Jeb Bush/Michelle Bachmann with a promise to appoint John Bolton as Secretary of State.
Hey, why not? As I see it, this next general election is the Tea Party enhanced GOP's to loose. The left points to the ‘Division in the GOP’! But, what are they arguing about? It seems they hear the electorate’s call for major cuts in and downsizing of government and are trying to out do each other in the amounts to be cut. The Party in charge of the White House and Senate seem marginalized and reduced to making silly comparisons between Reagan/Obama and being the party of saying ‘NO’ to efforts to repeal Obamacare. I predicted that Obamacare would be
the issue for the GOP to run on in 2010 but PelosiÂ’s counsel about passing it to see whatÂ’s in it has come true and has transformed Obamacare into an important 2012 election issue too.
TrumpÂ’s chances of getting the nod are the same as he says PaulÂ’s are: not going to happen.
Romney is the only Republican who will get beat because of Obamacare being so unpopular. During the 2012 campaign Obama will ask, about a GOP Mitt candidancy: “What are the Republicans complaining about my health care bill for? They nominated a guy that agrees with me; just look at the healthcare bill he signed in MA!”
Of course, even conservative pundits give President Obama a better than even chance of re-election, but even that opinion seems to be driven, mostly, by the fact that it is, historically, extremely difficult to unseat an incumbent President…but not impossible. So what determines? “Well, dear people, events.” (I paraphrase some English guy’s quote)
So, letÂ’s examine some stuff.
Domestically, Americans are very concerned about the weak economy and unemployment and underemployment (9% and 16% respectfully). The underemployment figure is most telling because it reveals that we now have many citizens that have been out of work for over two years (27 months, but who is counting?). Obama has continually blamed the bad economy on the past Bush administration. Recently, (well, after 2 yrs of such rhetoric anyway) the administration has dialed back these excuses but this doesn't (in the public's eyes) warrant the legislative and executive abrogation towards solving the economy problem. The public has seen massive, and time consuming, legislative efforts towards ‘Comprehensive Health Care’ and ‘Financial Reform’ of big banks (Note here that Wall Street Banks’ et al donations towards the Dems was 67% of their total political donations for the 2008 elections. Also President Obama's regulators have tried to take over the internet (see FCC's efforts towards Net Neutrality [
Tech at Night: Net Neutrality Reactions | RedState ]) and invoke cap and trade carbon (EPA) policies by fiat. His DOJ has refused to prosecute fully, Federal election laws and even legally attack those states that felt it necessary to protect their borders with Mexico.
Every so often the administration notifies us it will 'pivot' to jobs and the economy when everybody in America knows that this should have been the Obama's administration's intial and most important initiative from day one. The latest of these WTF (No, No...
Win
The
Freedom here) moments came in his latest SOTU speech where he now is, finally, following through on...High Speed Rail!
We all know that Obama won the 2008 campaign through the support of Independent voters. But, 2010 has seen a declarative shift in voters; 42% now claim the conservative label. (
In 2010, Conservatives Still Outnumber Moderates, Liberals ) Interestingly, although the liberals lost 2% of this population, that 2% have moved to the right so that Independent ranks have increased. We also know that among the most damaging issues to the Dems in the 2010's was the passage of Obamacare and the Dems refusal to address the problem of the economy and the stimulus that seemed to
add to the unemployment problem. Simply put, unlike Clinton's re-election, Obama's will have to deal with an widely unpopular health care law (
Health Care Law - Rasmussen Reports™ )
passed in the dead of night by legal but questionable parliamentary procedures through the efforts of the party he currently leads. Clinton had the good fortune to be able to walk away from HillaryCare after its defeat and move to the center. Even if Obama wanted to follow BubbaÂ’s move to the center (and all indications are he will not), he still has his Obamacare albatross come the 2012 general election.
Further, because of Obamacare the President will have a devil of a time winning independents in 2012 because 70% oppose Obamacare and realize that it cannot see the repeal of a bill that will kill their present insurance or raise its cost and raise the federal deficit in the offing while Obama is still a sitting President (
70 Percent of Independents Support Repeal | The Weekly Standard ). Moreover, 54% favor the right of states to opt out of Obamacare. Additionally 61% feel the waivers to Obamacare given to some but not others represent some sort of basic unfairness demonstrated by the Administration. (
Majority of Voters Still Question Health Care Waivers, Think They Should Be Given To All - Rasmussen Reports™ )
The long and short of it is that if Obama wants to be elected he will have to embrace the opposite fiscal and spending policies of a increasingly statist Democratic Party (
Democratic Leadership Council, a voice of party centrism, closes its doors - Los Angeles Times ) , help the GOP repeal Obamacare and actually behave like Clinton and not just hire some underlings who worked with Slick Willie. However, Obama would be well advised to stay away from the female interns unless he wants to have wife Michelle attempt to throw a can of Pepsi Max upside his head.
Although a secondary thought to most Americans, Obama and his administration's Foreign Policy seems, to many, Carteresque. If in late 2012 the Muslim Brotherhood has become a political force in Egypt, those comparisons regarding Obama will refer, not to Reagan, but Jimmy Carter. His world apology tour, dissing of long term allies, bowing and scraping before medieval tyrants in the Middle East and wanta-be Marxist dictators (although maybe Obama's on to something here [
Marxist Democrat Cringes As Russian Immigrants Compare Communism toÂ…Democrats! | RedState ] and, especially, ObamaÂ’s dissonance regarding the freedom movements of Honduras, Iran, and Egypt that call into question this President's belief in his country's valueÂ’s and principles to the world, will not work towards his re-election in 2012.
Add the liberal mediaÂ’s adherence to the Taranto principle (
The American Spectator : The Taranto Principle ) , the GOPÂ’s invigoration by way of the Tea PartyÂ’s demanding of the following of the FounderÂ’s values, and a successful refinancing of the RNC (with a new Chairman at the helm) it is a good time to be a happy conservative warrior!
JM
