Paradoxical Earth.. Complex responses often misinterpreted...

[Billy_Bob]

Europe is in for a big surprise this winter. Pattern shifts are going to cool things off substantially and the MET office has missed their predictions again.

Gonna need Daddy Putin's pipe line!
Maybe they should stop pissing him off.

Jo

The weather patter change is global... And just as I predicted in the first few posts of this thread, as the mid latitudes cooled, once thermal equilibrium was almost reached, the polar jets would pull back and the cooling would set in in earnest.

Surprising Summer Chill Baffles Global Warming Alarmists

Its begun and its in both hemispheres..

That makes perfect sense when you consider the Dynamics of heat transfer.
The motion of the fluid is always directly related to the total temperature differential.
The temperature differential becomes the driver and in effect when you remove or decrease the differential motion slows down considerably or even stops.

If this is the case then it follows that within the next decade or so we should see a rapid increase of polar ice both North and South.

Correct...

And this basic physics concept is lost on every alarmist I know. This also means there will be some eddies (small areas of high pressure) that will remain and cause higher than normal temps in small regions. Exactly what we see today in Paris and other small regions of Europe. As I was watching the news today I noticed they were pin pointing these small regions as the "Hottest the earth has ever seen" and I just shook my head that they would lie like this knowing the MEWP and the RWP were both significantly warmer. They are truly desperate to get control of people.

Turns out that the hottest day eval measured in paris came from a thermometer next to a concrete drain and a steel fence next to an asphalt highway......they really know how to place those stations to get the most pristine temperatures...the surface record is so completely screwed up as to be completely worthless..the only value it has is to support the alarmist narrative. The only temperature gathering network on earth in which every station is properly placed shows no warming and it hasn't for more than a decade.

Thank You, I hadn't had the time to go research the hot spot to see what factors were affecting it. This would get engine heat and if the conditions were right, a small eddie could encapsulate heat in this location. Given the traffic congestion, asphalt, concrete, etc it would not surprise me that the temp was 2-3 deg C higher than actual surroundings. Another epic fail by alarmists who thought we wouldn't check it out..

 

[Billy_Bob]

Time to update the thread...

The polar regions are now enlarging due to the loss of heat in earths oceans. The air drag across the poles is now waning and rapid cooling is now the order of the day. This will push major storms farther south and the cooler atmosphere will increase the evaporation above earths oceans.

This winter is going to be a wild ride for the Northern Hemisphere.. Buckle up Boys, I hope you brought your long johns...

 

[mamooth]

^^^^
Kook babbling. As usually, what Billy claims is the exact opposite of reality.

Check this link. Note how the Arctic ocean temperature anomaly is way high over most of the Arctic. Arctic air temp anomaly is way high. It's very warm up there, which accounts for the 2nd lowest sea ice minimum.

Climate Reanalyzer

Climate Reanalyzer

 

[SSDD]

^^^^
Kook babbling. As usually, what Billy claims is the exact opposite of reality.

Check this link. Note how the Arctic ocean temperature anomaly is way high over most of the Arctic. Arctic air temp anomaly is way high. It's very warm up there, which accounts for the 2nd lowest sea ice minimum.

Climate Reanalyzer

Climate Reanalyzer

Projecting again hairball....all anyone needs to do is listen to what you blame others of in order to know what the left is up to.

 

[Billy_Bob]

^^^^
Kook babbling. As usually, what Billy claims is the exact opposite of reality.

Check this link. Note how the Arctic ocean temperature anomaly is way high over most of the Arctic. Arctic air temp anomaly is way high. It's very warm up there, which accounts for the 2nd lowest sea ice minimum.

Climate Reanalyzer

Climate Reanalyzer

Projecting again hairball....all anyone needs to do is listen to what you blame others of in order to know what the left is up to.

The hairball is unaware that ocean surface temps are well below freezing and below average. He is using the University Of Maine's Climate Re-analyzer (a computer program-model designed to add temperatures where they do not exist and is notoriously flawed as no reputable scientist will even use it for anything).

