Simple Model Predicts Temperature Pause

[flacaltenn]

The "herd" certainly is headed off a cliff. That's what herds do when they panic.. This projection of yours is a real talent Elmer. Tells me everything that I need to know about your fantasy Scientist League... Curry and Muller and Spencer and Christy and the majority of skeptics will all still have their jobs when this is over.. Bunches of the herd are going to market. If ya get my drift..

 

[flacaltenn]

Oh -- except for those US GOVT INSPECTED ones. They can't be marketed or culled. Not even for mangling scientific objectivity and professionalism.... Dem are a protected specie.

 

[IanC]

Spencer & Braswell again? The pickins are mighty slim in Denierstan.

One debunking:

Another global warming contrarian paper found to be unrealistic and inaccurate John Abraham Environment The Guardian

Ruh-roh. It's not from Skeptical Science. Flac will have to think up a new excuse to ignore it.

And speaking of sanity checks, any model that treats the whole world as an ocean is kind of lacking them. At best, Spencer showed that his imaginary planet which is nothing like earth had a low sensitivity.

unrealistic and inaccurate? you mean like the models used by the IPCC? Abraham et al decided they didnt like how S&B did their model so they changed it around and said, "see? it doesnt match up anymore". I only wish that the skeptical side had access to journal space to get rebuttals published on warming papers.

and speaking of SkS, Abraham points out his colleague is Dana Nuccitelli, and links to an article done with him and John Cook. that's not SkS?

 

[Crick]

unrealistic and inaccurate? you mean like the models used by the IPCC?

That's your defense?

 

[IanC]

unrealistic and inaccurate? you mean like the models used by the IPCC?

That's your defense?

I dont think it needs much of a defense. Have you ever defended Mann's use of the upsidedown Tiljander cores? that was worse, either a mistake or fraud. the arguments against S&B are differences in opinion. did you defend the GCM's use of a computed factor for evaporation per degree increase instead of the data driven value? no. why am I a special case that has to provide answers?

if you want to discuss any of Spencer's papers, provide an opinion first, and not just some regurgitated hit piece. prove you have a brain not a copy machine.

 

[Crick]

Because you are a special case, Ian. You're smart enough to know better, but yet you don't. We all wonder why.

 

[mamooth]

I only wish that the skeptical side had access to journal space to get rebuttals published on warming papers.

Conspiracy rambling. Boring.

and speaking of SkS, Abraham points out his colleague is Dana Nuccitelli, and links to an article done with him and John Cook. that's not SkS?

More conspiracy rambling. Boring. By golly, EVERYONE seems to be part of the Skeptical Science cabal now, therefore deniers have an excuse to ignore everyone.

if you want to discuss any of Spencer's papers, provide an opinion first, and not just some regurgitated hit piece. prove you have a brain not a copy machine/

Ah, the sweet irony of that, coming from the chief parrot.

My opinion is that Spencer mistakenly thinks curve fitting is science. That's not sanity checking, that's mathturbation, and all the competent scientists recognize it as such. Anybody can twiddle parameters to sort of fit a curve.

The actual sanity checking is not in the curve fitting, as all the deniers here mistakenly think. The actual sanity check is taking a second set of different input data, running that and seeing what happens. Real scientists do that. Spencer doesn't, because it wouldn't result in the output he wants.

But then, Spencer isn't writing for other scientists, he's writing for FOX, Drudge, Forbes, the WSJ editorial board and the Heartland Institute.

More rebuttals:

Just Put the Model Down Roy Climate Asylum

RealClimate Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedback

RealClimate How to cook a graph in three easy lessons

 

[IanC]

Because you are a special case, Ian. You're smart enough to know better, but yet you don't. We all wonder why.

there are a lot of smart people who think for themselves who have examined the evidence for catastrophic AGW and found it insufficient.

that should make you pause and think whether you should be blindly following the exaggerated story that your side is feeding you.

the best stories, excuses, mistakes, lies, misdirections, etc have some truth in them. follow the data but make your own conclusions. and for god's sake learn enough about science to know why you cannot append modern instrumental data onto the end of a proxy reconstruction.

 

[imawhosure]

lol, what the hell, I have a contrarian view too! You new greens that used to be reds, need to understand.........you only think you are going to win! What is really going to happen is......................you are ALL (including Obysmal) going to be laughed out of science, and have to find a new crisis to whine about.

Global Cooling is Here Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization

Do you really know what you are talking about?

