Zone1 Some form of crisis is almost inevitable

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With the national debt now effectively equal to the size of the entire U.S. economy, the nonpartisan watchdog’s latest report, “What Would a Fiscal Crisis Look Like?” outlined a dangerous future ahead. “If the national debt continues to grow faster than the economy,” the report said, “the country could ultimately experience a financial crisis, an inflation crisis, an austerity crisis, a currency crisis, a default crisis, a gradual crisis, or some combination of crises. Any of these would cause massive disruption and substantially reduce living standards for Americans and people across the world.”

The report warned that unless policymakers enact a “thoughtful pro-growth deficit reduction package,” disaster likely lies ahead.”The United States is deeply indebted, and its finances are on an unsustainable long-term trajectory,” the report concluded. While it’s “impossible” to know when disaster will strike, “some form of crisis is almost inevitable” without a course correction, the CRFB said.


ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=e127cd82708c44b7954f67734428bc4c&cvpid=60fcecf58042419784abaf5e88b6e354&ei=7


Some people will blow this off as fearmongering. I understand that, but this country is experiencing yearly deficits approaching $2 trillion and possibly exceeding that in coming years. Some people think it's not a problem, as the US Gov't can just print or create more money. But as the report notes, that creates inflation and erodes savings and purchasing power. Most of us remember the last bout we had with inflation (2020-2022). I don't think we wanna go back to that.

IOW, it's hard to see the fiscal trajectory we're on as a society/economy continuing without some difficulties down the road that could be really bad. And almost nobody cares, which means our political parties don't care either. We've got entirely too much FWA; Elon Musk and his DOGE program was a decent start IMHO, but we need to be doing that all the time. And it's gotta be mostly on the spending side, raising taxes will have to happen cuz, well politics. The Left will want to raise taxes now and cut spending later. Yeah, I've heard that song before. This time we need to cut spending now and raise taxes later. Anybody wanna bet how far that idea will fly? Yeah, me neither.
 
With the national debt now effectively equal to the size of the entire U.S. economy, the nonpartisan watchdog’s latest report, “What Would a Fiscal Crisis Look Like?” outlined a dangerous future ahead. “If the national debt continues to grow faster than the economy,” the report said, “the country could ultimately experience a financial crisis, an inflation crisis, an austerity crisis, a currency crisis, a default crisis, a gradual crisis, or some combination of crises. Any of these would cause massive disruption and substantially reduce living standards for Americans and people across the world.”

The report warned that unless policymakers enact a “thoughtful pro-growth deficit reduction package,” disaster likely lies ahead.”The United States is deeply indebted, and its finances are on an unsustainable long-term trajectory,” the report concluded. While it’s “impossible” to know when disaster will strike, “some form of crisis is almost inevitable” without a course correction, the CRFB said.


ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=e127cd82708c44b7954f67734428bc4c&cvpid=60fcecf58042419784abaf5e88b6e354&ei=7


Some people will blow this off as fearmongering. I understand that, but this country is experiencing yearly deficits approaching $2 trillion and possibly exceeding that in coming years. Some people think it's not a problem, as the US Gov't can just print or create more money. But as the report notes, that creates inflation and erodes savings and purchasing power. Most of us remember the last bout we had with inflation (2020-2022). I don't think we wanna go back to that.

IOW, it's hard to see the fiscal trajectory we're on as a society/economy continuing without some difficulties down the road that could be really bad. And almost nobody cares, which means our political parties don't care either. We've got entirely too much FWA; Elon Musk and his DOGE program was a decent start IMHO, but we need to be doing that all the time. And it's gotta be mostly on the spending side, raising taxes will have to happen cuz, well politics. The Left will want to raise taxes now and cut spending later. Yeah, I've heard that song before. This time we need to cut spending now and raise taxes later. Anybody wanna bet how far that idea will fly? Yeah, me neither.
You're right, and the whole world knows it too. That's why gold is almost $5000 an ounce today. The dollar is worthless.
 
You're right, and the whole world knows it too. That's why gold is almost $5000 an ounce today. The dollar is worthless.

The whole world except for us, apparently. Other nations are talking about replacing the dollar as the world's currency, but what happen if things get so bad here with our debt and deficits problem that the switch actually happens? I dunno, nobody really does but I'm guessing it won't be a good thing.
 
We are there already and have been for some time .
Silver just broke $100 a oz --- up over 400% since this time 3 years ago, and this benchmarks the time of NO Return .
( Gold itching to break 5000 right now )

It's all downhill from now on unless you hold natural resources .

Beep Beep . All on board and hold on tight .
 
With the national debt now effectively equal to the size of the entire U.S. economy, the nonpartisan watchdog’s latest report, “What Would a Fiscal Crisis Look Like?” outlined a dangerous future ahead. “If the national debt continues to grow faster than the economy,” the report said, “the country could ultimately experience a financial crisis, an inflation crisis, an austerity crisis, a currency crisis, a default crisis, a gradual crisis, or some combination of crises. Any of these would cause massive disruption and substantially reduce living standards for Americans and people across the world.”

The report warned that unless policymakers enact a “thoughtful pro-growth deficit reduction package,” disaster likely lies ahead.”The United States is deeply indebted, and its finances are on an unsustainable long-term trajectory,” the report concluded. While it’s “impossible” to know when disaster will strike, “some form of crisis is almost inevitable” without a course correction, the CRFB said.


ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=e127cd82708c44b7954f67734428bc4c&cvpid=60fcecf58042419784abaf5e88b6e354&ei=7


Some people will blow this off as fearmongering. I understand that, but this country is experiencing yearly deficits approaching $2 trillion and possibly exceeding that in coming years. Some people think it's not a problem, as the US Gov't can just print or create more money. But as the report notes, that creates inflation and erodes savings and purchasing power. Most of us remember the last bout we had with inflation (2020-2022). I don't think we wanna go back to that.

