Only 6 days left, here is where Trump stands in the race:

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U2Edge

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REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 11/03/2020, ELECTION DAY:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 51.2% (+7.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.0%


WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 51.0% (+6.7% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.3%

MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 50.0% (+4.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.8%

PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 48.7% (+1.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 47.5%

NEVADA:
BIDEN: 48.7% (+2.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 46.3%

ARIZONA:
BIDEN: 47.9% (+0.9% over Trump)
TRUMP: 47.0%




WHERE THE 2016 RACE WAS AT THIS POINT, ELECTON DAY 2016:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:

CLINTON: +3.3% over Trump

WISCONSIN:
CLINTON: 46.8% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 40.3%

MICHIGAN:
CLINTON: 45.4% (+3.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 42.0%

PENNSYLVANIA:
CLINTON: 46.2% (+1.9% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.3%

NEVADA:
TRUMP: 45.8% (+0.8% over Clinton)
CLINTON: 45.0%

ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 46.3% (+4.0% over Clinton)
CLINTON: 42.3%


ELECTION DAY, everything looking solid for Biden, some tightening here and there. The only real concerning area for BIDEN is PENNSYLVANIA where the margin has tighten to a narrow 1.2%. Biden is still ahead, but this is not where he wanted to be on election day. Makes Pennsylvania seem like a TOSS UP now. BIDEN spent too much time campaigning in the Sun Belt where he does not actually need a win. He should have focused more on Pennsylvania. BIDEN went from a 4.3% lead on November 1, 2020 in Pennsylvania, down to a 1.2% lead on November 3, 2020. That is a big contraction in his lead in just 48 hours. Still, overall Biden is in good shape for victory today in most of these key states.
 
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U2Edge

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In what is the last Real Clear Politics average of polls before we see actual election results we have the following in Texas and Pennsylvania:

In Pennsylvania, BIDEN is ahead by a margin of 1.2%.

In Texas, TRUMP is ahead by a margin of 1.3%.

Amazing that Texas has turned into just as much a battleground state as Pennsylvania!
 

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In what is the last Real Clear Politics average of polls before we see actual election results we have the following in Texas and Pennsylvania:

In Pennsylvania, BIDEN is ahead by a margin of 1.2%.

In Texas, TRUMP is ahead by a margin of 1.3%.

Amazing that Texas has turned into just as much a battleground state as Pennsylvania!
What's really amazing is that the actual results are coming in by the tens of millions and bullshit pollsters are still reeling idiots in.
 

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In what is the last Real Clear Politics average of polls before we see actual election results we have the following in Texas and Pennsylvania:

In Pennsylvania, BIDEN is ahead by a margin of 1.2%.

In Texas, TRUMP is ahead by a margin of 1.3%.

Amazing that Texas has turned into just as much a battleground state as Pennsylvania!
Thought you might enjoy this. As the returns come in, and states are called for Biden or Trump, assign them, and watch the odds of victory update.

For example: Starting with the Eastern Time Zone.
Nate starts with Trump having 10% odds but, if he wins Ohio, that jumps to 19%. That would also make him favored to win GA and NC, and adding those jumps him to 38% chance of victory and makes him the favorite for FL. Adding FL jumps him to 52% chance of victory.

TX should be in shortly thereafter and adding that to Trump puts him a 53% and makes him favored in AZ, if Trump wins AZ he's at 63% chance of victory and now favored in NV. Adding NV puts him at 80% and favored in PA. Adding PA puts him at greater than 99% chance of victory.


Judging by the link title, it looks like ABCNEWS is using it too.

I've enjoyed your data based posts and I have my hopes up for a clear resolution that is broadly accepted by the Nation.

Take care,
Zorro
 

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In what is the last Real Clear Politics average of polls before we see actual election results we have the following in Texas and Pennsylvania:

In Pennsylvania, BIDEN is ahead by a margin of 1.2%.

