Official CDC projections for COVID -- Updated regularly..

[Bo Didleysquat]

Starting to see possible "disinformation" on COVID numbers.. To my knowledge, ALL physician, medical statistics on epidemics are reported THRU the CDC... So whether that information is FULLY correct, does not matter as much as information that "suddenly appears" from some random sites that might be linked to other countries efforts to "quiet us down" or "rile us up"...

Apologies to anyone that posted this link already.. Saw it yesterday and the gist is --- Most states and the country are gonna PEAK Mid-April... With "out of the wood" being maybe mid May... When you READ the graphs, realized they are MODELS.. So the solid lines are the BEST EXPECTATIONS... The color shaded areas are measures of UNCERTAINTY...

Like for the Entire US graph --- the uncertainties run kinda high because of not knowing how many OTHER major population areas will be hit -- etc... But if you drill down to "mild states" -- the timeframe is the same, but the uncertainty is almost negligible...

Here's the site -- it's an ORG associated with CDC.. Stay well and don't panic.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

Thanks for the thread.
It just doesn’t add up. We are half way up the curve right now. Grand total in the hospital in the entire state of Virginia right now - 165. It’s not jiving.
View attachment 317519

But of course, it is a hoax after all. Pay no attention.


The Justice Department has quietly asked Congress for the ability to ask chief judges to detain people indefinitely without trial during emergencies — part of a push for new powers that comes as the novel coronavirus spreads throughout the United States.

DOJ seeks new emergency powers amid coronavirus pandemic

One of the requests to Congress would allow the department to petition a judge to indefinitely detain someone during an emergency.

www.politico.com

Although it appears someone up the food chain somewhere is nervous. At least enough to step even harder on your habeas corpus than even Obama did. Someone had better tell Randy Paul. Oh, and these powers would not be limited to this event. You know. Any "emergency" someone in the aristocracy decides is one would suffice going forward. So if that holds, there's your new reality, your getting back to normal post this fake pandemic left while we watched everything else go by that led us here. Might as well relax and enjoy the ride, it's a historical moment for the empire. Any inflection point in our national death rate curve yet?

 

[flacaltenn]

Starting to see possible "disinformation" on COVID numbers.. To my knowledge, ALL physician, medical statistics on epidemics are reported THRU the CDC... So whether that information is FULLY correct, does not matter as much as information that "suddenly appears" from some random sites that might be linked to other countries efforts to "quiet us down" or "rile us up"...

Apologies to anyone that posted this link already.. Saw it yesterday and the gist is --- Most states and the country are gonna PEAK Mid-April... With "out of the wood" being maybe mid May... When you READ the graphs, realized they are MODELS.. So the solid lines are the BEST EXPECTATIONS... The color shaded areas are measures of UNCERTAINTY...

Like for the Entire US graph --- the uncertainties run kinda high because of not knowing how many OTHER major population areas will be hit -- etc... But if you drill down to "mild states" -- the timeframe is the same, but the uncertainty is almost negligible...

Here's the site -- it's an ORG associated with CDC.. Stay well and don't panic.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

Thanks for the thread.
It just doesn’t add up. We are half way up the curve right now. Grand total in the hospital in the entire state of Virginia right now - 165. It’s not jiving.
View attachment 317519

But of course, it is a hoax after all. Pay no attention.


The Justice Department has quietly asked Congress for the ability to ask chief judges to detain people indefinitely without trial during emergencies — part of a push for new powers that comes as the novel coronavirus spreads throughout the United States.

DOJ seeks new emergency powers amid coronavirus pandemic

One of the requests to Congress would allow the department to petition a judge to indefinitely detain someone during an emergency.

www.politico.com

Although it appears someone up the food chain somewhere is nervous. At least enough to step even harder on your habeas corpus than even Obama did. Someone had better tell Randy Paul. Oh, and these powers would not be limited to this event. You know. Any "emergency" someone in the aristocracy decides is one would suffice going forward. So if that holds, there's your new reality, your getting back to normal post this fake pandemic left while we watched everything else go by that led us here. Might as well relax and enjoy the ride, it's a historical moment for the empire. Any inflection point in our national death rate curve yet?

