The first elections of 2014 have already happened...

[Statistikhengst]

...and some are very interesting and meaningful in the current system of strategema:

In Virginia's Senate District 06, in what is sure to cause a recount:

Virginia Board of Elections - Election Night Results - January 7th, 2014

and on a map of the Old Dominion:

Democrat Lynwood Lewis is leading by all of 10 votes and +0.04%.

What is critical about this is that the Virginia Senate before this election, was R 20 - D 18.

If Lywood is declared the winner and and Democrats hold Northern Virginia's SD-33 on January 21, about two week from now, then the Virginia Senate will be tied at 19-19, which means that the newly elected Lt. Governor of Virginia, Ralph Northam, will cast the tie-breaking vote on any legislation, which means that the Virginia Senate goes blue.

If however, Wayne Coleman retains this SD for the GOP and the GOP picks-up SD-33, then it would be R21 - D 17.

Once again, Virginia is showing itself to be a microcosm of the USA. Bitterly, partisanly divided.

I will remind again that Virginia absolutely perfectly paralleled Obama's 2012 win:

USA: Obama +3.86%
Virgnia: Obama +3.87%

That is the most perfect state - to - national results match that we have EVER seen in our history.

So, eyes stay on Virginia the next two weeks to see how this all unfolds.

There was also a race in Virginia HD-11, the Democrat won in a blowout, 70-30, but this was to be expected for that HD.

http://www.wdbj7.com/news/election/results/

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


There was a race in Iowa's HD-25:

Stan Gustafson Wins Iowa House District 25 Special Election | Caffeinated Thoughts

Stan Gustavson, Republican, won in a blowout, 69-30. This was also expected, due to the history of this HD.

And in Massachusett's HD-9 (Norfolk):

-no info yet - will fill in later


And Republican party primaries in GA HD-02 and HD-12:

GA - Election Results

These were three or four man races, with a minority win and a small plurality. The Georgia House is strongly Republican.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, the elections of 2014 are already underway!!!



[MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION] [MENTION=31057]JoeB131[/MENTION] - since you guys are following the elections stuff really well, I thought a friendly shout out would be good...

Also, [MENTION=36528]cereal_killer[/MENTION] and [MENTION=20285]Intense[/MENTION] - who also post some really good, thoughtful commentary, might appreciate this thread.

I will be reporting on every race that I can throughout the year...

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The Democrat should have ran away with that election yesterday.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The Democrat should have ran away with that election yesterday.

That is statistically incorrect. That state SD is actually very competitive and has been for a good while.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The Democrat should have ran away with that election yesterday.

That is statistically incorrect. That state SD is actually very competitive and has been for a good while.

Virginia Special Election Surprise: Republican Trails Democrat by 10 Votes in District Obama Won Big | The Weekly Standard

 

[Statistikhengst]

The Democrat should have ran away with that election yesterday.

That is statistically incorrect. That state SD is actually very competitive and has been for a good while.

Virginia Special Election Surprise: Republican Trails Democrat by 10 Votes in District Obama Won Big | The Weekly Standard

You are comparing that SD to presidential elections.

I am comparing it to former SD elections, they have generally been very competitive.

In fact, a Republican had this SD just 6 years ago:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Senate,_District_6#Election_history

 

[WelfareQueen]

Sorry Stat....you're Democrat cheerleading is getting in the way of the facts. You could not be more incorrect. Here is the actual breakdown of votes in Virginia's 6th district voting in 2012. Obama also won big in this area in 2008. Which is more relevant....the last two major elections...or a local race almost a decade ago?


Accomack: Obama 7655 Romney 8213

Matthews: Obama 1807 Romney 3488

Norfolk: Obama 62687 Romney 23147

Northampton: Obama 3741 Romney 2676

Virginia Beach: Obama 94299 Romney 99291

Obama won this area with over 55.4% of the votes with Romney getting only 44.6% Obama won by a 10.8% margin. The fact the Dem is only leading by 10 votes in this district is extremely bad news for the Democrats. In fact, I would characterize it as terrible. No doubt the Republicans are very happy to be within 10 votes in a district that Obama won by almost an 11% margin.