IOW, it's hard to see the fiscal trajectory we're on as a society/economy continuing without some difficulties down the road that could be really bad. And almost nobody cares, which means our political parties don't care either. We've got entirely too much FWA; Elon Musk and his DOGE program was a decent start IMHO, but we need to be doing that all the time. And it's gotta be mostly on the spending side, raising taxes will have to happen cuz, well politics. The Left will want to raise taxes now and cut spending later. Yeah, I've heard that song before. This time we need to cut spending now and raise taxes later. Anybody wanna bet how far that idea will fly? Yeah, me neither.

Well as another thread is active currently about the same topic, I’ll post here what I posted there.

Zero based budgeting. No more “Interior gor $10B last year, so they get $10.2 this year”. Every expenditure if studied. Start with zero based budgeting every 10 years. So this starts in 2030.

Whatever the “ask” is from the Departments of State, Treasury, Agriculture, Interior, Justice, Defense, Commerce, Labor , HHS, HUD, Transportation, Energy, Education, VA, DHS...pick a figure--$500M. The Department of Interiors’s Budget is $11.9B so there woule be something like 22 bills to fund it. Each bill would have to self contain whatever it was funding; Yosemite would be in a single bill; not intentionally spread out over all 22 for example. Any program that is more than $500M will be a separate vote and funding. So the money for Greenland’s purchase will be a different bill. Trump’s new battleship...yep a new bill.

At the same time, starting in 2030, reduce tax returns by 10-25%. If you’re a low income earner and your birth year ends in an even number, the feds keep 10%. If you’re a high earner you get $25% held back. The next year, you get a full refund and those with an odd number as their bith year get extra with-holding.

At some point, we’ll need a robust tax hike on the middle class.
 
Well as another thread is active currently about the same topic, I’ll post here what I posted there.

Zero based budgeting. No more “Interior gor $10B last year, so they get $10.2 this year”. Every expenditure if studied. Start with zero based budgeting every 10 years. So this starts in 2030.

Whatever the “ask” is from the Departments of State, Treasury, Agriculture, Interior, Justice, Defense, Commerce, Labor , HHS, HUD, Transportation, Energy, Education, VA, DHS...pick a figure--$500M. The Department of Interiors’s Budget is $11.9B so there woule be something like 22 bills to fund it. Each bill would have to self contain whatever it was funding; Yosemite would be in a single bill; not intentionally spread out over all 22 for example. Any program that is more than $500M will be a separate vote and funding. So the money for Greenland’s purchase will be a different bill. Trump’s new battleship...yep a new bill.

At the same time, starting in 2030, reduce tax returns by 10-25%. If you’re a low income earner and your birth year ends in an even number, the feds keep 10%. If you’re a high earner you get $25% held back. The next year, you get a full refund and those with an odd number as their bith year get extra with-holding.

At some point, we’ll need a robust tax hike on the middle class.

We gotta do something, sooner or later the shit hits the fan and the longer we wait the harder it's gonna be. Whatever we do, it has to be some combination of raising more revenue and reducing spending. Maybe a combination of small VAT, higher ceiling on SSA taxed income, etc. We don't want to create a depression, so it needs to be spread over a good amount of time but it's gotta start with some kind of balanced budget that limits all spending to whatever revenues are, and overages have to be added into next year's budget.
 
We could grow our way out of debt, however there are too many people that aren't productive. They spend but produce nothing. Consider the lost productivity because industries can't fill needed job positions.

It would help if we cut down on remittances. Our immigrants send nearly a $Trillion out of the economy every year. This has to be made up by more borrowing.
 
We could grow our way out of debt, however there are too many people that aren't productive. They spend but produce nothing. Consider the lost productivity because industries can't fill needed job positions.

It would help if we cut down on remittances. Our immigrants send nearly a $Trillion out of the economy every year. This has to be made up by more borrowing.

Effective Jan 1, there is a foreign remittance tax on cash-based international money transfers out of the country by immigrants. It's only 1%, but it's a start. Don't know if it'll be effective though, enforcement might be a problem.

But I highly doubt this is going to move the needle much on debt and deficits. Also not sure the lost production due to unfilled jobs has much to do with foreign remittances. You say they spend money, right?
 
No Matter what you perceive of America and its problems...

China has bigger, more advanced problems with junk bonds and a coup.


 
No Matter what you perceive of America and its problems...

China has bigger, more advanced problems with junk bonds and a coup.




Can't say as I care a whole lot about China and their problems. Not sure I see how we are adversely affected by what's going on there. They may crack down on those who kinda step out of line over there, but will anything change much as far as we are concerned? Now, if they have a coup, that's different but I don't see that happening.
 
Effective Jan 1, there is a foreign remittance tax on cash-based international money transfers out of the country by immigrants. It's only 1%, but it's a start. Don't know if it'll be effective though, enforcement might be a problem.

But I highly doubt this is going to move the needle much on debt and deficits. Also not sure the lost production due to unfilled jobs has much to do with foreign remittances. You say they spend money, right?
Unfilled jobs and remittances are separate but substantial economic issues.

 
Can't say as I care a whole lot about China and their problems. Not sure I see how we are adversely affected by what's going on there. They may crack down on those who kinda step out of line over there, but will anything change much as far as we are concerned? Now, if they have a coup, that's different but I don't see that happening.
Taiwan for the moment is safe.
But the structure of the government of CCP is crumbling. Meaning it's going to be gone.


 
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