Well, just in case you don't, let me tell you. You are using the same ole-same ole, of Mao, Stalin, and every other red clown, trying to get control of resources; what to use, what not to, and get people to buy in because of some phoeney baloney, fabricated, crisis.

Everybody is living longer! Everybody is living better! Everyone is living healthier! We have more control over our environment!

Wait, forget that you say; OMG, something bad is going to happen.........just like Al Gore predicted would happen to us, years ago. So much so, he won a great prize for his brilliance, just like you want to, lol.

You clowns have no leg to stand on, now you are trying to use your hands. You better hope a democrat gets elected, or it is Katie bar the door as the United States ramps up economically, and cleans all of your clocks.

Lets see how the world reacts when the United States can supply cheap energy, stable costs, closes the borders, and changes the savings from low energy costs and low taxes into wages for its middle class.

Yeah, elect a democrat, lol.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Spencer & Braswell again? The pickins are mighty slim in Denierstan.

One debunking:

Another global warming contrarian paper found to be unrealistic and inaccurate John Abraham Environment The Guardian

Ruh-roh. It's not from Skeptical Science. Flac will have to think up a new excuse to ignore it.

And speaking of sanity checks, any model that treats the whole world as an ocean is kind of lacking them. At best, Spencer showed that his imaginary planet which is nothing like earth had a low sensitivity.

unrealistic and inaccurate? you mean like the models used by the IPCC? Abraham et al decided they didnt like how S&B did their model so they changed it around and said, "see? it doesnt match up anymore". I only wish that the skeptical side had access to journal space to get rebuttals published on warming papers.

and speaking of SkS, Abraham points out his colleague is Dana Nuccitelli, and links to an article done with him and John Cook. that's not SkS?

LOL.... three nuts in the SKS sack... and they dont have a dam clue between them...

 

[mamooth]

Do you really know what you are talking about?

Yes. You're a brainwashed cultist.

Do you think you're the first extremist fringe cult kook to declare the entire planet is wrong, and that a vast global conspiracy is arrayed against the RealPatriots, and that only himself and a select few brave freedom fighters know the RealTruth? Cult nutters like you are a dime a dozen. You're just boring.

There is no socialist conspiracy. You're just profoundly stupid, so stupid that you let yourself get used as a UsefulIdiot by a political cult. If nobody has broken that news to you before, consider this to be your intervention.

And remember, I only tell you this because I care. It's a form of tough love, the way I treat deniers.

Now, if you can locate your courage, try talking about the science. However, if you're totally clueless about the science, just keep raving about how Al Gore won't return your mancrush, or attack whatever political groups your cult orders you to attack. You know, do those things you cultists always do. I see you've already predicted an ice age, which deniers have been doing for decades. The denier ice age never comes, but then, to a cultist, failing in the name of the cult is a badge of honor.

 

[mamooth]

that should make you pause and think whether you should be blindly following the exaggerated story that your side is feeding you.

Says the guy who constantly blindly parrots the world's most dishonest conspiracy theory, solely because a cult fed it to him.

The surface temperature adjustments make the warming look smaller. Therefore, your master conspiracy theory is a steaming pile. You, Ian, are deliberately peddling pathologically dishonest bullshit, which means you can put a sock in the moral lectures. Motes and beams, you know.

 

[imawhosure]

Do you really know what you are talking about?

Yes. You're a brainwashed cultist.

Do you think you're the first extremist fringe cult kook to declare the entire planet is wrong, and that a vast global conspiracy is arrayed against the RealPatriots, and that only himself and a select few brave freedom fighters know the RealTruth? Cult nutters like you are a dime a dozen. You're just boring.

There is no socialist conspiracy. You're just profoundly stupid, so stupid that you let yourself get used as a UsefulIdiot by a political cult. If nobody has broken that news to you before, consider this to be your intervention.

And remember, I only tell you this because I care. It's a form of tough love, the way I treat deniers.

Now, if you can locate your courage, try talking about the science. However, if you're totally clueless about the science, just keep raving about how Al Gore won't return your mancrush, or attack whatever political groups your cult orders you to attack. You know, do those things you cultists always do. I see you've already predicted an ice age, which deniers have been doing for decades. The denier ice age never comes, but then, to a cultist, failing in the name of the cult is a badge of honor.

Why would anyone with any logic believe you guys. Seriously! Nothing.....NOTHING you and your cult has said has come to pass. You keep whining, moaning, groaning, bitching, and crying, yet your predictions fail, fail, fail. They have failed consistently; so much so, nobody even reads your science, we laugh at all of you.

