Republican Pollsters Say If Minorities Turn Out Like 2000, Kerry Wins In A Landslide

[NATO AIR]

did i or someone else mention this months ago? if minorities like arabs, blacks and latinos voted like they did in 2000 (and arabs voting this time for kerry, not bush in majority numbers), the democrats would win if it was a close race otherwise?

if this is true, the evangecials better come out to vote like they were going to see the passion of christ.

from source site: http://www.fabmac.com/releases.html

http://www.fabmac.com/FMA-2004-10-27-Battleground-Ballot.pdf
However, as the data below illustrates, when the data is weighted to reflect minority turnout based
on the 2000 exit polls, Sen. Kerry leads by 3.5% and if minority turnout is weighted to census levels Sen.
Kerry’s lead expands to 5.2%
“It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen.
Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President’s campaign. If one assumes minority turnout exceeds
their 2000 election levels, then it appears a number of these states would tip to Sen. Kerry,” Fabrizio concluded.

 

[onedomino]

The question is who will win 270 electoral votes? Minorities are greatest in states that are already counted as lost for Bush: New York, Pennsylvania, the entire West Coast, ethnic arabs in Michigan. There are two states that will make the difference: Ohio and Florida. These states do have significant minority populations, but the 10.26 Zogby poll in Ohio shows Bush ahead by 46-44 (within the margin of error) and leading in Florida 49-45. It will be very close on 2 November. I filled out my "sample ballot" tonight. There are 21 propositions on the California/Santa Barbara ballot.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

 

[NATO AIR]

The question is who will win 270 electoral votes? Minorities are greatest in states that are already counted as lost for Bush: New York, Pennsylvania, the entire West Coast, ethnic arabs in Michigan. There are two states that will make the difference: Ohio and Florida. These states do have significant minority populations, but the 10.26 Zogby poll in Ohio shows Bush ahead by 46-44 (within the margin of error) and leading in Florida 49-45. It will be very close on 2 November. I filled out my "sample ballot" tonight. There are 21 propositions on the California/Santa Barbara ballot.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

damn that's a lot of props to sift through. any interesting ones you found?

btw, arabs are also in considerable number in florida, as are non-cuban latinos. latinos are increasingly found in ohio. believe it or not, also in missouri. blacks are big time in milwaukee, wisconsin. i don't care what anybody on this board says (not criticizing you onedomino), minorities are going to show out in force in this election. it will have next to nothing to do with security or iraq, it will be about jobs and the economy. and where you think that helps/hurt bush and kerry is based on what news you watch and listen to and where you think the economy is heading. gonna be a hell of a showdown on tuesday.

 

[onedomino]

damn that's a lot of props to sift through. any interesting ones you found?

$750 million 30 year bond prop on funding children's hospitals. By the time the bonds are paid off, it will cost taxpayers $1.5 billion. I intend to vote yes anyway.

Prop on whether declared party affiliation is necessary to vote in a party's primary. Voting no on this prop means affliation is necessary. This is contrary to the current situation in California. I will vote yes.

Prop that ensures that local property and sales taxes stay within the locality where they are collected. This will hurt among other things the State University of California system, rural hospital funding, and other important programs that have no tax base. I will vote no.

Prop on whether casino gambling can be extended outside Indian reservations. I will vote no.

Prop on whether Indians should pay state tax on casino gambling. I will vote yes.

Prop to raise money for mental health issues by placing additional 1 percent tax only on income over $1 million. I favor more money to help the mentally ill, but this is not the way to get it. I will vote no.

 

[NATO AIR]

$750 million 30 year bond prop on funding children's hospitals. By the time the bonds are paid off, it will cost taxpayers $1.5 billion. I intend to vote yes anyway.

Prop on whether declared party affiliation is necessary to vote in a party's primary. Voting no on this prop means affliation is necessary. This is contrary to the current situation in California. I will vote yes.

Prop that ensures that local property and sales taxes stay within the locality where they are collected. This will hurt among other things the State University of California system, rural hospital funding, and other important programs that have no tax base. I will vote no.

Prop on whether casino gambling can be extended outside Indian reservations. I will vote no.

Prop on whether Indians should pay state tax on casino gambling. I will vote yes.

Prop to raise money for mental health issues by placing additional 1 percent tax only on income over $1 million. I favor more money to help the mentally ill, but this is not the way to get it. I will vote no.

good stuff, i hope the indians pay the state taxes and mental health issues get more funding somehow after the election without the higher tax.

 

[nakedemperor]

damn that's a lot of props to sift through. any interesting ones you found?

btw, arabs are also in considerable number in florida, as are non-cuban latinos. latinos are increasingly found in ohio. believe it or not, also in missouri. blacks are big time in milwaukee, wisconsin. i don't care what anybody on this board says (not criticizing you onedomino), minorities are going to show out in force in this election. it will have next to nothing to do with security or iraq, it will be about jobs and the economy. and where you think that helps/hurt bush and kerry is based on what news you watch and listen to and where you think the economy is heading. gonna be a hell of a showdown on tuesday.

The close race in Colorado also can be attributed in part to the growing Latino population there; the fastest growing minority population in the Rocky Mountain regioin.

 

[no1tovote4]

The close race in Colorado also can be attributed in part to the growing Latino population there; the fastest growing minority population in the Rocky Mountain regioin.

