So Much for the Beast's Bounce: Last 2 Polls

[Meathead]

What is America going to do about this:

Economist/YouGov 7/30 - 8/1 933 RV 4.1 46 43 Clinton +3
LA Times/USC 7/27 - 8/2 2188 LV -- 44 45 Trump +1

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Nothing cause polls at this point are pointless. They're good for nothing more than campaigns to sharpen their messages & where to spend their money.

 

[Meathead]

Nothing cause polls at this point are pointless. They're good for nothing more than campaigns to sharpen their messages & where to spend their money.

To some extent I agree, but they are pretty good at showing trends at least. Over time, the race has narrowed.

 

[bendog]

What is America going to do about this:

Economist/YouGov 7/30 - 8/1 933 RV 4.1 46 43 Clinton +3
LA Times/USC 7/27 - 8/2 2188 LV -- 44 45 Trump +1

The LA Times Poll is useless because it's model is scewed, but the Economist you gov is interesting because it shows Hillary's margin as exactly the average of the two previous econ you gov polls taken before the convention.

And that might support my "hunch" that Hillary's convention didn't give her a real bounce. It may have hurt Donald, but more so it may have stemmed the bleeding from Comey. That is, the polls may essentially be back to where they were before either convention.

The question will be next week's polls and whether they show whether Donald's recent miscues have cost him.

 

[DarkFury]

Nothing cause polls at this point are pointless. They're good for nothing more than campaigns to sharpen their messages & where to spend their money.

To some extent I agree, but they are pretty good at showing trends at least. Over time, the race has narrowed.

I think the race has always been close. The press is just moving the numbers so they don't look like idiots Nov. 9th.

 

[dannyboys]

Nothing cause polls at this point are pointless. They're good for nothing more than campaigns to sharpen their messages & where to spend their money.

Every fucking MSNBC talking bobble head (why do all the negro women on MSNBC have straightened 'Whitey hair?) and the negro men and everyone else in the tank for Hillary declared last week if Hillary did not get at least an 8 point 'bounce' she will be in deep shit come election day.
The bitch's 'bump' disappeared like a fart in the wind within a few days.

 

[bendog]

Nothing cause polls at this point are pointless. They're good for nothing more than campaigns to sharpen their messages & where to spend their money.

Every fucking MSNBC talking bobble head (why do all the negro women on MSNBC have straightened 'Whitey hair?) and the negro men and everyone else in the tank for Hillary declared last week if Hillary did not get at least an 8 point 'bounce' she will be in deep shit come election day.
The bitch's 'bump' disappeared like a fart in the wind within a few days.

No, there's an undeniable switch in the polls since the Dem convention. But that does not necessarily mean much. It's still close in the polls. Though the last two supposedly giving Trump some momentum, I'd take with a grain of salt ... and lime and tequila.

But if the polls next week don't show some drop for Donald, then Hillary is looking not so good.

 

[AceRothstein]

What is America going to do about this:

Economist/YouGov 7/30 - 8/1 933 RV 4.1 46 43 Clinton +3
LA Times/USC 7/27 - 8/2 2188 LV -- 44 45 Trump +1

You should take a closer look at the LA Times poll. It isn't good news for Trump.

 

[Meathead]

What is America going to do about this:

Economist/YouGov 7/30 - 8/1 933 RV 4.1 46 43 Clinton +3
LA Times/USC 7/27 - 8/2 2188 LV -- 44 45 Trump +1

You should take a closer look at the LA Times poll. It isn't good news for Trump.

No, of course his being +1 against the Beast is a catastrophe.

 

[B. Kidd]

Hopefully, 'The Donald' gets it together and the Giuliani/Gingrich, et al. intervention works by Labor Day; as Trump has been coming from Iowa (I'm Out Wandering Around) for the last week.

 

[AceRothstein]

What is America going to do about this:

Economist/YouGov 7/30 - 8/1 933 RV 4.1 46 43 Clinton +3
LA Times/USC 7/27 - 8/2 2188 LV -- 44 45 Trump +1

You should take a closer look at the LA Times poll. It isn't good news for Trump.