Those are all valid concerns.. Maybe folks will do more to RETAIN their Civil Liberties after a dose of "the Government is here to HELP you"...

BUT

If the media and the political wars in this country PUSH folks over the edge, we MAY have to resort to some tyrannical methods to keep the carnage down..

Here's the truth.. If it COMES to that -- the fault won't be ALL with Govt.. It will be with the MEDIA, the "2 party feuds" and a large fraction of the people themselves...

 

[james bond]

Starting to see possible "disinformation" on COVID numbers.. To my knowledge, ALL physician, medical statistics on epidemics are reported THRU the CDC... So whether that information is FULLY correct, does not matter as much as information that "suddenly appears" from some random sites that might be linked to other countries efforts to "quiet us down" or "rile us up"...

Apologies to anyone that posted this link already.. Saw it yesterday and the gist is --- Most states and the country are gonna PEAK Mid-April... With "out of the wood" being maybe mid May... When you READ the graphs, realized they are MODELS.. So the solid lines are the BEST EXPECTATIONS... The color shaded areas are measures of UNCERTAINTY...

Like for the Entire US graph --- the uncertainties run kinda high because of not knowing how many OTHER major population areas will be hit -- etc... But if you drill down to "mild states" -- the timeframe is the same, but the uncertainty is almost negligible...

Here's the site -- it's an ORG associated with CDC.. Stay well and don't panic.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

Thanks for the thread.
It just doesn’t add up. We are half way up the curve right now. Grand total in the hospital in the entire state of Virginia right now - 165. It’s not jiving.
View attachment 317519

You knew we were trying to flatten the curve, but it seems that the curve will flatten us first. COVID-19 has just overwhelmed us. I hate to call this guy in the vid Doctor Doom, but I think he's speaking the unvarnished truth. It's painful and it's horrible. The best attitude is to take it seriously and quarantine and sanitize. I will be wearing a face mask now and maybe goggles (gun range glasses) when I go out. I have an underlying condition which I didn't know was an underlying condition before.

 

[Muhammed]

Starting to see possible "disinformation" on COVID numbers.. To my knowledge, ALL physician, medical statistics on epidemics are reported THRU the CDC... So whether that information is FULLY correct, does not matter as much as information that "suddenly appears" from some random sites that might be linked to other countries efforts to "quiet us down" or "rile us up"...

Apologies to anyone that posted this link already.. Saw it yesterday and the gist is --- Most states and the country are gonna PEAK Mid-April... With "out of the wood" being maybe mid May... When you READ the graphs, realized they are MODELS.. So the solid lines are the BEST EXPECTATIONS... The color shaded areas are measures of UNCERTAINTY...

Like for the Entire US graph --- the uncertainties run kinda high because of not knowing how many OTHER major population areas will be hit -- etc... But if you drill down to "mild states" -- the timeframe is the same, but the uncertainty is almost negligible...

Here's the site -- it's an ORG associated with CDC.. Stay well and don't panic.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

Thanks for the thread.
It just doesn’t add up. We are half way up the curve right now. Grand total in the hospital in the entire state of Virginia right now - 165. It’s not jiving.
View attachment 317519

But of course, it is a hoax after all. Pay no attention.


The Justice Department has quietly asked Congress for the ability to ask chief judges to detain people indefinitely without trial during emergencies — part of a push for new powers that comes as the novel coronavirus spreads throughout the United States.

DOJ seeks new emergency powers amid coronavirus pandemic

One of the requests to Congress would allow the department to petition a judge to indefinitely detain someone during an emergency.

www.politico.com

Although it appears someone up the food chain somewhere is nervous. At least enough to step even harder on your habeas corpus than even Obama did. Someone had better tell Randy Paul. Oh, and these powers would not be limited to this event. You know. Any "emergency" someone in the aristocracy decides is one would suffice going forward. So if that holds, there's your new reality, your getting back to normal post this fake pandemic left while we watched everything else go by that led us here. Might as well relax and enjoy the ride, it's a historical moment for the empire. Any inflection point in our national death rate curve yet?

