You REALLY think this will lead to a civil war?
Before the civil war happened one state was going to put up slavery to a vote so a whole bunch of people from both sides moved to that state to try to swing the vote to their side. The two split up into camps and ended up in near open warfare with each other (houses were burned, people were killed).
I can't think of any modern issue with that much hatred between the two sides.
Look at what is happening nationwide; there is a huge, huge movement right now of people from the Northeast and West coast into the South and SW, who do NOT have massive numbers of public employees, who are the primary drivers of city/state costs and hence higher taxes.
What will happen next?
Exactly what is happening in California, where now that the bankrupt state has exhausted its ability to squeeze its residents harder for an even greater share of their diminishing assets, and b/c of its credit rating can no longer borrow its way out, is trying to foist the responsibility to fund its ever growing expenditures on the country as a whole, via a federal bailout.
What will happen when you have 15 Californias, and so many wealth creators like myself, who have moved to better-run states now living in the south say: "no fucking way, I am not paying ever higher federal taxes to support these public workers"?
You will either have a civil war, or a potential breakup of the nation into sections as the NY Times suggested a few weeks back.