Yeah, the race is so close here that there has only been one Poll that had Bush below 5% ahead of Kerry. They keep saying it is close every election and it turns out wrong, last year the polls had Bush/Gore tied on election night and Bush won by 9%. This is one of the myths of Colorado that will never cease to amaze me, it is never as "close" here as the left seems to want us to think.

 

[Avatar4321]

Yeah, the race is so close here that there has only been one Poll that had Bush below 5% ahead of Kerry. They keep saying it is close every election and it turns out wrong, last year the polls had Bush/Gore tied on election night and Bush won by 9%. This is one of the myths of Colorado that will never cease to amaze me, it is never as "close" here as the left seems to want us to think.

I was thinking the same thing (i have family in Colorado) so i know alittle about whats going out out there. heck i was in Colorado for Thanksgiving during the 2000 fight.

I think the situation in Colorado is quite similar as in other states. like Florida. correct me if im wrong but didnt they say Florida was a dead heat between Jeb and his Democrat Opponent? And then Jeb won by frickin 15%.

Also Ohio. I dont think its in play anymore. I think Bush has it wrapped up short of alot of voter fraud by Kerry. If Ohio was as close as everyones saying i think Bush would be going there more. but he isnt he is campaigning in Blue states. It just doesnt make sense if this race is as close as they are saying.

I think the media wants this nation to be close. Election controversy gets everyoen watching. If one person had a commanding lead the media wouldnt want the people to know it because then no one would pay attention to them and deffinately wouldnt pay attention Tuesday night. With the election so "close" the media gets more audience and the bills get paid.

 

[no1tovote4]

Also Ohio. I dont think its in play anymore. I think Bush has it wrapped up short of alot of voter fraud by Kerry. If Ohio was as close as everyones saying i think Bush would be going there more. but he isnt he is campaigning in Blue states. It just doesnt make sense if this race is as close as they are saying.

I can only hope you are right, if you are then this election is sewn up for Bush and I can cease to worry about a Kerry pResidency. I can then bring my attention to bear to either drafting Colin Powell for 2008 or Ron Paul.

I think a Powell/Paul ticket would stomp all opposition into the ground.

 

[theim]

Well the Real Clear Politcs average has Kerry up 1 or 2 % in Ohio

 

[Avatar4321]

I can only hope you are right, if you are then this election is sewn up for Bush and I can cease to worry about a Kerry pResidency. I can then bring my attention to bear to either drafting Colin Powell for 2008 or Ron Paul.

I think a Powell/Paul ticket would stomp all opposition into the ground.

Well even if im right we still have to wait to see if people actually show up. I think the Republican base in energized though and i dont really see signs of the Democrat base being energized. Kerry has spent the last few weeks in states and areas that he should be strong in already. Anything could change before tuesday. we may wake up tomorrow to another terrorist attack. or Any number of things. And we cant forget, Kerry should be getting hit with a strong october surprise soon. Not sure what it will be yet. perhaps it has something to do with his discharge but who knows.

 

[Avatar4321]

Well the Real Clear Politcs average has Kerry up 1 or 2 % in Ohio

Dont worry about the polls. the only polls that matter are the ones were the people vote on Tuesday. It doesnt matter what the media says. get out the vote and get your friends out to vote. This isnt a time to waiver.

 

[Avatar4321]

Also i want to again emphasis that two years ago in Florida the media said that the polls had the governors race between Jeb and his opponent tied. Yet Jeb won with 15%. The media needs to make money. they do this by having people watching. If they announced that Bush was killing Kerry in the polls or vice versa, no one would care anymore and they would have no money.

The media was doing this during the Dem primaries. They tried to make it look like there was still a contest when kerry had sown it up immediately.Dont believe what a poll says. get out and vote. Its the only poll that matters.

 

[nakedemperor]

"Close" is a relative term-- I meant it in the sense that, well, they were close, not necessarily neck-and-neck, or within the margin of error. As long as the race does stay close in this state (and it most assuredly will with <1 week to go), the loser stands to gain 4 out of the 9 electoral votes in Colorado if the election-by-district proposition goes through.

 

[no1tovote4]

"Close" is a relative term-- I meant it in the sense that, well, they were close, not necessarily neck-and-neck, or within the margin of error. As long as the race does stay close in this state (and it most assuredly will with <1 week to go), the loser stands to gain 4 out of the 9 electoral votes in Colorado if the election-by-district proposition goes through.

That is going down as well, the winner will get all nine. Polls show that losing by a huge margin in this state. Probably because most people see it as a desperate grab by the minority party to get more Electoral Votes than they are due. Plus the whole funded by a group in California thing always makes Amendments lose in Colorado.

I would support this Amendment in California, but not for my State. Good thing it will go down by over 65% of the vote.

 

[White knight]

There are two states that will make the difference: Ohio and Florida. These states do have significant minority populations, but the 10.26 Zogby poll in Ohio shows Bush ahead by 46-44

That is why they are targeting the black voters in Florida, watch this BBC news special report.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nolavconsole/ukfs_news/hi/newsid_3950000/newsid_3957100/nb_wm_3957141.stm Black voters targeted

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nolavconsole/...vote_usa_2004/vote_usa_2004/nb_wm_default.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3960679.stm Florida Ballots go missing.

Bush should not have snubbed the ACLU, it might cost him the election.