In Texas, TRUMP is ahead by a margin of 1.3%.

Amazing that Texas has turned into just as much a battleground state as Pennsylvania!
Trump beat the polls in PA by 2.6%
Trump beat the polls in FL by 1.0 and the RCP only has SloJoe up by 0.9
Trump beat the polls in NC by 2.7% and the RCP already has Trump up by 0.2
Trump beat the the polls in MI by 7.2% and RCP only has SloJoe up by 6.7

According to Nate Silver's Dohicky here, if I give those 4 states to Trump, Trump has a greater than 99% odds of winning this thing.

 

Daryl Hunt

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In what is the last Real Clear Politics average of polls before we see actual election results we have the following in Texas and Pennsylvania:

In Pennsylvania, BIDEN is ahead by a margin of 1.2%.

In Texas, TRUMP is ahead by a margin of 1.3%.

Amazing that Texas has turned into just as much a battleground state as Pennsylvania!
Trump beat the polls in PA by 2.6%
Trump beat the polls in FL by 1.0 and the RCP only has SloJoe up by 0.9
Trump beat the polls in NC by 2.7% and the RCP already has Trump up by 0.2
Trump beat the the polls in MI by 7.2% and RCP only has SloJoe up by 6.7

According to Nate Silver's Dohicky here, if I give those 4 states to Trump, Trump has a greater than 99% odds of winning this thing.

Rump hasn't beaten anything. You are at least 24 hours premature. Put the baby back in the incubator.
 

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In what is the last Real Clear Politics average of polls before we see actual election results we have the following in Texas and Pennsylvania:

In Pennsylvania, BIDEN is ahead by a margin of 1.2%.

In Texas, TRUMP is ahead by a margin of 1.3%.

Amazing that Texas has turned into just as much a battleground state as Pennsylvania!
That these numbers are so close reflect poorly on the American people; that far too many are so frightened, ignorant, and hateful as to support Trump.

There was a time in America not long ago when the likes of Trump would have lost in all 50 states.
 

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In what is the last Real Clear Politics average of polls before we see actual election results we have the following in Texas and Pennsylvania:

In Pennsylvania, BIDEN is ahead by a margin of 1.2%.

In Texas, TRUMP is ahead by a margin of 1.3%.

Amazing that Texas has turned into just as much a battleground state as Pennsylvania!
That these numbers are so close reflect poorly on the American people; that far too many are so frightened, ignorant, and hateful as to support Trump.

There was a time in America not long ago when the likes of Trump would have lost in all 50 states.
Look whose sitting in judgement....again.

Go fuck yourself.

There was a time when we'd elect a black man president because he'd be a good president....not just because he was black.
 

Zorro!

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In what is the last Real Clear Politics average of polls before we see actual election results we have the following in Texas and Pennsylvania:

In Pennsylvania, BIDEN is ahead by a margin of 1.2%.

In Texas, TRUMP is ahead by a margin of 1.3%.

Amazing that Texas has turned into just as much a battleground state as Pennsylvania!
That these numbers are so close reflect poorly on the American people; that far too many are so frightened, ignorant, and hateful as to support Trump...
Be honest, doesn't your air of moral superiority even make you sick?
... There was a time in America not long ago when the likes of Trump would have lost in all 50 states.
It's generally Democrats that manage to lose nearly every state. For the GOP that has only happened once and that was when a grieving nation came out to support JFK's successor.

It was last measure of devotion from the Electorate to our President who was taken from us far too soon,
 
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U2Edge

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Well, what an interesting 21 hours it has been since the first state polls closed at 7:00 PM last night. Turns out, that in terms of predicting the winner in each state, REAL CLEAR POLITICS was more right this time than in 2016. In 2016, REAL CLEAR POLITICS correctly predicted the winner in 46 out of 50 states. In 2020 it appears that REAL CLEAR POLITICS was right in 49 out of 50 states assuming Pennsylvania eventually goes for Biden. The only state it appears that REAL CLEAR POLITICS failed to pick the winner was Florida, but it only had Biden up by 0.9% which was within the margin of error, the candidates within 3% of each other. So its not really a shock to see Florida go for Trump instead of Biden given that RCP predicting it was going to be close.