Total votes Obama 170,189

Total Votes Romney 136,815

 

[Statistikhengst]

Sorry Stat....you're Democrat cheerleading is getting in the way of the facts. You could not be more incorrect. Here is the actual breakdown of votes in Virginia's 6th district voting in 2012. Obama also won big in this area in 2008. Which is more relevant....the last two major elections...or a local race almost a decade ago?


Accomack: Obama 7655 Romney 8213

Matthews: Obama 1807 Romney 3488

Norfolk: Obama 62687 Romney 23147

Northampton: Obama 3741 Romney 2676

Virginia Beach: Obama 94299 Romney 99291

Obama won this area with over 55.4% of the votes with Romney getting only 44.6% Obama won by a 10.8% margin. The fact the Dem is only leading by 10 votes in this district is extremely bad news for the Democrats. In fact, I would characterize it as terrible. No doubt the Republicans are very happy to be within 10 votes in a district that Obama won by almost an 11% margin.


Total votes Obama 170,189

Total Votes Romney 136,815

And again I say to you, the comparison is false. The correct comparison is to previous SD elections in this district. And just 6 years ago, a Republican hold that SD seat.

Sure, you can compare it to Obama's win, but that is an apples to oranges comparison, because an entirely different clientele shows up for a off-primary than for a Presidential election.

Not playing the Democratic cheerleader, but rather, sticking to facts.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Sorry Stat....you're Democrat cheerleading is getting in the way of the facts. You could not be more incorrect. Here is the actual breakdown of votes in Virginia's 6th district voting in 2012. Obama also won big in this area in 2008. Which is more relevant....the last two major elections...or a local race almost a decade ago?


Accomack: Obama 7655 Romney 8213

Matthews: Obama 1807 Romney 3488

Norfolk: Obama 62687 Romney 23147

Northampton: Obama 3741 Romney 2676

Virginia Beach: Obama 94299 Romney 99291

Obama won this area with over 55.4% of the votes with Romney getting only 44.6% Obama won by a 10.8% margin. The fact the Dem is only leading by 10 votes in this district is extremely bad news for the Democrats. In fact, I would characterize it as terrible. No doubt the Republicans are very happy to be within 10 votes in a district that Obama won by almost an 11% margin.


Total votes Obama 170,189

Total Votes Romney 136,815

And again I say to you, the comparison is false. The correct comparison is to previous SD elections in this district. And just 6 years ago, a Republican hold that SD seat.

Sure, you can compare it to Obama's win, but that is an apples to oranges comparison, because an entirely different clientele shows up for a off-primary than for a Presidential election.

Not playing the Democratic cheerleader, but rather, sticking to facts.

Partly facts....partly editorial opinion. You characterized this as good news for the Dems. This in a district that Obama won a little over a year ago by almost 11%.

For a Dem candidate to be up 10 votes in a district Obama won by over 35,000 votes a little over a year ago is not good news for Dems no matter how you try to spin it.

Saying a Republican won this district in the last decade does not strengthen your case. It would be like me saying Bush won Virginia twice last decade therefore if the Republican happens to overcome the 10 vote difference this means the Republicans are ascendent. That is faulty logic and pure speculation. What you can say is based on the last election (i.e. the most recent data) this is very bad news for the Dems.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Statz has the the right of this. Obama's victory should be factored in, but more importantly are the SD's voting histories over the last ten years. Very interesting. Let's see if it goes GOP, which would tell us more than if it went blue.

 

[RandomVariable]

Random variable?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Sorry Stat....you're Democrat cheerleading is getting in the way of the facts. You could not be more incorrect. Here is the actual breakdown of votes in Virginia's 6th district voting in 2012. Obama also won big in this area in 2008. Which is more relevant....the last two major elections...or a local race almost a decade ago?


