Since 1999 the chance a public school student being killed by a gun in school is 1 in 614,000,000

[Bootney Lee Farnsworth]

I took a peak at the article listed in the OP because the claim of the title did not include a length of time. The probability of 1 in 614,000,000 is for only one day in school. Thus if we assume a student attends school 12 school years at 180 days per school year, the probability of being murdered in school is 1 in 284,259 for the 12 year period.

By your calculations, at least 100,000 kids should die in school shootings every year.

Do you agree that the 1 in 614,000,000 is the probability of a student being killed on any one given day in school?

Maybe, but did I misunderstand you on the to 1 in 280,000? Is that per 12 year period?

 

[JoeMoma]

I took a peak at the article listed in the OP because the claim of the title did not include a length of time. The probability of 1 in 614,000,000 is for only one day in school. Thus if we assume a student attends school 12 school years at 180 days per school year, the probability of being murdered in school is 1 in 284,259 for the 12 year period.

By your calculations, at least 100,000 kids should die in school shootings every year.

Do you agree that the 1 in 614,000,000 is the probability of a student being killed on any one given day in school?

Maybe, but did I misunderstand you on the to 1 in 280,000? Is that per 12 year period?

Yes! Since that is how long a kid is expected to attend school. So with approximately 51 million kids in grades 1 -12, you could expect about 20 students killed per year. (240 per 12 years).

 

[Bootney Lee Farnsworth]

I took a peak at the article listed in the OP because the claim of the title did not include a length of time. The probability of 1 in 614,000,000 is for only one day in school. Thus if we assume a student attends school 12 school years at 180 days per school year, the probability of being murdered in school is 1 in 284,259 for the 12 year period.

By your calculations, at least 100,000 kids should die in school shootings every year.

Do you agree that the 1 in 614,000,000 is the probability of a student being killed on any one given day in school?

Maybe, but did I misunderstand you on the to 1 in 280,000? Is that per 12 year period?

Yes! Since that is how long a kid is expected to attend school. So with approximately 51 million kids in grades 1 -12, you could expect about 20 students killed per year. (240 per 12 years).

Well, that certainly makes more sense, but I calculate 15 per year at those numbers, not 20.

 

[JoeMoma]

I took a peak at the article listed in the OP because the claim of the title did not include a length of time. The probability of 1 in 614,000,000 is for only one day in school. Thus if we assume a student attends school 12 school years at 180 days per school year, the probability of being murdered in school is 1 in 284,259 for the 12 year period.

By your calculations, at least 100,000 kids should die in school shootings every year.

Do you agree that the 1 in 614,000,000 is the probability of a student being killed on any one given day in school?

Maybe, but did I misunderstand you on the to 1 in 280,000? Is that per 12 year period?

Yes! Since that is how long a kid is expected to attend school. So with approximately 51 million kids in grades 1 -12, you could expect about 20 students killed per year. (240 per 12 years).

Well, that certainly makes more sense, but I calculate 15 per year at those numbers, not 20.

Your 15 per year is accurate. I rounded some numbers in my calculation to get a quick estimate ( of 20). And perhaps I made an error other than just rounding.

 

[Bootney Lee Farnsworth]

Your 15 per year is accurate. I rounded some numbers in my calculation to get a quick estimate ( of 20). And perhaps I made an error other than just rounding.

15 is still to many. Don't get me wrong.

 

[JoeMoma]

Your 15 per year is accurate. I rounded some numbers in my calculation to get a quick estimate ( of 20). And perhaps I made an error other than just rounding.

15 is still to many. Don't get me wrong.

I agree, 15 is too many. However, we need to understand it is 15 out of 51 million to keep that number in context. We could probably save more kids lives than 15 per year by requiring kids to wear (bicycle) helments whenever they ride in a car. But are we going to do that, even though that would be a very small cost per kid?

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

The NRA doesnt allow guns in their convention.

 

[Slade3200]

Which school? How many armed defenders per student? What’s required to determine a school safe?

It's not public information, so I couldn't tell you.


You cannot deny that the most effective response to a school shooting is shooting back.

Of course not why would I deny that? But we both know there’s more to it than that

 

[Slade3200]

Which red state school has the kind of security that you’d like to model?

Texas

Teachers/staff can apply for a license and special release to carry concealed at school.

Also, public universities are no longer "gun-free" zones, meaning anyone with a license can carry concealed on any state college or university campus.

That's what caused the whole "cocks not glocks" campaign at the burnt orange school for the retarded hippie in Austin.

Which school? How many armed defenders per student? What’s required to determine a school safe?

Just getting rid of the democrat gun free zone status will do the trick....since we know from actual mass shooters that they target democrat gun free zones.....armed guards are nice, but trained and armed staff are better since shooters can't know who is and isn't carrying a gun, which will make them stop targeting schools

How many armed guards/defenders should a school like Parkland have for you to consider it a Republican Gun Zone?

