The most accurate poll has Romney up by 5

[Vast LWC]

So, I ask you, how is it that the AP, Reuters and Gallup has Obama at an average +4.7 approval rating and Rasmussen has him at -11 approval rating in the same time period?

Obviously the difference is way beyond the boundaries of the margin of error.

It's close to a 16% difference.

 

[Vast LWC]

All the polls predicted Rudy vs Hillary.

True, but that was before everyone discovered that the only platform Rudy had was an endless repetition of the numbers 9 and 11.

 

[JRK]

why is it BHO has had Approval ratings in the mid 40s
Right direction of the country in the low 30s
And He wins in a land slide?

The Primaries in Wisconsin spoke volumes to me
The media has made so much about the re-call and Scott gets more votes than both combined
NC in a land slide shored up its conservative valuess

If the inside polling at the WH was not a concern, BHO keeps his mouth shut about Gay marriage

Obama is just about flush in approval/disapproval at the moment.

And, as you can see, Rasmussen is the outlier that's bringing his average approval rating down too:

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

RCP Average ......... -0.3

Gallup ......... +4
Rasmussen Reports ......... -11
Associated Press/GfK ......... +7
Reuters/Ipsos ......... +3
Politico/GWU .........Tie
Democracy Corps ......... -5

The only one that even comes close to Rasmussen (Democracy Corps) is a full 6 points away and was done almost 2 weeks ago.

Latest AP Poll Sample Skews to Democrats by 17 Points - By Jim Geraghty - The Campaign Spot - National Review Online
AP is a lie
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Direction of Country
right direction is at the low 30s

 

[Joshuatree]

During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

Rasmussen is the most accurate poll.

 

[JRK]

Gallup and USA Today have identified 12 swing states that will be vitally important in this year's election, and Obama's job approval rating within those states ranges from 39% in New Hampshire to 48% in Michigan.
OOPS

 

[JRK]

During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

Rasmussen is the most accurate poll.

Why that is questioned is laughable
Gallup and USA Today have identified 12 swing states that will be vitally important in this year's election, and Obama's job approval rating within those states ranges from 39% in New Hampshire to 48% in Michigan.
That puts a whole different spin on the election

 

[Vast LWC]

Latest AP Poll Sample Skews to Democrats by 17 Points - By Jim Geraghty - The Campaign Spot - National Review Online
AP is a lie
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Direction of Country
right direction is at the low 30s

Ahh, I see.

SO every other polling agency is simply lying, and Rasmussen is the great oracle who brings us the truth at last?



OK, let's say the opinion article, from the National Review no less, is correct (which it clearly is not, as they use the same "likely voter" classifications as Rasmussen does)...

How do you explain the +4 rating from Gallup, which the author of your article sites as a credible agency?

Are they lying too?

 

[JRK]

Latest AP Poll Sample Skews to Democrats by 17 Points - By Jim Geraghty - The Campaign Spot - National Review Online
AP is a lie
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Direction of Country
right direction is at the low 30s

Ahh, I see.

SO every other polling agency is simply lying, and Rasmussen is the great oracle who brings us the truth at last?



OK, let's say the opinion article, from the National Review no less, is correct (which it clearly is not, as they use the same "likely voter" classifications as Rasmussen does)...

How do you explain the +4 rating from Gallup, which the author of your article sites as a credible agency?

Are they lying too?

Why is it to be a liberal you have to call people names?
Is that a Must to be in the club?

BTW
Gallup and USA Today have identified 12 swing states that will be vitally important in this year's election, and Obama's job approval rating within those states ranges from 39% in New Hampshire to 48% in Michigan.
http://content.usatoday.com/communi...ama-over-50-in-only-ten-states/1#.T62w2-uuflM
Gallup is fine with me
Usually center left
Rasmussen is Usually center right

AP is off the cliff like you left

You got issue with national review? there article is based on data, not an opinion

For contrast, the AP’s immediate preceding poll was 45 percent Democrat, 33 percent Republican; the likely-voter pool in October 2010 was 43 percent Democrat, 48 percent Republican. The poll’s total sample in October 2010 split 43 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican.

With a poll sample that has a 17-percentage-point margin in favor of the Democrats, is anyone surprised that these results look like a David Axelrod dream?

(Interestingly, George W. Bush is at 50 percent approval, 49 percent disapproval, even in this sample wildly weighted in favor of the Democrats.)

UPDATE: Notice that in Gallup’s polling, party ID remains pretty stable. In roughly 40 polls since mid-2009, Democrats and Republicans have both ranged in the 40s with leaners. During that time, the split has never been larger than 7 percentage points. Their most recent split, from late April, is 31 percent Republican, 36 percent Independent, and 32 percent Democrat; with leaners, it’s a 46-46 split. Of course, the OBL kill could have prompted more Americans to self-identify as Democrats. Some pollsters are okay with dramatic shifts in their party ID from poll to poll; they see respondents’ party self-identification as flexible, even fickle, changing from week to week and month to month.

