 2 SAR equivalent to new German recoinsailece satellites:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAR-Lupe

Also new war helicopters, MBT, infantry wagons, howitzers, rockets, artillery missiles etc. all in mass-production.


Chest thumping or not, once USA leaves and it will be the case soon (relative) we will remember some people of what Turkey is.
Currently some Iraqi people stand on top of 500 Budweiser boxes, trying to tell Turkey something on same eye-level which we give a shit about knowing of what we are and what will be when for first time since collpase of Ottoman Empire, region will form itself.
And Turkey has the biggest pencil to draw.
Everything what now is, is temporarily to months/year nothing Turkey is binded to live with transforming interest region by ourself.
Is truly naive to think, USA will make untouchable facts in Iraq and Turkey has to live with.
Whilst USA is in, we mights live with it temporarily.

Y'all just ain't too bright, are you? Keep on talking your smack ... you'll go down just as you did before. I have yet to see even one American on this board possess even one-tenth the arrogance you display.

 

[ekrem]

you'll go down

No one is going down. The opposite is the case, things are going up.
These are only our Military Satellites:

- In 2011 our Göktürk image spying satellites go online.
- 2012 our Satellites with Synthetic Aperture Radars go online, makeing us independent from weather conditions and day/night cycle.
- 2015 new Generation of Military communication satellites
- 2016 Block 2 Versions of Göktürk Satellites (Image spying)
- 2017 Block 2 of our Synthetic Aperture Radars

These are our future military satellites.

Long Rage rockets we do not develop under Military, but under civilian space-programm. This duty has TÜBITAK (State Research Council) developing rocket to carry satellites into space. First Rocket with capacity of 130 KG's will be sent into space in 2014 carrying a civilian satellite to Moon, construction of space center like Baikonur will begin in 2010 and will cost 1,5 billion $ which comes from budget of Turkish airforce.
Currently process decides where to build Space and Rocket launching center. There are 3 cities proposed: Ankara, Izmir, Antalya.

Turkey has no need to sent military rockets thousands of kilometers around the globe, but if such a need arises civilian space Rockets can be modified to military environment.

 

[Gunny]

No one is going down. The opposite is the case, things are going up.
These are only our Military Satellites:

- In 2011 our Göktürk image spying satellites go online.
- 2012 our Satellites with Synthetic Aperture Radars go online, makeing us independent from weather conditions and day/night cycle.
- 2015 new Generation of Military communication satellites
- 2016 Block 2 Versions of Göktürk Satellites (Image spying)
- 2017 Block 2 of our Synthetic Aperture Radars

These are our future military satellites.

Long Rage rockets we do not develop under Military, but under civilian space-programm. This duty has TÜBITAK (State Research Council) developing rocket to carry satellites into space. First Rocket with capacity of 130 KG's will be sent into space in 2014 carrying a civilian satellite to Moon, construction of space center like Baikonur will begin in 2010 and will cost 1,5 billion $ which comes from budget of Turkish airforce.
Currently process decides where to build Space and Rocket launching center. There are 3 cities proposed: Ankara, Izmir, Antalya.

Turkey has no need to sent military rockets thousands of kilometers around the globe, but if such a need arises civilian space Rockets can be modified to military environment.

Dude, whoever brainwashed you has done a magnificent job.

 

[onedomino]

Dude, whoever brainwashed you has done a magnificent job.

They'll be able to use their satellites to get a better view from the cheap seats of history.

 

[Shogun]

rise and fall, turn the whell
cause all life is, it's really just a circle.


Even Rome fell, boys. Even Rome.

 

[Ruby]

rise and fall, turn the whell
cause all life is, it's really just a circle.


Even Rome fell, boys. Even Rome.

Yea and I think that american mis-managed its power and was sloppy and is falling earlier than it needed to. I really believe we could have had a MUCH LONGER run.

 

[ekrem]

Yea and I think that american mis-managed its power and was sloppy and is falling earlier than it needed to. I really believe we could have had a MUCH LONGER run.

USA is still the only Superpower. And it will actually stay some time to be so.
The world becoming again multipolar is not primarily a fault of US mismanagement, but an effect which is not in USA's reach. You can't stop China's growth. You only can slow it.

It is better to say, that World being not multipolar for some decades is the mismanagement of other countries which had the potential to be a Superpower in this time.
This distortion now becomes corrected. And it is not primarily related to USA mismanagement.

I think that times, where Superpower of present or Superpowers of future can make anything they want far far away from georgraphy of their countries is over.
USA with Iraq and maybe Iran will be the last example for this. Ensuring to control ressources to be able in case of conflict with potential Superpowers to controll their energy supplies.