 

[healthmyths]

I took a peak at the article listed in the OP because the claim of the title did not include a length of time. The probability of 1 in 614,000,000 is for only one day in school. Thus if we assume a student attends school 12 school years at 180 days per school year, the probability of being murdered in school is 1 in 284,259 for the 12 year period.

If you read closely..
The Education department reports that roughly 50 million children attend public schools for roughly 180 days per year.
Since Columbine approximate 200 students shot to death while school was in session, including Parkland,fl...
So 50 million kids at 180 days or 9 billion kid days per year on 171 billion kid years over 19 years.

 

[JoeMoma]

So 50 million kids at 180 days or 9 billion kid days per year on 171 billion kid years over 19 years.

What you talking about? What is a kid day?

 

[Coyote]

The MSM blows these events so out of proportion so as to sell advertising!
When will you people that get so agitated about banning guns wake up to reality!
Perspective | School shootings are extraordinarily rare. Why is fear of them driving policy?

View attachment 192252

And your chance of being killed by a Muslim terrorist is 1 in 3.64 billion.

 

[toobfreak]

Since 1999 the chance a public school student being killed by a gun in school is 1 in 614,000,000

The HORROR! This is an unacceptable risk to our children, we must get that figure down to at least 1 in 1,000,000,000 even if it takes banning every firearm in the country, kicking in every door, ransacking every home, and locking up a quarter-million people as felons for owning guns to get there! It's all for the children!

 

[jillian]

The MSM blows these events so out of proportion so as to sell advertising!
When will you people that get so agitated about banning guns wake up to reality!
Perspective | School shootings are extraordinarily rare. Why is fear of them driving policy?

View attachment 192252

so that makes mass shootings in schools ok?

 

[jillian]

The MSM blows these events so out of proportion so as to sell advertising!
When will you people that get so agitated about banning guns wake up to reality!
Perspective | School shootings are extraordinarily rare. Why is fear of them driving policy?

View attachment 192252

And your chance of being killed by a Muslim terrorist is 1 in 3.64 billion.

thank you for that. wish I'd thought of saying it first.

 

[toobfreak]

The MSM blows these events so out of proportion so as to sell advertising!
When will you people that get so agitated about banning guns wake up to reality!
Perspective | School shootings are extraordinarily rare. Why is fear of them driving policy?

View attachment 192252

And your chance of being killed by a Muslim terrorist is 1 in 3.64 billion.

Those odds go up considerably if you happen to work in a major landmark or are at a major outdoor public gathering.

 

[Coyote]

The MSM blows these events so out of proportion so as to sell advertising!
When will you people that get so agitated about banning guns wake up to reality!
Perspective | School shootings are extraordinarily rare. Why is fear of them driving policy?

View attachment 192252

And your chance of being killed by a Muslim terrorist is 1 in 3.64 billion.

Those odds go up considerably if you happen to work in a major landmark or are at a major outdoor public gathering.

Odds stay the same.

 

[JoeMoma]

The MSM blows these events so out of proportion so as to sell advertising!
When will you people that get so agitated about banning guns wake up to reality!
Perspective | School shootings are extraordinarily rare. Why is fear of them driving policy?

View attachment 192252

And your chance of being killed by a Muslim terrorist is 1 in 3.64 billion.

Those odds go up considerably if you happen to work in a major landmark or are at a major outdoor public gathering.

Odds stay the same.

You might want to check up conditional probability.

 

[toobfreak]

The MSM blows these events so out of proportion so as to sell advertising!
When will you people that get so agitated about banning guns wake up to reality!
Perspective | School shootings are extraordinarily rare. Why is fear of them driving policy?

View attachment 192252

And your chance of being killed by a Muslim terrorist is 1 in 3.64 billion.

Those odds go up considerably if you happen to work in a major landmark or are at a major outdoor public gathering.

Odds stay the same.

Really? You think I'm just as likely to get hit with a muslim terror attack in my home or the local library as I am at an international trade center, airport, airplane, sporting event, subway or Boston parade?

 

[Coyote]

The MSM blows these events so out of proportion so as to sell advertising!
When will you people that get so agitated about banning guns wake up to reality!
Perspective | School shootings are extraordinarily rare. Why is fear of them driving policy?

View attachment 192252

And your chance of being killed by a Muslim terrorist is 1 in 3.64 billion.

Those odds go up considerably if you happen to work in a major landmark or are at a major outdoor public gathering.

Odds stay the same.

You might want to check up conditional probability.

As in your chance of being a victim of a school shooting is higher in states with lax gun laws?

School Shootings Are More Frequent In States With Lax Gun Laws