Once more, I'll show the FA's suckass prediction for Winter 2013-2014
Long-Range Weather Forecast 2014 United States and Canada
The FA prediced "Mild and dry" for Indiana. It was very cold and very snowy.
The FA predicted "Wet" for California. It was very dry.
They got some things right, but, like I said, coin flip.
Let's look at their predictions for summer 2014.
Will This Summer Be a Scorcher - Farmers Almanac
A total botch. It was a cool summer across most of the USA, but the FA declared it would be a scorcher.
This source discusses how the FA gets their "80% accuracy!" claims.
Probing Question Is the Farmers Almanac accurate Penn State University
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"They say from November 5 thru 10, for that whole period: sunny/cool. If one day is sunny and cool, does that count? Does every day have to be sunny and cool? If you held them to every single word for the entire area and every word for the entire period, then I say they might not even be right one third of the time. In fact, they might be right 10 percent of the time." Acknowledges Knight, "I don't think they're holding themselves to that degree of accuracy, and I don't think other people are either."
"I could say things like October 8 to 15 in this area: generally dry, very cool weather expected; first frost and freezes in the valleys. And I would be right probably eight out of 10 years," says Knight. "I could say February 12 to 19: heavy snow along parts of the eastern seaboard. I'm going to be right seven out of 10 years. There is some relative frequency to these things, but to say that this is of great scientific accuracy would be a real misnomer."
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And there are the studies showing how the FA does no better than a coin flip.
Dr. Jeff Masters WunderBlog Winter forecast part III the Old Farmer s Almanac Weather Underground
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Studies by Jan Null
Jan Null, a meteorologist who founded the private weather consulting firm,
Golden Gate Weather in California, has evaluated the Old Farmer's Almanac predictions for San Francisco for three separate years. His first study looked at the forecasts for
1999-2000. His conclusion: "Even trying to be objective and giving the benefit of the doubt to cases that were close, I found last year's forecast from the Old Farmer's 2000 Almanac for San Francisco to be laughable at best and abysmal at worst. The Old Farmer's Almanac was wrong on their monthly temperature forecast 8 out of the 12 months (67%) and wrong on their rainfall forecast 5 of the 8 months evaluated (63%)". His grade for the Old Farmer's Almanac winter forecast for San Francisco during 2006-2007
was a D+. He also evaluated the Old Farmer's Almanac for two separate summers and winters for all sixteen regions of the U.S., and found mostly poor results. For the
summer of 2005, just one of the sixteen Old Farmer's Almanac regional forecasts got both the temperature and the precipitation correct. He plans to post a verification of their 2008 summer forecast sometime in the next week.
Weatherwise magazine study
In the October 1981 issue of Weatherwise magazine, pages 212-215, John E. Walsh and David Allen performed a check on the accuracy of 60 monthly forecasts of temperature and precipitation from the Old Farmer's Almanac at 32 stations in the U.S. They found that 50.7% of the monthly temperature forecasts and 51.9% of the precipitation forecasts verified with the correct sign. This compares with the 50% success rate expected by chance.
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Naturally, none of this will matter to the true believers here. It's part of their religious beliefs that the FA has perfect accuracy, so no mere facts and data will convince them to let go of that superstition.
the FA has stated they are 80% accurate, I request that you prove they aren't. Prove it
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