No, of course his being +1 against the Beast is a catastrophe.

It is a tracking poll, they report the prior 7 day's results every morning. So today's poll is reflecting interviews from 7/27-8/2. Tomorrow will be 7/28-8/3 and so on. Because of this, the poll isn't even fully taking into account the entire DNC and Trump has already lost 5 points during that time. He's dropping like a stone.

 

[toomuchtime_]

What is America going to do about this:

Economist/YouGov 7/30 - 8/1 933 RV 4.1 46 43 Clinton +3
LA Times/USC 7/27 - 8/2 2188 LV -- 44 45 Trump +1

The LA Times Poll is useless because it's model is scewed, but the Economist you gov is interesting because it shows Hillary's margin as exactly the average of the two previous econ you gov polls taken before the convention.

And that might support my "hunch" that Hillary's convention didn't give her a real bounce. It may have hurt Donald, but more so it may have stemmed the bleeding from Comey. That is, the polls may essentially be back to where they were before either convention.

The question will be next week's polls and whether they show whether Donald's recent miscues have cost him.

The LATIMES poll is a rolling average of daily polls of likely voters over the last seven days, so it is hardly useless. The Economist/YouGov poll is a snapshot of registered voters, not likely voters. The two polls are simply not comparable.

 

[blackhawk]

It has been almost a week now since the Democratic convention ended Trumps bounce started to fade in about the same time frame as Hillarys is now. It was pretty much expected neither one would get a huge bounce and what they got wouldn't last long.

 

[B. Kidd]

What is America going to do about this:

Economist/YouGov 7/30 - 8/1 933 RV 4.1 46 43 Clinton +3
LA Times/USC 7/27 - 8/2 2188 LV -- 44 45 Trump +1

You should take a closer look at the LA Times poll. It isn't good news for Trump.

No, of course his being +1 against the Beast is a catastrophe.

It is a tracking poll, they report the prior 7 day's results every morning. So today's poll is reflecting interviews from 7/27-8/2. Tomorrow will be 7/28-8/3 and so on. Because of this, the poll isn't even fully taking into account the entire DNC and Trump has already lost 5 points during that time. He's dropping like a stone.

Fortunately, it's only the post-Labor Day polls that begin to clarify the picture into Nov..

 

[AceRothstein]

What is America going to do about this:

Economist/YouGov 7/30 - 8/1 933 RV 4.1 46 43 Clinton +3
LA Times/USC 7/27 - 8/2 2188 LV -- 44 45 Trump +1

The LA Times Poll is useless because it's model is scewed, but the Economist you gov is interesting because it shows Hillary's margin as exactly the average of the two previous econ you gov polls taken before the convention.

And that might support my "hunch" that Hillary's convention didn't give her a real bounce. It may have hurt Donald, but more so it may have stemmed the bleeding from Comey. That is, the polls may essentially be back to where they were before either convention.

The question will be next week's polls and whether they show whether Donald's recent miscues have cost him.

The LATIMES poll is a rolling average of daily polls of likely voters over the last seven days, so it is hardly useless. The Economist/YouGov poll is a snapshot of registered voters, not likely voters. The two polls are simply not comparable.

The problem with the LA Times poll is that it takes forever to update based on changes in the race and it interviews the same 2000 people over and over again. That means if you took a shitty sample at the beginning of the polling that the sample will continue to be shitty. Whereas other polls may have a shitty sample as a one off, they likely aren't going to do it during every new poll.

 

[bendog]

What is America going to do about this:

Economist/YouGov 7/30 - 8/1 933 RV 4.1 46 43 Clinton +3
LA Times/USC 7/27 - 8/2 2188 LV -- 44 45 Trump +1

The LA Times Poll is useless because it's model is scewed, but the Economist you gov is interesting because it shows Hillary's margin as exactly the average of the two previous econ you gov polls taken before the convention.