The OBL bump still has BHO down blow 50%

 

[Vast LWC]

During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

Rasmussen is the most accurate poll.

You can keep saying that all you'd like. It doesn't make it any more true.

The results of the 2008 election, after all the votes were counted, had Obama winning by a margin of 7.3%.

That is an undisputed fact.

Rasmussen had the spread predicted at 6%.

That is also a fact.

5 other polling agencies had results of either 7 or 8%.

Another fact.

Now, last I looked, 7 or 8 percent are both closer to 7.3% than 6%.

Which of these facts do you dispute?

 

[Vast LWC]

Ahh, I see.

SO every other polling agency is simply lying, and Rasmussen is the great oracle who brings us the truth at last?



OK, let's say the opinion article, from the National Review no less, is correct (which it clearly is not, as they use the same "likely voter" classifications as Rasmussen does)...

How do you explain the +4 rating from Gallup, which the author of your article sites as a credible agency?

Are they lying too?

Why is it to be a liberal you have to call people names?
Is that a Must to be in the club?

I'm not sure what you are referring to. What name did I call you exactly?

I'm just not seeing it.

BTW
Gallup and USA Today have identified 12 swing states that will be vitally important in this year's election, and Obama's job approval rating within those states ranges from 39% in New Hampshire to 48% in Michigan.
Obama's approval rating above 50% in only 10 states
Gallup is fine with me
Usually center left
Rasmussen is Usually center right

AP is off the cliff like you left

You got issue with national review? there article is based on data, not an opinion

For contrast, the AP’s immediate preceding poll was 45 percent Democrat, 33 percent Republican; the likely-voter pool in October 2010 was 43 percent Democrat, 48 percent Republican. The poll’s total sample in October 2010 split 43 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican.

With a poll sample that has a 17-percentage-point margin in favor of the Democrats, is anyone surprised that these results look like a David Axelrod dream?

(Interestingly, George W. Bush is at 50 percent approval, 49 percent disapproval, even in this sample wildly weighted in favor of the Democrats.)

UPDATE: Notice that in Gallup’s polling, party ID remains pretty stable. In roughly 40 polls since mid-2009, Democrats and Republicans have both ranged in the 40s with leaners. During that time, the split has never been larger than 7 percentage points. Their most recent split, from late April, is 31 percent Republican, 36 percent Independent, and 32 percent Democrat; with leaners, it’s a 46-46 split. Of course, the OBL kill could have prompted more Americans to self-identify as Democrats. Some pollsters are okay with dramatic shifts in their party ID from poll to poll; they see respondents’ party self-identification as flexible, even fickle, changing from week to week and month to month.

The OBL bump still has BHO down blow 50%

And what you are stating here is that every single polling agency except for Rasmussen apparently has some "left-wing bias", that has strangely never been evident to anyone but right-wingers like opinion writers in the National Review.

And the emoticon referred to the inherent craziness of this idea, not to you specifically, if that is what you were referring to.

 

[JRK]

During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

Rasmussen is the most accurate poll.

You can keep saying that all you'd like. It doesn't make it any more true.

The results of the 2008 election, after all the votes were counted, had Obama winning by a margin of 7.3%.

That is an undisputed fact.

Rasmussen had the spread predicted at 6%.

That is also a fact.

5 other polling agencies had results of either 7 or 8%.

Another fact.

Now, last I looked, 7 or 8 percent are both closer to 7.3% than 6%.

Which of these facts do you dispute?

Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion
Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy,
This is the method as used to asses poll accuracy
you got an issue with that, then move on bud
I analyze poll estimates from
these 23 polling organizations. Four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain
support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength.
Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls—Rasmussen and Pew—were
perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (**).


The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

you keep talking about everything but the method,locale and date this person used
Wonder why

 

[Vast LWC]

Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion
Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy,
This is the method as used to asses poll accuracy
you got an issue with that, then move on bud
I analyze poll estimates from
these 23 polling organizations. Four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain
support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength.
Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls—Rasmussen and Pew—were
perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (**).


The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

you keep talking about everything but the method,locale and date this person used
Wonder why

Because that person wrote that BEFORE THE RESULTS WERE IN.

Let me make this simple:

Let's say you bet on a Football game, and bet that the team you bet on will win by 7 points or less.

It's the fourth quarter, with a minute left in the game, and you team is 7 points ahead, and they have the ball.

Let's say you stop watching the game, secure in the knowledge that your team won.