But this region will in near future decide itself where to go.
And USA is the last foreign actor which currently directs or tries to direct faith of the biggest part of the region.
No other foreign country will be able to fill USA position in this region when USA leaves or "redeploys".
And this will happen, it's a matter of time.

Countries of this region prepare for this time after active USA involvement.
Time is ticking.

 

[Shogun]

Yea and I think that american mis-managed its power and was sloppy and is falling earlier than it needed to. I really believe we could have had a MUCH LONGER run.

Don't get me wrong... I wouldn't give up on that horse just yet. I still believe that America is, hands down, the greatest nation to ever grace the face of the Earth. Granted, I have no direct knowledge of past cultures that may have been greater but I wouldn't want to come from any other place. I have no doubt that America will last longer than now. or, MUCH LONGER, to use your phrase.

Rome did fall.. but I think it will be a long while before America follows suit.

 

[ekrem]

They'll be able to use their satellites to get a better view from the cheap seats of history.

Do i have to explain you strategic implications of military satellites, which are not bound to weather conditions and day/night cycle?
This is part of keeping supremacy in the region. To know what neighbours etc. are doing and if need to utilitize these satellites in militarization of foreign policy. We launch these satellites not to watch anything what is not in our interest zone.
Continent America is neither our influence zone nor our interest zone. We do only have commerce interest in that continent.
Turkish interest zone is precisely defined. Simply put, everywhere where Turks are and were in history.
Satellite fleet will be directed to here.

And with SAR satellites we will precisely will be able to watch things in our interest zone unbound to weather conditions and day/night cycle.
Germany launched its first SAR satellites for military use in 2006. Turkey will in 2011 launch first SAR satellite for military use.

In near future (financing stands and projects are ongoing with concrete timetable) we will dramatically increase our satellites capability which is important for strategic and military implications.

 

[ekrem]

Dude, whoever brainwashed you has done a magnificent job.

Every nation has up and downs.
Turkey for a century was in a sleep and isolationistic and passive.
Now we steadily awake and leave passive mode.
Turkey's path passes again through a gate, where power expansion is possible and will be the case.
We will establish ourselves as absolute big boss in a very big area stretching from Southeastern-Europe, North-Africa, Arabian-Peninsula, Caucasus to Afghanistan's Hindukush.

The future is ours. I say this in knowledge of Turkey already being the leader nation in terms of
- industry capabilities
- economy
- scientific output
- military power
in this region.
Turkey will not watch history from cheap seats, as onedomino indicated.

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=293204&selected=Analyses

The assumption we have consistently made is that, absent the United States, Iran would become the dominant regional power and would be in a position, in the long term, to dominate the Arabian Peninsula, shifting not only the regional balance of power but also potentially the global balance as well.

That analysis assumes that Turkey will play the role it has played since World War I -- an insular, defensive power that is cautious about making alliances and then cautious within alliances. In that role, Turkey is capable of limited assertiveness, as against the Greeks in Cyprus, but is not inclined to become too deeply entangled in the chaos of the Middle Eastern equation -- and when it does become involved, it is in the context of its alliance with the United States.

That is not Turkey's traditional role. Until the fall of the Ottomans at the end of World War I, and for centuries before then, Turkey was both the dominant Muslim power and a major power in North Africa, Southeastern Europe and the Middle East. Turkey was the hub of a multinational empire that as far back as the 15th century dominated the Mediterranean and Black seas. It was the economic pivot of three continents, facilitating and controlling the trading system of much of the Eastern Hemisphere.

Turkey's contraction over the past 90 years or so is not the normal pattern in the region, and had to do with the internal crisis in Turkey since the fall of the Ottomans, the emergence of French and British power in the Middle East, followed by American power and the Cold War, which locked Turkey into place. During the Cold War, Turkey was trapped between the Americans and Soviets, and expansion of its power was unthinkable. Since then, Turkey has been slowly emerging as a key power.

One of the main drivers in this has been the significant growth of the Turkish economy. In 2006, Turkey had the 18th highest gross domestic product (GDP) in the world, and it has been growing at between 5 percent and 8 percent a year for more than five years. It ranks just behind Belgium and ahead of Sweden in GDP. It has the largest economy of any Muslim country -- including Saudi Arabia. And it has done this in spite of, or perhaps because of, not having been admitted to the European Union. While per capita GDP lags, it is total GDP that measures weight in the international system. China, for example, is 109th in per capita GDP. Its international power rests on it being fourth in total GDP.

Turkey is not China, but in becoming the largest Muslim economy, as well as the largest economy in the eastern Mediterranean, Southeastern Europe, the Middle East, the Caucasus and east to the Hindu Kush, Turkey is moving to regain its traditional position of primacy in the region. Its growth is still fragile and can be disrupted, but there is no question that it has become the leading regional economy, as well as one of the most dynamic. Additionally, Turkey's geographic position greatly enables it to become Europe's primary transit hub for energy supplies, especially at a time when Europe is trying to reduce its dependence on Russia.