Those are all valid concerns.. Maybe folks will do more to RETAIN their Civil Liberties after a dose of "the Government is here to HELP you"...

BUT

If the media and the political wars in this country PUSH folks over the edge, we MAY have to resort to some tyrannical methods to keep the carnage down..

Here's the truth.. If it COMES to that -- the fault won't be ALL with Govt.. It will be with the MEDIA, the "2 party feuds" and a large fraction of the people themselves...

G
And that is just part of prepping. You identify the enemies in your locality. It's public record. You do not need to be some insider to get their names and addresses. Run predictives on them. If the Democrats try to flee, what is their likely route of egress?

They are so fucked.

 

[Weatherman2020]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

 

[james bond]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

You can be our Doctor Doom.

 

[Olde Europe]

Starting to see possible "disinformation" on COVID numbers.. To my knowledge, ALL physician, medical statistics on epidemics are reported THRU the CDC... So whether that information is FULLY correct, does not matter as much as information that "suddenly appears" from some random sites that might be linked to other countries efforts to "quiet us down" or "rile us up"...

Apologies to anyone that posted this link already.. Saw it yesterday and the gist is --- Most states and the country are gonna PEAK Mid-April... With "out of the wood" being maybe mid May... When you READ the graphs, realized they are MODELS.. So the solid lines are the BEST EXPECTATIONS... The color shaded areas are measures of UNCERTAINTY...

Like for the Entire US graph --- the uncertainties run kinda high because of not knowing how many OTHER major population areas will be hit -- etc... But if you drill down to "mild states" -- the timeframe is the same, but the uncertainty is almost negligible...

Here's the site -- it's an ORG associated with CDC.. Stay well and don't panic.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

As far as I have seen (roughly half the States), the uncertainty range in all of them is enormous. The reason for that is, most likely, because of a severe lack of testing, no one has the first clue as to the number of infected anywhere. This applies to both so-called "mild states" and New York.

Also:

Conclusions and Relevance

In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.​

Let me emphasize mitigation maintained "throughout the epidemic" - or otherwise casualties will exceed predictions.

The one bit that scares me most is that over the last week, the death rate inched up from 1.35% to over 2% (of confirmed cases). Since the number of fatalities is the most reliable bit of data, and hospitals probably aren't doing worse tending to the sick (yet), that would indicate that - after all of Trump's mendacious boasts about millions of tests and everyone who needs a test can get a test - testing falls even farther behind the spread of the pandemic as it progresses at an exponential pace.

To me, that would also indicate that the current modeling of the spread, fatalities and hospital caseload will soon have to be corrected upward. Also to keep in mind, the (probably) rosy predictions say that the peak will happen some time in April. That should put into context Trump's other boast, 100,000 ventilators built in 100 days. It so happens I believe ventilators delivered in July won't be much help to meet peak demand in April.

Finally, here's an article taking aim at both the modeling and mitigating the pandemic. It would appear to be well-founded as to the math. I am not so sure I agree with the reasoning underpinning longer-term developments, as the situation on the ground regarding both the abundant availability of testing and anti-viral therapy would change outcomes decisively. The precondition for that to work is, of course, to get the numbers of new infections down to a manageable level to protect the healthcare system against collapse and to get ahead of the spread with testing.

 

[Weatherman2020]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

You can be our Doctor Doom.

Did a thousand Americans die yesterday from this bug?

 

[Weatherman2020]

Starting to see possible "disinformation" on COVID numbers.. To my knowledge, ALL physician, medical statistics on epidemics are reported THRU the CDC... So whether that information is FULLY correct, does not matter as much as information that "suddenly appears" from some random sites that might be linked to other countries efforts to "quiet us down" or "rile us up"...