I have engaged many a red/greenie like you, and tell all of us......."what good is your science if you can't predict ANYTHING correctly!" Isn't New York and California supposed to be floating already ala Al Gore and host of your "fearless leaders" lol. Are you angry because you purchased a boat, just in case, and now it sits in Indianapolis with nothing to do. I bet you thought you were going to be the 2nd Noah, didn't you, hehehehehehehehe.

You realize that you are dealing with adults don't you? Do you and your "comrades" understand that if you were a financial planner, and you and your "comrades" gave financial predictions as accurate as your enviro predictions, you would probably be in jail for malfeasance!

You can talk crapola all you want FEARMONGER, but truth is, the lot of you are so LOW in accuracy about everything that YOU predicted would already have happened, the ants have to lift their legs to piss on you!

Go find some little kiddies to scare, most of us aren't buying any of your nonsense!

But never fear, I am here to help you, just like I help all young people who have been brainwashed by the "green is the new red" faction of the left. You are just one of many indoctrinated people, probably in college or just out, who now think you know it all, lol.

Shhhhhhhh, if you don't tell anyone, I won't either, but you are wet behind the ears, and DON'T KNOW YOUR ASS FROM A HOLE IN THE GROUND!

Now go grow up, come back when you grow a few whiskers, and actually know something worth repeating!!!!!!

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

Climate-science contrarian Roy Spencer s oil-industry ties
Spencer doesn't disclose his leadership roles in climate skeptic groups financed by Exxon and other key players in what's been dubbed the "climate denial machine": the network of companies, think tanks and foundations that have sought to deny and downplay the scientific consensus that global warming is real and caused in large part by human activity.
[after Spencer's report was published]

Vienna University of Technology professor Wolfgang Wagner -- resigned and apologized,saying the paper was not vetted properly:................

The problem is that comparable studies published by other authors have already been refuted in open discussions and to some extend also in the literature (cf. [7]), a fact which was ignored by Spencer and Braswell in their paper and, unfortunately, not picked up by the reviewers. In other words, the problem I see with the paper by Spencer and Braswell is not that it declared a minority view (which was later unfortunately much exaggerated by the public media) but that it essentially ignored the scientific arguments of its opponents. This latter point was missed in the review process, explaining why I perceive this paper to be fundamentally flawed and therefore wrongly accepted by the journal.

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

This wasn't the first time other scientists found serious problems with the work of Spencer and his ESSC colleagues, as Trenberth detailed in another article he wrote about the controversy with John Abraham and Peter Gleick at The Daily Climate:

Climate-science contrarian Roy Spencer s oil-industry ties

Their errors date to the mid-1990s, when their satellite temperature record reportedly showed the lower atmosphere was cooling. As obvious and serious errors in that analysis were made public, Spencer and [current ESSC Director John] Christy were forced to revise their work several times and, not surprisingly, their findings agree better with those of other scientists around the world: the atmosphere is warming.

Over the years, Spencer and Christy developed a reputation for making serial mistakes that other scientists have been forced to uncover. Last Thursday, for instance, the Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres published a study led by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory climate scientist Ben Santer. Their findings showed that Christy erred in claiming that recent atmospheric temperature trends are not replicated in models.

 

[mamooth]

Why would anyone with any logic believe you guys. Seriously! Nothing.....NOTHING you and your cult has said has come to pass.

No, all the predictions have been very good. That's why climate science has such credibility across the world, because it's been getting everything so right for decades.

I understand why you didn't know that. Your cult didn't see fit to tell you. Since cults forbid cultists from looking at non-cult sources, you only know what your cult spoonfeeds you.

I have engaged many a red/greenie like you,

"How sweet, fresh meat."
--- Freddie Kruger.

and tell all of us.......

I tell you "You're all conspiracy cultists."

You're exactly the same as birthers, 9/11 truthers, antivaxxers, flat earthers and other conspiracy cultists. Just like you, they all declare the whole planet is conspiring against them, and that only a select few RealPatriots know the RealTruth. And just like you, they have an array of kook cult websites that they exclusively get their info from.

"what good is your science if you can't predict ANYTHING correctly!"

Since climate science predicts everything correctly, it's obviously very useful.

In direct contrast, every prediction you deniers have made fails hard. Still no ice age, despite deniers predicting it nonstop.

Isn't New York and California supposed to be floating already

Of course not. Nobody predicted that. You're blindly parroting some of the nonsense that your cult fed you. You know nothing about the actual science.

You realize that you are dealing with adults don't you?

I'm dealing with deniers, who are more like frightened children, constantly hyped into a state of hysterical terror by their political cult. Just look at you, always screaming about the phantom socialists which nobody but you can see.

