Taiwan, China, and the US

[Annie]

Does China see a window of opportunity? Things seem to be getting more tense:

Essay
Excerpt:

And Taiwan is taking it seriously. It tended always to hold its own exercises at the same time as the mainland (for obvious reasons), but this year Taiwan is renewing certain kinds of exercises that hearken back to the bellicose early years.
TAIPEI : Two Mirage fighter jets successfully staged emergency landings on a busy Taiwan freeway, the first time in 26 years.

The exercise was staged as part of the annual "Han Guang" war games, to test the island's combat readiness against a possible invasion by China.

The two French-built Mirage fighter jets took off from Taiwan's northern airbase of Hsinchu and landed on an expressway in Tainan.

After refueling and loaded with missiles, they took to the skies again.

The exercise is part of Taiwan's biggest annual military drill, designed to test the combined operations of road clearance, logistics operations and air traffic control.
So the situation is tense.

Oh, yeah, the US Navy is sending seven aircraft carrier battle groups to the region to remind the mainland it doesn't have free reign to invade Taiwan, with whose navy the Americans will hold combined exercises.

Update: Nashville Files points out that China's "military chief Jiang Zemin vowed to recover Taiwan by 2020, marking the first time China has set a deadline for reunification."

 

[Annie]

Analysis of 'who would win' if confrotation occurs:

http://www.philip-sen.com/disorientated/archives/000102.html#more

The author explores several factors including naval and air power, here is the Conclusion Excerpt:

Conclusions:

My conclusions are simple. If the US decides to intervene and it does it fast enough, the PRC will probably not be able to take Taiwan. But no plan ever survives contact with the enemy: the only predictable thing about war is its unpredictability. There could be some unforeseen factor that would throw this all out of balance.

If the PRC were to pre-emptively attack Taiwan it might beat the USN in the race to the island but it would probably mean the end of the economic boom. Investors would lose their nerve and the UN could possibly impose sanctions.

If Taiwan declared independence, the PRC would have its provocation but the US would have its early warning.

If the US intervened, it would be no Iraq. Though it would most likely win, the numerical advantage of the Chinese is such that at least some US vessels and aircraft are going to get hit. US casualties would probably top a thousand. This may not be politically expedient.

Chinese casualties would be in the tens of thousands.

There's no point entering a war unless you know you can win. It then becomes a question of which will cause less face-loss to the CCP: standing by when Taiwan declares independence or losing to the US. If it does turn into a turkey-shoot then the CCP's grip on power is going to weaken considerably as the people lose patience and respect.

The buck basically stops with Taiwan.

I personally think that for Taiwan to spark conflict over the question of its independence would be an act of monumental stupidity. The economies of both Taiwan and the PRC would probably collapse, thousands could die and no-one would benefit. It would be better to maintain the status quo.

But national leaders do sometimes behave with monumental stupidity, as we've already seen in the recent past. Let's hope reason prevails.