Apologies to anyone that posted this link already.. Saw it yesterday and the gist is --- Most states and the country are gonna PEAK Mid-April... With "out of the wood" being maybe mid May... When you READ the graphs, realized they are MODELS.. So the solid lines are the BEST EXPECTATIONS... The color shaded areas are measures of UNCERTAINTY...

Like for the Entire US graph --- the uncertainties run kinda high because of not knowing how many OTHER major population areas will be hit -- etc... But if you drill down to "mild states" -- the timeframe is the same, but the uncertainty is almost negligible...

Here's the site -- it's an ORG associated with CDC.. Stay well and don't panic.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

As far as I have seen (roughly half the States), the uncertainty range in all of them is enormous. The reason for that is, most likely, because of a severe lack of testing, no one has the first clue as to the number of infected anywhere. This applies to both so-called "mild states" and New York.

Also:

Conclusions and Relevance​

​

In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.​

Let me emphasize mitigation maintained "throughout the epidemic" - or otherwise casualties will exceed predictions.

The one bit that scares me most is that over the last week, the death rate inched up from 1.35% to over 2% (of confirmed cases). Since the number of fatalities is the most reliable bit of data, and hospitals probably aren't doing worse tending to the sick (yet), that would indicate that - after all of Trump's mendacious boasts about millions of tests and everyone who needs a test can get a test - testing falls even farther behind the spread of the pandemic as it progresses at an exponential pace.

To me, that would also indicate that the current modeling of the spread, fatalities and hospital caseload will soon have to be corrected upward. Also to keep in mind, the (probably) rosy predictions say that the peak will happen some time in April. That should put into context Trump's other boast, 100,000 ventilators built in 100 days. It so happens I believe ventilators delivered in July won't be much help to meet peak demand in April.

Finally, here's an article taking aim at both the modeling and mitigating the pandemic. It would appear to be well-founded as to the math. I am not so sure I agree with the reasoning underpinning longer-term developments, as the situation on the ground regarding both the abundant availability of testing and anti-viral therapy would change outcomes decisively. The precondition for that to work is, of course, to get the numbers of new infections down to a manageable level to protect the healthcare system against collapse and to get ahead of the spread with testing.

What does testing do? Fluid in the lungs is either the flu or this bug. So the total between the two is the number. And flu cases have plummeted.

 

[jc456]

"About face on chloroquine. Nevada governor reverses decision, allows anti-malarial drugs for coronavirus in patients"


I love when this happens .... we knew it works, why Nevada Governor didn't want to use it in the first place is anybody's guess...he is a total moron....but the evidence forced him to change his stupid mind....Hallelujah!!!

Nevada governor is allowing chloroquine for coronavirus inpatients, office says

Sisolak has 'based every decision he's made on the opinions of medical experts,' says governor's spokesman

justthenews.com

Hate of Trump makes people do VERY STUPID THINGS..........If Trump said breathing is good for you .......they would probably hold their breath til they pass out.

List: 74 actions taken by Trump to fight virus and bolster economy - Washington Examiner

In less than a week, the Trump administration has greatly expanded the actions it's taken to fight the coronavirus and boost the economy, according to its latest tally of “response efforts.”Last week, when Secrets first ran the list, it totaled 43. By Monday, it was at 74, with many more planned...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

hate americans.

 

[jc456]

Starting to see possible "disinformation" on COVID numbers.. To my knowledge, ALL physician, medical statistics on epidemics are reported THRU the CDC... So whether that information is FULLY correct, does not matter as much as information that "suddenly appears" from some random sites that might be linked to other countries efforts to "quiet us down" or "rile us up"...

Apologies to anyone that posted this link already.. Saw it yesterday and the gist is --- Most states and the country are gonna PEAK Mid-April... With "out of the wood" being maybe mid May... When you READ the graphs, realized they are MODELS.. So the solid lines are the BEST EXPECTATIONS... The color shaded areas are measures of UNCERTAINTY...