The very low ambient air temps are sucking the heat from the oceans so quickly that they are freezing to a depth of over 7 feet in as little as two weeks.

 

[Billy_Bob]

One more update on our paradoxical earth...

La Niña is taking a third deep dip. Ocean temps to 700 feet are cooling rapidly. Polar jets remain strong due to the upper atmosphere cooling, causing wide swinging paths into the mid latitudes. A third dip means things will get very cold this fall in the northern hemisphere.

This will also make our hurricane season less severe due to mid atmospheric wind shear and lack of energy from the ocean surfaces.

 

[mamooth]

Thread summary:

Billy has been humiliating himself here for many years.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Paradoxical Earth.. Complex responses often misinterpreted.

As I watch many claim global warming for the current weather events, it appears it is time for some sanity and a reality check. The earth has always been a paradoxical presentation and its high time people were taught that what they see is in far to short a time span for any realistic determination to be made about what our climate is doing.

When the sun is active the flows from the sun, like wind, push against our atmosphere. As the earth rotates this pressure pushes atmosphere to the poles increasing the mass of the atmosphere above them. The NASA photo below shows how solar wind pushes against the magnetosphere and against our atmosphere.

View attachment 172129

When the wind reduces so do the pressures against our atmosphere. If you spin a partially filled balloon and apply a wind pressure against it the center will flatten and the ends round. This is what happens to earths atmosphere.

When there is high pressures against our atmosphere from the sun the depth of atmosphere above the equator decreases and above the poles increase.

View attachment 172131

This allows the polar jet to reside high in latitudes and warming of the equator will push towards the polls keeping the polar jet tightly constrained to the poles. This is a warming globe.

With cooling and low solar influence things are very different. With low pressures (as we have today) against the magnetosphere and atmosphere, the mass of the atmosphere is flung out due to earths rotation, allowing the atmosphere near the poles to be drawn to the equator.

View attachment 172132

The draw down of atmosphere causes the polar Cells to thin and widen pulling the polar jet to mid latitudes. This results in a paradoxical warming of the arctic regions and massive cooling of the mid latitudes. The thin atmosphere mass above the poles allows heat escape to accelerate.

What we see today is a natural and normal presentation of the earth entering a cooling phase. With Solar influence now slated to be very low for the next 30-60 years our cooling is just beginning.

As we near the new thermal equilibrium of the earths new energy input/output levels, the zones will return to what we have seen as normal over recent years. When that happens, the poles will freeze over rapidly and glaciation will resume. Many Northern Hemisphere glaciers have already begun to increase in size. The ice mass on Greenland has tripled in just three years.

This is just the beginning..

LOL Denier Boy!

Our AGW Consensus Mongers have already said the Sun has no impact whatsoever on something as complex as Earth's climate; it's all CO2. CO2 molecules the turtles supporting Earth in space

/sarcasm

 

[Sunsettommy]

Thread summary:

Billy has been humiliating himself here for many years.

Oh the IRONY!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Yannow, even if the temperature difference between 100% CO2 was 200F, at 120PPM that would only yield .02F of "excess heat" No wonder, they never want to show us any experiments!

 

[Billy_Bob]

Yannow, even if the temperature difference between 100% CO2 was 200F, at 120PPM that would only yield .02F of "excess heat" No wonder, they never want to show us any experiments!

Ya think? LOL

That is why there can never be a "runaway" earth..

 

[Billy_Bob]

Time to update the thread once again...

A new post on Jonova cites a new paper (Hat Tip- Sunsettommy) that describes this theory in detail.
Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis: New support for the effect of solar activity on lower atmospheric circulation | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com)

This graph from that paper by Svetlana Veretenenko goes into great details on the energy flow process and how it is affected by solar output:

This energy flow diagram identifies the solar input changes and how everything reacts to that change due to the change in THERMAL GRADIENT.

