They're saying Trump might have a recession though.
The probability of a recession is approaching 50%, Deutsche markets survey finds
consumers and business leaders are increasingly concerned that a slowdown or recession is a growing risk.
Additionally, Fed officials raised their outlook for core inflation to 2.8%, well above the central bank’s 2% goal, though they still expect to achieve that level by 2027. So much for day one.
The combination of higher inflation and slower growth raise the
specter of stagflation, a phenomenon not experienced since the early 1980s. Few economists see that era replicated in the current environment, though the probability is rising of a policy challenge where the Fed might have to choose between boosting growth and tamping down prices.
Markets have been nervous in recent weeks about the prospects ahead. Bond expert Jeffrey Gundlach at DoubleLine Capital
told CNBC a few days ago that he sees the chances of a recession at 50%-60%.
“The recent equity market correction was punctuated by the ‘uncertainty shock’ of ever-evolving tariff policy, with investors concerned it could morph into a slowdown or even recession,” Morgan Stanley said in a note Monday. “What’s really at the heart of the conundrum, however, is that the U.S. might be at risk for a bout of stagflation, where growth slows and inflation remains sticky.”