Like for the Entire US graph --- the uncertainties run kinda high because of not knowing how many OTHER major population areas will be hit -- etc... But if you drill down to "mild states" -- the timeframe is the same, but the uncertainty is almost negligible...

Here's the site -- it's an ORG associated with CDC.. Stay well and don't panic.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

As far as I have seen (roughly half the States), the uncertainty range in all of them is enormous. The reason for that is, most likely, because of a severe lack of testing, no one has the first clue as to the number of infected anywhere. This applies to both so-called "mild states" and New York.

Also:

Conclusions and Relevance​

​

In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.​

Let me emphasize mitigation maintained "throughout the epidemic" - or otherwise casualties will exceed predictions.

The one bit that scares me most is that over the last week, the death rate inched up from 1.35% to over 2% (of confirmed cases). Since the number of fatalities is the most reliable bit of data, and hospitals probably aren't doing worse tending to the sick (yet), that would indicate that - after all of Trump's mendacious boasts about millions of tests and everyone who needs a test can get a test - testing falls even farther behind the spread of the pandemic as it progresses at an exponential pace.

To me, that would also indicate that the current modeling of the spread, fatalities and hospital caseload will soon have to be corrected upward. Also to keep in mind, the (probably) rosy predictions say that the peak will happen some time in April. That should put into context Trump's other boast, 100,000 ventilators built in 100 days. It so happens I believe ventilators delivered in July won't be much help to meet peak demand in April.

Finally, here's an article taking aim at both the modeling and mitigating the pandemic. It would appear to be well-founded as to the math. I am not so sure I agree with the reasoning underpinning longer-term developments, as the situation on the ground regarding both the abundant availability of testing and anti-viral therapy would change outcomes decisively. The precondition for that to work is, of course, to get the numbers of new infections down to a manageable level to protect the healthcare system against collapse and to get ahead of the spread with testing.

What does testing do? Fluid in the lungs is either the flu or this bug. So the total between the two is the number. And flu cases have plummeted.

isn't that funny? you know when you have to promote a hoax, every other death is Wuhan related. Demofks #1 tactic.
You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.

Rahm Emanuel

Flu numbers were 1000 every four weeks, and now they aren't increasing. Did Trump cure the flu?

 

[Weatherman2020]

Starting to see possible "disinformation" on COVID numbers.. To my knowledge, ALL physician, medical statistics on epidemics are reported THRU the CDC... So whether that information is FULLY correct, does not matter as much as information that "suddenly appears" from some random sites that might be linked to other countries efforts to "quiet us down" or "rile us up"...

Apologies to anyone that posted this link already.. Saw it yesterday and the gist is --- Most states and the country are gonna PEAK Mid-April... With "out of the wood" being maybe mid May... When you READ the graphs, realized they are MODELS.. So the solid lines are the BEST EXPECTATIONS... The color shaded areas are measures of UNCERTAINTY...

Like for the Entire US graph --- the uncertainties run kinda high because of not knowing how many OTHER major population areas will be hit -- etc... But if you drill down to "mild states" -- the timeframe is the same, but the uncertainty is almost negligible...

Here's the site -- it's an ORG associated with CDC.. Stay well and don't panic.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

As far as I have seen (roughly half the States), the uncertainty range in all of them is enormous. The reason for that is, most likely, because of a severe lack of testing, no one has the first clue as to the number of infected anywhere. This applies to both so-called "mild states" and New York.

Also:

Conclusions and Relevance​

​

In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.​

Let me emphasize mitigation maintained "throughout the epidemic" - or otherwise casualties will exceed predictions.

The one bit that scares me most is that over the last week, the death rate inched up from 1.35% to over 2% (of confirmed cases). Since the number of fatalities is the most reliable bit of data, and hospitals probably aren't doing worse tending to the sick (yet), that would indicate that - after all of Trump's mendacious boasts about millions of tests and everyone who needs a test can get a test - testing falls even farther behind the spread of the pandemic as it progresses at an exponential pace.