Accomack: Obama 7655 Romney 8213

Matthews: Obama 1807 Romney 3488

Norfolk: Obama 62687 Romney 23147

Northampton: Obama 3741 Romney 2676

Virginia Beach: Obama 94299 Romney 99291

Obama won this area with over 55.4% of the votes with Romney getting only 44.6% Obama won by a 10.8% margin. The fact the Dem is only leading by 10 votes in this district is extremely bad news for the Democrats. In fact, I would characterize it as terrible. No doubt the Republicans are very happy to be within 10 votes in a district that Obama won by almost an 11% margin.


Total votes Obama 170,189

Total Votes Romney 136,815

And again I say to you, the comparison is false. The correct comparison is to previous SD elections in this district. And just 6 years ago, a Republican hold that SD seat.

Sure, you can compare it to Obama's win, but that is an apples to oranges comparison, because an entirely different clientele shows up for a off-primary than for a Presidential election.

Not playing the Democratic cheerleader, but rather, sticking to facts.

Partly facts....partly editorial opinion. You characterized this as good news for the Dems. This in a district that Obama won a little over a year ago by almost 11%.

For a Dem candidate to be up 10 votes in a district Obama won by over 35,000 votes a little over a year ago is not good news for Dems no matter how you try to spin it.

Saying a Republican won this district in the last decade does not strengthen your case. It would be like me saying Bush won Virginia twice last decade therefore if the Republican happens to overcome the 10 vote difference this means the Republicans are ascendent. That is faulty logic and pure speculation. What you can say is based on the last election (i.e. the most recent data) this is very bad news for the Dems.

Actually, no.

I stated quite factually that if the DEM wins this election and the DEM in two weeks holds SD-33, then the Virginia State Senate will flip. That is factually absolutely correct.

But I also stated very clearly that if he loses or the other DEM loses, then the State Senate remains in GOP hands. That is also factually also absolutely correct.

I will say it again: there is no 1:1 CORRESPONDENCE between the results of a presidential election in a CD and a CD election all on it's own. We all know that for off year stuff, including primaries for mid-terms, they are base elections, barely paid attention to except for those in the vicinity. Conversely, presidential elections are much more than base elections, they are coalition elections.

Not real sure why you are riding so hard on this, for any sane person reading the OP would see that I have been pretty damned neutral about it. And saying stuff like "well, the DEM should have run away with it" is just bullshit, for every election is also based on personalities. Based on your logic, Martha Coakley should have "run away" with the 2010 senatorial in MA, but she lost. Obama won there just two years before with +25. There is not even a 1:1 correspondence between Prez elections and Senatorial elections, either. Each one is different, and YOU YOURSELF have indiicated that Virginia voters are capable of voting split ticket. Remember? So, what's the big fucking deal?

Maybe you want to go read the OP again, this time, slowly.

 

[WelfareQueen]

I never said the Dem should have run away with it. But a Dem up by 10 votes in a district Obama won by over 35,000 votes and an 11% margin is not good news for Dems. There is no way to spin that result as a positive. That is my only point which you will not acknowledge. Wonder why?

The other information is not in dispute.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I never said the Dem should have run away with it. But a Dem up by 10 votes in a district Obama won by over 35,000 votes and an 11% margin is not good news for Dems. There is no way to spin that result as a positive. That is my only point which you will not acknowledge. Wonder why?

The other information is not in dispute.

Because I never said it was either good or bad news for the DEMS, not even once.
And once again, you are comparing the votes, this time, the raw votes, from an off-election to a presidential election. There is no way in the world to compare those things with any credibility.

Unlike you, I remained neutral. I stuck only with the facts.

Besides, a win is a win is a win is a win - if it ends up being a win.

Wait and see.

Tell me, is your shakeesha getting fatter, or what?

I kind of liked you better as that metro-gay boy-thing.

 

[WelfareQueen]

I never said the Dem should have run away with it. But a Dem up by 10 votes in a district Obama won by over 35,000 votes and an 11% margin is not good news for Dems. There is no way to spin that result as a positive. That is my only point which you will not acknowledge. Wonder why?

