Polling errors in 2016 and 2020.

[MarathonMike]

The polling errors before the 2016 election were stunning. So much so that the "lock" that Hillary had on the election all went up in smoke and tears on election night. The pollsters were destroyed on their crap numbers and they vowed to do better in 2020. Well guess what happened? The 2020 polling errors were EVEN WORSE overstating Biden's edge by nearly 4 percent. If the pollsters didn't learn from their mistakes in 2020 why does anyone think they will be better in 2024? Don't believe the polling numbers.

 

[Care4all]

Polling was fairly accurate before trump....but not good since he has been on the scene!!

I'm not certain if it is him that causes the discrepancy margins, or that perhaps cell phones vs home phones polling is still messing pollsters up?

 

[candycorn]

Polling was fairly accurate before trump....but not good since he has been on the scene!!

I'm not certain if it is him that causes the discrepancy margins, or that perhaps cell phones vs home phones polling is still messing pollsters up?

Its still pretty accurate. When a nation of 300+M and nearly 200M registered voters has a margin in the tens of thousands...no polling apparatus in the universe is going to deliver with absolute precision.

The trends favor Harris

Poller Coaster

But but didn’t democrats assure us that Hillary was already installed in the White House? After that did they not go on a rant everytime a poll was shown that polls were useless and should never be believed? Now suddenly they are not only to be believed but they appear to be able to suddenly...

www.usmessageboard.com

 

[JoeB131]

The polling errors before the 2016 election were stunning. So much so that the "lock" that Hillary had on the election all went up in smoke and tears on election night. The pollsters were destroyed on their crap numbers and they vowed to do better in 2020. Well guess what happened? The 2020 polling errors were EVEN WORSE overstating Biden's edge by nearly 4 percent. If the pollsters didn't learn from their mistakes in 2020 why does anyone think they will be better in 2024? Don't believe the polling numbers.

Actually, they got it pretty much right in 2020. Biden Beat Trump by about- wait for it- Four points. 51% to 47%.

I'm sure they've refined their models further since then.

 

[MarathonMike]

Actually, they got it pretty much right in 2020. Biden Beat Trump by about- wait for it- Four points. 51% to 47%.

I'm sure they've refined their models further since then.

Those were the popular vote percentages. The polling errors were in the swing states that decided the election by less than 50,000 votes. California and New York always give Democrats an automatic bump in popular vote.

 

[MarathonMike]

Its still pretty accurate. When a nation of 300+M and nearly 200M registered voters has a margin in the tens of thousands...no polling apparatus in the universe is going to deliver with absolute precision.

The trends favor Harris

Poller Coaster

But but didn’t democrats assure us that Hillary was already installed in the White House? After that did they not go on a rant everytime a poll was shown that polls were useless and should never be believed? Now suddenly they are not only to be believed but they appear to be able to suddenly...

www.usmessageboard.com

Yeah you're right, Kamala has it in the bag.

 

[candycorn]

Yeah you're right, Kamala has it in the bag.

Far from it.

The trend favors Harris. Trump needs a game changer.

 

[yidnar]

Actually, they got it pretty much right in 2020. Biden Beat Trump by about- wait for it- Four points. 51% to 47%.

I'm sure they've refined their models further since then.

Briben was up 10.8 points in Oct of 2020 .. Briben won the electoral college by only 40 thousand votes .. Hillary was up nearly 6 points and lost the electoral college .. right now the polling is within the margin of error and very very close ..and Trump is up a little in most of the battle ground states ! he's polling much higher than he did in 2020 and yes ... 2016 ! are you starting to get a little nervous ! if Trump wins he will be the 1st candidate to defeat 2 nominees in the same yr ! 1st he destroyed the 1st dem nominees candidacy in the debate and he may defeat the 2nd dem candidate in the election coming up ! HISTORIC !

 

[yidnar]

Far from it.

The trend favors Harris. Trump needs a game changer.

he has several .. the swing states ! Trump is polling much better than he did in 2020 and believe it or not 2016 ! will you be calling for the abolishment of the electoral college like the rest of your comrades will if he wins ??

 

[candycorn]

he has several .. the swing states ! Trump is polling much better than he did in 2020 and believe it or not 2016 ! will you be calling for the abolishment of the electoral college like the rest of your comrades will if he wins ??

I’ve never called for any such abolition.

Are you going to promise to leave the board (again) if your blob loses (again)?

 

[yidnar]

I’ve never called for any such abolition.

Are you going to promise to leave the board (again) if your blob loses (again)?

lol ! I left for a month .. didn't do the full yr I admit it ! and you will be calling for the end of the electoral college .. you are driven by emotion not reason ...and I know I've hit a nerve when you bring up a wager made yrs ago ..again ! but no ! I will not leave ..why would I deprive myself the pleasure of triggering insane gender confused leftist morons with the common sense of a slug at the bottom of a salt bucket ..

 

[candycorn]

lol ! I left for a month .. didn't do the full yr I admit it !

So you’re basically a dishonest piece of shit.

and you will be calling for the end of the electoral college .. you are driven by emotion not reason ...

I’ve never called for the abolution of the electoral college.

That being said, I have applied reason to the electoral college and said that the President Elect needs to win both the majority of the electoral college as well as a plurality of the popular votes. Its the only elected office in the nation where the total number of constituents of the office holder do not get to weigh in on who wins the election. That should change. I also think it’s criminally insane that we have an even number of electors seeing as how nearly every election. The last time a 3rd party got any electoral votes was 1968 (one of 3 times in the 1900’s where a 3rd party got any EVs ). Its long past time to make it an odd number just to avoid a tie.