Because of your low intelligence and innately sheepish nature, your political cult was able to enlist you in their cadre of Useful Idiots. They said jump, you jumped. That's obvious to all the normal people. The key is getting you to understand it, and that's usually impossible. The cultists at Jonestown would have denied being cultists too, right up until the koolaid vat was rolled out.

 

[jc456]

Do you really know what you are talking about?

Yes. You're a brainwashed cultist.

Do you think you're the first extremist fringe cult kook to declare the entire planet is wrong, and that a vast global conspiracy is arrayed against the RealPatriots, and that only himself and a select few brave freedom fighters know the RealTruth? Cult nutters like you are a dime a dozen. You're just boring.

There is no socialist conspiracy. You're just profoundly stupid, so stupid that you let yourself get used as a UsefulIdiot by a political cult. If nobody has broken that news to you before, consider this to be your intervention.

And remember, I only tell you this because I care. It's a form of tough love, the way I treat deniers.

Now, if you can locate your courage, try talking about the science. However, if you're totally clueless about the science, just keep raving about how Al Gore won't return your mancrush, or attack whatever political groups your cult orders you to attack. You know, do those things you cultists always do. I see you've already predicted an ice age, which deniers have been doing for decades. The denier ice age never comes, but then, to a cultist, failing in the name of the cult is a badge of honor.

what is it 75 out of thousands of scientists? That's the whole world? LOL you will never get it. You're lost in your religion and can't get out. too fnnn funny eh?

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

FACTSHEET: ROY W. SPENCER
DETAILS
Principal Research Scientist, University of Alabama
-Science Roundtable Member, Tech Central Station. -Scientific Advisor, Interfaith Stewardship Council. -Principal Research Scientist and climate research director, University of Alabama -Science Roundtable Member, Tech Central Station -U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA's Aqua satellite, used for collecting and reporting global temperature data. - Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center -Cornwall Alliance contributing scientist and co-author of our “Call to Truth”

He is a member of the Heartland Institute, a contributor to the George C. Marshall Institute, and the favorite climatologist of Rush Limbaugh. In addition to being skeptical about the existence of climate change, Dr. Spencer also doubts the theory of evolution.

Ph.D. in Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin in 1981. TCS bio: Tech Central Station

 

[jc456]

FACTSHEET: ROY W. SPENCER
DETAILS
Principal Research Scientist, University of Alabama
-Science Roundtable Member, Tech Central Station. -Scientific Advisor, Interfaith Stewardship Council. -Principal Research Scientist and climate research director, University of Alabama -Science Roundtable Member, Tech Central Station -U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA's Aqua satellite, used for collecting and reporting global temperature data. - Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center -Cornwall Alliance contributing scientist and co-author of our “Call to Truth”

He is a member of the Heartland Institute, a contributor to the George C. Marshall Institute, and the favorite climatologist of Rush Limbaugh. In addition to being skeptical about the existence of climate change, Dr. Spencer also doubts the theory of evolution.

Ph.D. in Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin in 1981. TCS bio: Tech Central Station

And..........

 

[Billy_Bob]

FACTSHEET: ROY W. SPENCER
DETAILS
Principal Research Scientist, University of Alabama
-Science Roundtable Member, Tech Central Station. -Scientific Advisor, Interfaith Stewardship Council. -Principal Research Scientist and climate research director, University of Alabama -Science Roundtable Member, Tech Central Station -U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA's Aqua satellite, used for collecting and reporting global temperature data. - Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center -Cornwall Alliance contributing scientist and co-author of our “Call to Truth”

He is a member of the Heartland Institute, a contributor to the George C. Marshall Institute, and the favorite climatologist of Rush Limbaugh. In addition to being skeptical about the existence of climate change, Dr. Spencer also doubts the theory of evolution.

Ph.D. in Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin in 1981. TCS bio: Tech Central Station

And..........

Tyroeshoelaces hasn't got an argument... He is only interested in slandering and maligning people. He is a left wing environaziwacko who will post anything if he thinks it will keep others from finding the truth. He only hears what his keepers tell him and he is conditioned to respond like a lunatic at all people who show his religion fraud and a cult.

Dr Spencer is in his sites because Dr Spencer has show tyroneshoelaces wrong and a liar. Tyroneshoelaces cant debate with grown ups as he is a spoiled brat who throws a tantrum when he dont get his way... I suppose he is suffering from PRE-Trumatic Stress Syndrome... Those real scientists from Heartland Institute and UAH seem to make him go sideways..