This obviously has increased its regional influence. In the Balkans, for example, where Turkey historically has been a dominant power, the Turks have again emerged as a major influence over the region's two Muslim states -- and have managed to carve out for themselves a prominent position as regards other countries in the region as well. The country's economic dynamism has helped reorient some of the region away from Europe, toward Turkey. Similarly, Turkish economic influence can be felt elsewhere in the region, particularly as a supplement to its strategic relationship with Israel.

Turkey's problem is that in every direction it faces, its economic expansion is blocked by politico-military friction. So, for example, its influence in the Balkans is blocked by its long-standing friction with Greece. In the Caucasus, its friction with Armenia limits its ability to influence events. Tensions with Syria and Iraq block Syrian influence to the south. To the east, a wary Iran that is ideologically opposed to Turkey blocks Ankara's influence.

As Turkey grows, an interesting imbalance has to develop. The ability of Greece, Armenia, Syria, Iraq and Iran to remain hostile to Turkey decreases as the Turkish economy grows. Ideology and history are very real things, but so is the economic power of a dynamic economy. As important, Turkey's willingness to accept its highly constrained role indefinitely, while its economic -- and therefore political -- influence grows, is limited. Turkey's economic power, coupled with its substantial regional military power, will over time change the balance of power in each of the regions Turkey faces.

Not only does Turkey interface with an extraordinary number of regions, but its economy also is the major one in each of those regions, while Turkish military power usually is pre-eminent as well. When Turkey develops economically, it develops militarily. It then becomes the leading power -- in many regions. That is what it means to be a pivotal power.

In 2003, the United States was cautious with Turkey, though in the final analysis it was indifferent. It no longer can be indifferent. The United States is now in the process of planning the post-Iraq war era, and even if it does retain permanent bases in Iraq -- dubious for a number of reasons -- it will have to have a regional power to counterbalance Iran. Iran has always been aware of and cautious with Turkey, but never as much as now -- while Turkey is growing economically and doing the heavy lifting on the Kurds. Iran does not want to antagonize the Turks.

The United States and Iran have been talking -- just recently engaging in seven hours of formal discussions. But Iran, betting that the United States will withdraw from Iraq, is not taking the talks as seriously as it might. The United States has few levers to use against Iran. It is therefore not surprising that it has reached out to the biggest lever.

In the short run, Turkey, if it works with the United States, represents a counterweight to Iran, not only in general, but also specifically in Iraq. From the American point of view, a Turkish invasion of northern Iraq would introduce a major force native to the region that certainly would give Iran pause in its behavior in Iraq. This would mean the destruction of Kurdish hopes for independence, though the United States has on several past occasions raised and then dashed Kurdish hopes. In this sense, Novak's article makes a great deal of sense. The PKK would provide a reasonable excuse for a Turkish intervention in Iraq, both in the region and in Turkey. Anything that blocks the Kurds will be acceptable to the Turkish public, and even to Iran.

It is the longer run that is becoming interesting, however. If the United States is not going to continue counterbalancing Iran in the region, then it is in Turkey's interest to do so. It also is increasingly within Turkey's reach. But it must be understood that, given geography, the growth of Turkish power will not be confined to one direction. A powerful and self-confident Turkey has a geographical position that inevitably reflects all the regions that pivot around it.

For the past 90 years, Turkey has not played its historic role. Now, however, economic and politico-military indicators point to Turkey's slow reclamation of that role. The rumors about Turkish action against the PKK have much broader significance. They point to a changing role for Turkey -- and that will mean massive regional changes over time.

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=293204&selected=Analyses

 

[Gunny]

Every nation has up and downs.
Turkey for a century was in a sleep and isolationistic and passive.
Now we steadily awake and leave passive mode.
Turkey's path passes again through a gate, where power expansion is possible and will be the case.
We will establish ourselves as absolute big boss in a very big area stretching from Southeastern-Europe, North-Africa, Arabian-Peninsula, Caucasus to Afghanistan's Hindukush.

The future is ours. I say this in knowledge of Turkey already being the leader nation in terms of
- industry capabilities
- economy
- scientific output
- military power
in this region.
Turkey will not watch history from cheap seats, as onedomino indicated.

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=293204&selected=Analyses


http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=293204&selected=Analyses

No, you'll just get your asses kicked again.