But if the question is the have EITHER the electoral college as it is or a straight popular vote decide the president elect...I’ll stick with the electoral college as it is; win or lose. And I think we could all agree that a straight popular vote of the entire nation would radically benefit the Democratic Party at this juncture in history. So feel free to shove your argument all the way up your cavernous ass.

 

[Care4all]

One thing is for CERTAIN, this election....due to it being razor thin close,

it is going to take a long time to get a projected winner....in the states running at this 50/50 +/-4%....

Shoot, some states might have to wait the week for the military overseas vote to arrive and be counted, to get a winner!

If there ever was an election where every single vote matters, this could be it!

Don't expect an election day winner prediction....that just ain't gonna happen, imo!!!

 

[JohnDB]

Things are looking dismal for Harris.

Here are early voting results for Virginia....not a swing state. Usually a very Democrat Party state like California or Oregon or Washington.



Now notice that most of the early voters by age groups is the over 50 crowd. (Same way in every state)
But more importantly....the numbers are Way WAY off from expected norms. Sure they are down 30% from 2020....but the 41% of GOP votes is astounding. It should never rise above 35%. Hasn't ever gotten this big a percentage before. Especially since nobody has bothered to campaign there in person. Neither Trump or Harris have had a rally or fundraiser there. But Trump is killing it with the percentage.

And by some other stats polled in this election....some of those Democrat voters are likely voting for Trump too.

This is unprecedented. And a very bad omen for Harris.

 

[Care4all]

Things are looking dismal for Harris.

Here are early voting results for Virginia....not a swing state. Usually a very Democrat Party state like California or Oregon or Washington.



Now notice that most of the early voters by age groups is the over 50 crowd. (Same way in every state)
But more importantly....the numbers are Way WAY off from expected norms. Sure they are down 30% from 2020....but the 41% of GOP votes is astounding. It should never rise above 35%. Hasn't ever gotten this big a percentage before. Especially since nobody has bothered to campaign there in person. Neither Trump or Harris have had a rally or fundraiser there. But Trump is killing it with the percentage.

And by some other stats polled in this election....some of those Democrat voters are likely voting for Trump too.

This is unprecedented. And a very bad omen for Harris.

Repubs are on a major campaign to get early and absentee votes! My husband is a Republican and a likely voter (never missed an election) so we get bombarded with phone calls from republican campaigns...last week I got (MEANT for the hubby) two different robo calls from the Trump campaign URGING me not to wait till election day, it was very important to go out and vote early and send your absentee ballot in early!!

I thought, HOLY TOLEDO!!!! What was THAT all about?? Why is Trump begging for early votes?

I think THAT is why the repubs are at 40% vs the norm of 35%....all the Robo calls sent out, urging to vote early....

 

[Care4all]

Things are looking dismal for Harris.

Here are early voting results for Virginia....not a swing state. Usually a very Democrat Party state like California or Oregon or Washington.



Now notice that most of the early voters by age groups is the over 50 crowd. (Same way in every state)
But more importantly....the numbers are Way WAY off from expected norms. Sure they are down 30% from 2020....but the 41% of GOP votes is astounding. It should never rise above 35%. Hasn't ever gotten this big a percentage before. Especially since nobody has bothered to campaign there in person. Neither Trump or Harris have had a rally or fundraiser there. But Trump is killing it with the percentage.

And by some other stats polled in this election....some of those Democrat voters are likely voting for Trump too.

This is unprecedented. And a very bad omen for Harris.

Also, look at the women vote vs men. . 55% v 45%.... (oops) edit!

That, looks good for Harris, not Trump.

 

[JohnDB]

Repubs are on a major campaign to get early and absentee votes! My husband is a Republican and a likely voter (never missed an election) so we get bombarded with phone calls from republican campaigns...last week I got (MEANT for the hubby) two different robo calls from the Trump campaign URGING me not to wait till election day, it was very important to go out and vote early and send your absentee ballot in early!!

I thought, HOLY TOLEDO!!!! What was THAT all about?? Why is Trump begging for early votes?

I think THAT is why the repubs are at 40% vs the norm of 35%....all the Robo calls sent out, urging to vote early....

Part of the "get out the vote" campaign. It's a strategy.
Votes by mail are notoriously not counted. Something not filled out correctly will get your vote eliminated. So traditionally Republicans vote at the polling station. (Most likely to get counted)

So far the 50+ aged votes make up 72-80% of early voting totals. Very seldom do they change parties. Virginia GOP party officials say they have had extra drives to get early voting. Which can help...but...it won't do that much. This is unprecedented. 43% is stuff of first week totals. Not at this point. (Week 3 or 4 with many more stations opened this week )

 

[JohnDB]

Also, look at the women vote vs men. 53% v 41%....

That, looks good for Harris, not Trump.

Virginia is a Democrat state....deep blue.

Republicans should only have 25% at this point.

 

[frigidweirdo]

The polling errors before the 2016 election were stunning. So much so that the "lock" that Hillary had on the election all went up in smoke and tears on election night. The pollsters were destroyed on their crap numbers and they vowed to do better in 2020. Well guess what happened? The 2020 polling errors were EVEN WORSE overstating Biden's edge by nearly 4 percent. If the pollsters didn't learn from their mistakes in 2020 why does anyone think they will be better in 2024? Don't believe the polling numbers.

Which polls were bad in 2020? Rasmussen, as always, is bad... who else?

 

[JoeB131]

Those were the popular vote percentages. The polling errors were in the swing states that decided the election by less than 50,000 votes. California and New York always give Democrats an automatic bump in popular vote.

And everyone knew the swing states would be close.

Because we still use this bizarre system created by slave rapists who shit in chamber pots.