And that might support my "hunch" that Hillary's convention didn't give her a real bounce. It may have hurt Donald, but more so it may have stemmed the bleeding from Comey. That is, the polls may essentially be back to where they were before either convention.

The question will be next week's polls and whether they show whether Donald's recent miscues have cost him.

The LATIMES poll is a rolling average of daily polls of likely voters over the last seven days, so it is hardly useless. The Economist/YouGov poll is a snapshot of registered voters, not likely voters. The two polls are simply not comparable.

It's been reported for some times that the LA times poll sample is skewed. It is a useless poll, but it may have some use in cancelling any bias in other polls using the avg of all polls.

 

[MACAULAY]

I think people see through the Bull-Shit.

The Democrats will do or say anything they think will get them into the White House...truth is irrelevant...and the Lap-Dog Democratic Media is prostitute and compliant.

Everybody knows this.

They understand that Trump is a rookie campaigner with some moderate personality disorders.

But, that is nothing, for those not suckling from the Federal Tit, when we look to his opponent--who is clearly a pathological liar (very dangerous personality disorder), also a crook...and an incompetent, hate-filled, abusive, coattail rider of her pussy-lovin Southern Boy husband. Without him, she would be a Notary Public in Chicago, likely dis-barred.

Sometimes only evil choices are available to human wisdom.

The Brits had to make a terrible choice back in the late 1930's. They just knew Winston Churchill was beyond mere personality disorders...and well into the Bat-Shit Crazy zone. But, he was the only one left with a set of Stones.

Americans must make a choice between evils

They are going to chose the Outsider, not the Criminal...no matter how much money and press they throw at Trump.

It has to be done.

Maybe we will get lucky like the Brits.

================

 

[bendog]

I think people see through the Bull-Shit.

The Democrats will do or say anything they think will get them into the White House...truth is irrelevant...and the Lap-Dog Democratic Media is prostitute and compliant.

Everybody knows this.

They understand that Trump is a rookie campaigner with some moderate personality disorders.

But, that is nothing, for those not suckling from the Federal Tit, when we look to his opponent--who is clearly a pathological liar (very dangerous personality disorder), also a crook...and an incompetent, hate-filled, abusive, coattail rider of her pussy-lovin Southern Boy husband. Without him, she would be a Notary Public in Chicago, likely dis-barred.

Sometimes only evil choices are available to human wisdom.

The Brits had to make a terrible choice back in the late 1930's. They just knew Winston Churchill was beyond mere personality disorders...and well into the Bat-Shit Crazy zone.

Americans must make a choice between evils

They are going to chose the Outsider, not the Criminal...no matter how much money and press they throw at Trump.

It has to be done.

Maybe we will get lucky like the Brits.

================

Trump ... churchill. You're killing me.

 

[NYcarbineer]

What is America going to do about this:

Economist/YouGov 7/30 - 8/1 933 RV 4.1 46 43 Clinton +3
LA Times/USC 7/27 - 8/2 2188 LV -- 44 45 Trump +1

The LA Times poll is up 6 points (in Clinton's favor) from last week.

 

[Iceweasel]

What is America going to do about this:

Economist/YouGov 7/30 - 8/1 933 RV 4.1 46 43 Clinton +3
LA Times/USC 7/27 - 8/2 2188 LV -- 44 45 Trump +1

You should take a closer look at the LA Times poll. It isn't good news for Trump.

No, of course his being +1 against the Beast is a catastrophe.

It is a tracking poll, they report the prior 7 day's results every morning. So today's poll is reflecting interviews from 7/27-8/2. Tomorrow will be 7/28-8/3 and so on. Because of this, the poll isn't even fully taking into account the entire DNC and Trump has already lost 5 points during that time. He's dropping like a stone.

Not according to polls posted here. You're just repeating horseshit expecting it to be taken as truth eventually, Herr Goebbels. And what for? Nobody but idiots get that spun up so early.