The other information is not in dispute.

Because I never said it was either good or bad news for the DEMS, not even once.
And once again, you are comparing the votes, this time, the raw votes, from an off-election to a presidential election. There is no way in the world to compare those things with any credibility.

Unlike you, I remained neutral. I stuck only with the facts.

Besides, a win is a win is a win is a win - if it ends up being a win.

Wait and see.

Tell me, is your shakeesha getting fatter, or what?

I kind of liked you better as that metro-gay boy-thing.

I liked you better as a gay bathhouse Christmas troll. It seemed to fit.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Haaaa!!!!

 

[Statistikhengst]

...and some are very interesting and meaningful in the current system of strategema:

In Virginia's Senate District 06, in what is sure to cause a recount:

Virginia Board of Elections - Election Night Results - January 7th, 2014

and on a map of the Old Dominion:

Democrat Lynwood Lewis is leading by all of 10 votes and +0.04%.

What is critical about this is that the Virginia Senate before this election, was R 20 - D 18.

If Lywood is declared the winner and and Democrats hold Northern Virginia's SD-33 on January 21, about two week from now, then the Virginia Senate will be tied at 19-19, which means that the newly elected Lt. Governor of Virginia, Ralph Northam, will cast the tie-breaking vote on any legislation, which means that the Virginia Senate goes blue.

If however, Wayne Coleman retains this SD for the GOP and the GOP picks-up SD-33, then it would be R21 - D 17.

Once again, Virginia is showing itself to be a microcosm of the USA. Bitterly, partisanly divided.

I will remind again that Virginia absolutely perfectly paralleled Obama's 2012 win:

USA: Obama +3.86%
Virgnia: Obama +3.87%

That is the most perfect state - to - national results match that we have EVER seen in our history.

So, eyes stay on Virginia the next two weeks to see how this all unfolds.

There was also a race in Virginia HD-11, the Democrat won in a blowout, 70-30, but this was to be expected for that HD.

http://www.wdbj7.com/news/election/results/

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


There was a race in Iowa's HD-25:

Stan Gustafson Wins Iowa House District 25 Special Election | Caffeinated Thoughts

Stan Gustavson, Republican, won in a blowout, 69-30. This was also expected, due to the history of this HD.

And in Massachusett's HD-9 (Norfolk):

-no info yet - will fill in later


And Republican party primaries in GA HD-02 and HD-12:

GA - Election Results

These were three or four man races, with a minority win and a small plurality. The Georgia House is strongly Republican.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, the elections of 2014 are already underway!!!



[MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION] [MENTION=31057]JoeB131[/MENTION] - since you guys are following the elections stuff really well, I thought a friendly shout out would be good...

Also, [MENTION=36528]cereal_killer[/MENTION] and [MENTION=20285]Intense[/MENTION] - who also post some really good, thoughtful commentary, might appreciate this thread.

I will be reporting on every race that I can throughout the year...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And it's a done deal. Democrat Lynn Lewis has won VA SD-06, which means the Virginia Senate is now officially tied, but since the Lt. Gov. is a Democrat and will cast the tie-breaking vote on legislation, the Senate is now in Democratic hands.

Complete CLEAN SWEEP in VA: Gov, Lt. Gov, State Senate. The GOP controlled State House was never competitive.

Democrat wins Virginia Senate recount, giving Gov. Terry McAuliffe?s agenda a crucial boost - The Washington Post

VIRGINIA BEACH — Democrats prepared to seize control of the Virginia Senate on Monday after winning a recount by just 11 votes in a razor-thin special election, giving Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s first-year agenda a crucial boost.

The win energizes a party that in recent years has had to depend on moderate GOP allies in the Senate to flex any legislative muscle in Richmond — even as Democrats have won every statewide election since 2012.

So, that election statistics project is now one for the history books.

[MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION] [MENTION=31057]JoeB131[/MENTION]