LONDON attack: Connecting other Dots
By Michael B. Kraft
The terrorist bombings Thursday in central London, coinciding with the G-8 summit in Scotland, underscore the fact that terrorism is still alive and bad, and there are still many dots to connect. While it is too early to say who carried out the attacks on London's transit system, the bombings were similar to the March 2004 attack in Madrid that killed 191 people. That attack was carried out primarily by North Africans (more precisely, Moroccans) living in Spain.
As our colleague terrorist expert Steve Emerson told MSNBC yesterday, British intelligence sources reportedly have said that they suspected Thursday's attack was carried out by "our North African boys" -- a reference to the many immigrants from Muslim countries there who have moved to the United Kingdom. The London attack is a reminder of how the world has become a global village for terrorists.
While British investigators work on unraveling the latest atrocity, U.S. policy-makers and lawmakers should also be connecting some dots. They are:
-- Reports two weeks ago of a possible terrorist threat against U.S. and British embassies in Nigeria, a major supplier of sweet crude to the United States, helped send oil prices to record highs.
-- Up to one-fourth of the suicide bombers in Iraq are from North Africa, according to senior U.S. military officials. Algeria was the source of about 20 percent and neighboring Morocco and Tunisia provided another 5 percent, said the officials, who briefed reporters in connection with a U.S. counterterrorism training exercise with nine nations from northern and western Africa last month.
-- U.S. and British agents in Kenya are tracking members of two al Qaeda- linked groups, who crossed over from Somalia, according to press reports from Nairobi. "Al Qaeda is assessing local groups for franchising opportunities. I'm quite concerned about that," Maj. Gen, Richard Zahner, chief intelligence officer for the U.S. European Command, told the New York Times.
Despite these red flags, in Washington:
-- The House last week cut $1.25 billion from the administration's $3 billion 2006 budget request for the Millennium Challenge Grant, the landmark program that provides stepped-up foreign assistance to countries that make economic and political reforms. It also cut by 9 percent the administration's $133.5 million request for the Antiterrorism Training Assistance Program, which helps improve civilian law enforcement in Africa and elsewhere.
-- The leaders of five African nations in the program complained to President Bush recently of slow progress in the provision of the Millennium Challenge grant funds. Only about $325 million of the proposed $5 billion program has been obligated to date.
Caroline Cox, a British specialist on Islam, told a Heritage Foundation forum last month that in some parts of Nigeria and elsewhere in Africa, health clinics sponsored by Islamic groups tell African clients that they must convert to Islam in order to get treatment. Farmers seeking small loans were also told they had to convert. These social services have proved to be an effective terrorist recruiting tool in the Middle East. Providing training exercises and other specific counterterrorism assistance to developing countries in Africa and elsewhere is a necessary and a good step and should be fully funded.
But these are short-term measures, often underfunded. The federal Office of Management and Budget and Congress apparently don't understand that when Bush says it is better to fight terrorists overseas than at home, the theory should also be applied to assisting other countries in strengthening their capabilities, not just by fighting the terrorists who have gravitated to Iraq.
North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa are extremely vulnerable to being used as venues for terrorist attacks because of weak governments, porous borders and widespread corruption among border guards and other low-level officials susceptible to being bribed. While North Africa is primarily Muslim, some regions of West and East Africa are also home to substantial numbers of Muslims, some of whom feel disaffected, providing potential recruiting grounds and cover for terrorist operatives such as those who conducted the 1998 attacks against the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.
To have any hope of strengthening governments, upholding the rule of law and curbing rampant corruption, the United States and other donor countries need to make a large, long-term commitment of foreign assistance. Improving the legal system and the skills of crime investigators also develops capabilities for dealing with terrorist threats. Improving the school and medical systems is a worthwhile goal in itself, and it also minimizes the radical groups' ability to win supporters by filling the existing vacuum.
In short, if we are going to be serious about fighting the terrorism threat, we must think long term. We need to provide serious, focused -- and sustained -- assistance to help vulnerable African countries strengthen their government structure, economies and education systems. As the attack in London and the surge in oil prices because of the Nigeria terrorist alerts have shown, it is in our own self-interest. We must connect the dots.
Michael B. Kraft is a Washington-based counterterrorism consultant and a former senior adviser in the State Department's Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism.
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