Now some of the bad news in RCP predictions to do with the margin of victory four states.
1. Wisconsin once again was very close, but RCP predicted a BIDEN victory by 6.7%. Way off, but at least they correctly predicted the winner this time.
2. Michigan once again was very close, but RCP predicted a BIDEN victory by 4.2%. Not as way off as Wisconsin, but at least they correctly predicted the winner this time.
3. Texas was supposed to be close with RCP predicting a TRUMP victory by 1.2%. Instead, TRUMP won Texas by 5.9%. Texas was never in play or close.
4. In Florida, RCP predicted a BIDEN victory by 0.9%, but instead it was a TRUMP victory by 3.4%. This is nearly triple the margin of victory that Trump had in 2016!

The RCP prediction for the Electoral College was:
BIDEN: 319
TRUMP: 219

Instead because Florida went for Trump instead of Biden, were likely to see this:
BIDEN: 290
TRUMP: 248

OR if Pennsylvania goes for TRUMP
BIDEN: 270
TRUMP: 268

So again, a better Job by RCP this time around the only real failure being Florida although it predicted it as a TOSS UP, given BIDEN only a slight edge.

RCP once again correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote, BIDEN, but was way off on the margin of victory. RCP's prediction was:
BIDEN: 51.2% (7.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.0%

actual results:
BIDEN: 50.3% (2.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 48.1%

So the average of the polling by RCP did a pretty good job this time.

My final prediction of 413 electoral votes for BIDEN was based on the idea of Biden victories in Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. The average of the polls suggested this was within the realm of possibility. Georgia and North Carolina proved to be close. Texas was not close, and Florida was not really close either.

PENNSYLVANIA: Not sure how it will go and TRUMP has a 5.3% lead at this time. But only 84% of the vote is in. If BIDEN can win 65% of the remaining vote still out there, he can win Pennsylvania. But BIDEN does not need Pennsylvania. He has already won Wisconsin and Michigan, and just needs to maintain his leads in Nevada and Arizona. It looks more likely than ever now that BIDEN will be the next President.

BIDEN is likely to be the next President, yet how many people here claimed BIDEN would not even be the nominee for the Democratic Party. The fact is, many of you underestimated BIDEN for various reasons. His age, his son, his affection for people, false allegations of corruption etc.
 

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The black votes supporting Trump have doubled...
The Hispanic votes fro Trump have doubled..
Middle class workers have shifted to Trump by 8 points in the last week nation wide...

All things the RCP doesn't measure.... Who ya gonna Believe..????
REAL CLEAR POLITICS correctly predicted the winner in 46 out of 50 states in 2016.
REAL CLEAR POLITICS correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in 2016. It predicted Clinton would win the popular vote by 3.1% points and she won by 2.1% points.

So the RCP is very accurate.
REAL CLEAR POLITICS correctly predicted the winner in 46 out of 50 states in 2016.
REAL CLEAR POLITICS correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in 2016. It predicted Clinton would win the popular vote by 3.1% points and she won by 2.1% points.
Sounds like you're trying to convince yourself dude. Here's my prediction: Trump crushes, betas cry & the truth about Deep State corruption comes out. Gonna be glorious! You should reserve a spot in your favorite safe space now before it's too late. :saythat:
SEE YOU HERE NEXT WEEK! ITS GOING TO BE FUN!
You are quite the fan of RCP.

1604972819930.png


Biden 259 Trump 214

Count EVERY LEGAL VOTE!


Real Clear Politics on Monday night pulled their call for Joe Biden in Pennsylvania which means Biden isn’t even pretend president-elect anymore.
 

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