 

[Annie]

Canavar, below is an example of what side your new Soviet pals are on. As Israel recently prepared to eliminate a Syrian nuclear weapons facility, the New Soviets warned Syria that Israel was about to attack. That is the reality of your "Brothers of the Black Sea." Turkey is lining up on the wrong side. The US State Department should argue for the cancellation of both the recent Turk F-16 order and Turk participation in the JSF F-35 program. Then Turkey can be content with being on the wrong end of combat result ratios such as the F-15's 104 to 0 record against Soviet built aircraft. In fact, to show how sanguine we are with recent Turk political activity, maybe the US should ship the Turk F-16 order to Greece. But such a move might undermine the Turk military which may soon be the only significant secular institution left in Turkey. How long before Turkey turns into Pakistan? Certainly the Turk civilian government is increasingly Islamist. To what degree has the military been infiltrated? Canavar, what happened to your prediction that Turkey would invade northern Iraq? Could it be that false bluster was timed for the 22 July national election? Or did the Turk military get instructions from the US Central Command to stand down? Probably both. Could it be that Turk military chest thumping is as detached from reality as the extreme anti American reporting that constantly appears in the Turkishish media?

Seems to be significant:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article2512380.ece

Israelis seized nuclear material in Syrian raid
Uzi Mahnaimi and Sarah Baxter

Israeli commandos seized nuclear material of North Korean origin during a daring raid on a secret military site in Syria before Israel bombed it this month, according to informed sources in Washington and Jerusalem.

The attack was launched with American approval on September 6 after Washington was shown evidence the material was nuclear related, the well-placed sources say.

They confirmed that samples taken from Syria for testing had been identified as North Korean. This raised fears that Syria might have joined North Korea and Iran in seeking to acquire nuclear weapons...

 

[trobinett]

canavar posts:

Turkey's path passes again through a gate, where power expansion is possible and will be the case.
We will establish ourselves as absolute big boss in a very big area stretching from Southeastern-Europe, North-Africa, Arabian-Peninsula, Caucasus to Afghanistan's Hindukush.

It's taken awhile, but you've finally showed your "true colors" canavar.

Just another in a long line of otherwise confused despots, in a world of "want a be's".

I'm sure you, and the rest of those that feel the same as you, will get exactly what is coming to you.

One can only pray......

 

[Doug]

There is no doubt that Turkey, along with China, India, Iran, Brazil and probably others, will play an increasingly-important role in the world, as their economies grow, finally set free from the shackles of state-socialism.

Of course their growing economies will be reflected in their growing military power.

And of course their populations will want to see their governments assert themselves on the world stage. This is only natural.

No American can criticize another people for wanting to have a powerful military. It feels good to see your fighter jets zooming overhead and your tanks rolling down the main avenue of your capital.

However, I do hope the leaders of the newly-rising powers will, in addition to absorbing European ideas and technology, play close attention to late 19th/early 20th Century European history.

Just a century ago, any European could be forgiven for believing that his continent was just about to enter a century of unparalled peace and prosperity. Economies were growing rapidly -- even backward Russia was booming. All social indicators -- lifespan, literacy, public health -- were positive and getting better. Social and political reforms were making steady progress.

Although there were some worrying signs, and a few Cassandras were about, in fact Europe looked like having a rosy future, evolving into prosperous, peaceful liberal democracies.

And then ....

Today, not one European in a hundred (and not one American in a thousand) can even begin to tell you what caused the enormous catastrophe of WWI.

Because there was no rational 'cause'. They were not fighting over vital interests.

Proud, powerful nations, with large armies and impressive navies, each with its fears and grievances and ambitions, slipped into devastating war, which bankrupted all of them, toppled empires, and set off the growth of communism and fascism.

So all you proud Turks and Indians and Chinese and others, as you cheer your tanks and fighter jets ... BEWARE!

And Americans: get out those old plans from fifty years ago for backyard fallout shelters.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

World War one started because Austria Hungary wanted Serbia. Germany's General Staff backed Austria Hungary and the Kiaser went sailing just before all hell broke loose.

Germany's generals misread their capabilities and the willingness of Russia to back Serbia and France to honor her treaty with Russia.

It had to do with territorial ambitions of a minor power and the Major power that backed it had delusions of Military prowess from the last 2 wars it fought with France. Wilhelm may have put a kabosh on the whole deal or he may not have, but he picked a very bad time to go sailing and leaving his generals in charge.

 

[Doug]

Winston Churchill, who was not fond of Germans in general, has a very interesting and sympathetic essay about the Kaiser in his excellent book, [ame=http://www.amazon.com/Great-Contemporaries-Churchill-Winston-Early/dp/0393029417/ref=sr_1_1/103-9655811-7155832?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1190976921&sr=8-1]Great Contemporaries[/ame].

In fact, that particular essay should be required reading for every leader of a strong military power.