Now, let's say in that last minute your team scored a touchdown, and won by 14 points.

Do you think your bookie is going to pay you, even though your team won by more than the 7 point spread you bet on?

Because I'm thinking that if I was your bookie, I'd laugh in your face.

 

[RightWingFerret]

and today we find out that Romney has his 50% and Bozo is down to 43,,,this is what happens when A President comes out of the closet.

 

[JRK]

Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion
Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy,
This is the method as used to asses poll accuracy
you got an issue with that, then move on bud
I analyze poll estimates from
these 23 polling organizations. Four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain
support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength.
Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls—Rasmussen and Pew—were
perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (**).


The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

you keep talking about everything but the method,locale and date this person used
Wonder why

Because that person wrote that BEFORE THE RESULTS WERE IN.

Let me make this simple:

Let's say you bet on a Football game, and bet that the team you bet on will win by 7 points or less.

It's the fourth quarter, with a minute left in the game, and you team is 7 points ahead, and they have the ball.

Let's say you stop watching the game, secure in the knowledge that your team won.

Now, let's say in that last minute your team scored a touchdown, and won by 14 points.

Do you think your bookie is going to pay you, even though your team won by more than the 7 point spread you bet on?

Because I'm thinking that if I was your bookie, I'd laugh in your face.

Dude you libs just do not get it
You keep telling me this event took place on information that your not using
You used info that is not based on the information he quoted
You used real clear, not pollster

 

[Lakhota]

Real Clear Politics has Obama up by +1.3

Polls are meaningless at this point.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

 

[RightWingFerret]

Libs will deny all the polls showing Romney ahead right thru October,,,,gay marriage is more important.

 

[JRK]

Real Clear Politics has Obama up by +1.3

Polls are meaningless at this point.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

I agree to some degree
I also think we need to watch the media, the truth and the spin

I keep bringing up the direction of the country poll as well as the over-all approval poll
which has been in the low 40s allot more than the hi 40s
It gives us something to discuss

 

[candycorn]

Ahh, I see.

SO every other polling agency is simply lying, and Rasmussen is the great oracle who brings us the truth at last?



OK, let's say the opinion article, from the National Review no less, is correct (which it clearly is not, as they use the same "likely voter" classifications as Rasmussen does)...

How do you explain the +4 rating from Gallup, which the author of your article sites as a credible agency?

Are they lying too?

Why is it to be a liberal you have to call people names?
Is that a Must to be in the club?

I'm not sure what you are referring to. What name did I call you exactly?

I'm just not seeing it.

BTW
Gallup and USA Today have identified 12 swing states that will be vitally important in this year's election, and Obama's job approval rating within those states ranges from 39% in New Hampshire to 48% in Michigan.
Obama's approval rating above 50% in only 10 states
Gallup is fine with me
Usually center left
Rasmussen is Usually center right

AP is off the cliff like you left

You got issue with national review? there article is based on data, not an opinion

For contrast, the AP’s immediate preceding poll was 45 percent Democrat, 33 percent Republican; the likely-voter pool in October 2010 was 43 percent Democrat, 48 percent Republican. The poll’s total sample in October 2010 split 43 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican.

With a poll sample that has a 17-percentage-point margin in favor of the Democrats, is anyone surprised that these results look like a David Axelrod dream?

(Interestingly, George W. Bush is at 50 percent approval, 49 percent disapproval, even in this sample wildly weighted in favor of the Democrats.)

UPDATE: Notice that in Gallup’s polling, party ID remains pretty stable. In roughly 40 polls since mid-2009, Democrats and Republicans have both ranged in the 40s with leaners. During that time, the split has never been larger than 7 percentage points. Their most recent split, from late April, is 31 percent Republican, 36 percent Independent, and 32 percent Democrat; with leaners, it’s a 46-46 split. Of course, the OBL kill could have prompted more Americans to self-identify as Democrats. Some pollsters are okay with dramatic shifts in their party ID from poll to poll; they see respondents’ party self-identification as flexible, even fickle, changing from week to week and month to month.

The OBL bump still has BHO down blow 50%

And what you are stating here is that every single polling agency except for Rasmussen apparently has some "left-wing bias", that has strangely never been evident to anyone but right-wingers like opinion writers in the National Review.

And the emoticon referred to the inherent craziness of this idea, not to you specifically, if that is what you were referring to.

In his case, we can call it applicable. Ask him if WMDs were found in Iraq. Bush doesn't think so; he differs.

 

[Neotrotsky]

 

[RightWingFerret]

Obama's pet gerbils are so insulted from the polls, they have moved out. (dont ask where they moved out from, but I heard the same scenario happened to Richard Gere)