In a warming world the polar jets will become tightly constrained and cold will be tightly kept locally until the warming and the heat retention of the atmosphere above the poles eventually warms it. Were nowhere near this eventuality. Paradoxical presentation of a cold and constrained arctic in a warming world.

In our currently cooling world, the wide and powerful polar jets cool the mid-latitudes while the heat is released above the pole from the reduced mass of the atmosphere and the heat being widely spread out, high in the reduced atmosphere. Again, a paradoxical presentation of a warming arctic in a cooling world.


In both a cooling world and a warming world, when we reach near equilibrium the polar jet will expand to it median path or retract to its median path. Right now, were nowhere near the median path.


None of these processes fit in many people's minds because they do not know how the system works or why. Were just getting a good scratch on the surface. This is a very simplified explanation but one that is desperately needed to teach people that any man caused warming is extremely exaggerated.

 

[Billy_Bob]

More and more scientists are now seeing they have missed the boat entirely in the CAGW theory. The dam has collapsed under its own weight of pseudoscience and political driven BS. More and more on what we saw back in 2017 is being proven out in current research.

 

[Crick]

More and more scientists are now seeing they have missed the boat entirely in the CAGW theory. The dam has collapsed under its own weight of pseudoscience and political driven BS. More and more on what we saw back in 2017 is being proven out in current research.

Where and how are these scientists letting you know this Billy Boy?

 

[Billy_Bob]

Where and how are these scientists letting you know this Billy Boy?

LOL... If you were a scientist and active in real scientific circles you would know. As you are not, it is very likely you just want to bloviate your ignorance.

Back to topic, which is not me.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Any action that slows energy out will cause warming and any action that slows energy in will cause cooling.

The earth's atmosphere thinning above the equator will allow more energy to reach the surface, The increasing atmosphere above the poles will reduce the flow of outgoing energy. Basic physics.

Conversely, low solar output allows the atmosphere to be flung out at the equator causing less heat to be taken up by the surface. The atmosphere above the pole thins, make energy out increase. Again, basic physics.

Now we have the transport systems response to that change in thermal gradient.

The new paper shows why man's influence is not having the affect they said it has in the CAGW hypothesis. The days of the CAGW theory remaining even remotely valid are gone.

This paper shows the Climate sensitivity number to be less than a 1 to 1 relationship. Empirical evidence shows we are at a 0.6-0.8 to 1.0 deg C number. I believe we are now nearing the truth about our climate relationship in CO2 vs our atmosphere.

 

[Crick]

LOL... If you were a scientist and active in real scientific circles you would know. As you are not, it is very likely you just want to bloviate your ignorance.

Back to topic, which is not me.

Well, I didn't realize it was a requirement to be an active scientist to participate here. That must be a new rule. And you know what I'd say to such an assertion coming from you, so I won't bother. But, let's try this again. Where would I, a humble layman, go to hear about all these scientists changing their mind about AGW?

 

[Billy_Bob]

Well, I didn't realize it was a requirement to be an active scientist to participate here. That must be a new rule. And you know what I'd say to such an assertion coming from you, so I won't bother. But, let's try this again. Where would I, a humble layman, go to hear about all these scientists changing their mind about AGW?

I just anticipated the bloviation that was to come. Again, this is about the science, not any one person. This particular paper is being talked about on Judith Curry's site and on JoNova..

 

[mamooth]

If these scientists are so good, why do all of their predictions fail so completely every time? You know, just like all of Billy's predictions.

How that's imminent strong cooling doing these days, Billy? You know, what you've been predicting nonstop for the past 10 years.

 

[Crick]

I just anticipated the bloviation that was to come. Again, this is about the science, not any one person. This particular paper is being talked about on Judith Curry's site and on JoNova..

I wasn't asking about the paper on Curry's site. I was asking about your comment "More and more scientists are now seeing they have missed the boat entirely in the CAGW theory.". Where have you learned that this is the case?