To me, that would also indicate that the current modeling of the spread, fatalities and hospital caseload will soon have to be corrected upward. Also to keep in mind, the (probably) rosy predictions say that the peak will happen some time in April. That should put into context Trump's other boast, 100,000 ventilators built in 100 days. It so happens I believe ventilators delivered in July won't be much help to meet peak demand in April.

Finally, here's an article taking aim at both the modeling and mitigating the pandemic. It would appear to be well-founded as to the math. I am not so sure I agree with the reasoning underpinning longer-term developments, as the situation on the ground regarding both the abundant availability of testing and anti-viral therapy would change outcomes decisively. The precondition for that to work is, of course, to get the numbers of new infections down to a manageable level to protect the healthcare system against collapse and to get ahead of the spread with testing.

What does testing do? Fluid in the lungs is either the flu or this bug. So the total between the two is the number. And flu cases have plummeted.

isn't that funny? you know when you have to promote a hoax, every other death is Wuhan related. Demofks #1 tactic.
You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.

Rahm Emanuel

Flu numbers were 1000 every four weeks, and now they aren't increasing. Did Trump cure the flu?

But it’s a scary looking graph with red lines, it must mean bad things!

 

[jc456]

Starting to see possible "disinformation" on COVID numbers.. To my knowledge, ALL physician, medical statistics on epidemics are reported THRU the CDC... So whether that information is FULLY correct, does not matter as much as information that "suddenly appears" from some random sites that might be linked to other countries efforts to "quiet us down" or "rile us up"...

Apologies to anyone that posted this link already.. Saw it yesterday and the gist is --- Most states and the country are gonna PEAK Mid-April... With "out of the wood" being maybe mid May... When you READ the graphs, realized they are MODELS.. So the solid lines are the BEST EXPECTATIONS... The color shaded areas are measures of UNCERTAINTY...

Like for the Entire US graph --- the uncertainties run kinda high because of not knowing how many OTHER major population areas will be hit -- etc... But if you drill down to "mild states" -- the timeframe is the same, but the uncertainty is almost negligible...

Here's the site -- it's an ORG associated with CDC.. Stay well and don't panic.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

As far as I have seen (roughly half the States), the uncertainty range in all of them is enormous. The reason for that is, most likely, because of a severe lack of testing, no one has the first clue as to the number of infected anywhere. This applies to both so-called "mild states" and New York.

Also:

Conclusions and Relevance​

​

In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.​

Let me emphasize mitigation maintained "throughout the epidemic" - or otherwise casualties will exceed predictions.

The one bit that scares me most is that over the last week, the death rate inched up from 1.35% to over 2% (of confirmed cases). Since the number of fatalities is the most reliable bit of data, and hospitals probably aren't doing worse tending to the sick (yet), that would indicate that - after all of Trump's mendacious boasts about millions of tests and everyone who needs a test can get a test - testing falls even farther behind the spread of the pandemic as it progresses at an exponential pace.

To me, that would also indicate that the current modeling of the spread, fatalities and hospital caseload will soon have to be corrected upward. Also to keep in mind, the (probably) rosy predictions say that the peak will happen some time in April. That should put into context Trump's other boast, 100,000 ventilators built in 100 days. It so happens I believe ventilators delivered in July won't be much help to meet peak demand in April.

Finally, here's an article taking aim at both the modeling and mitigating the pandemic. It would appear to be well-founded as to the math. I am not so sure I agree with the reasoning underpinning longer-term developments, as the situation on the ground regarding both the abundant availability of testing and anti-viral therapy would change outcomes decisively. The precondition for that to work is, of course, to get the numbers of new infections down to a manageable level to protect the healthcare system against collapse and to get ahead of the spread with testing.

What does testing do? Fluid in the lungs is either the flu or this bug. So the total between the two is the number. And flu cases have plummeted.

isn't that funny? you know when you have to promote a hoax, every other death is Wuhan related. Demofks #1 tactic.
You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.

Rahm Emanuel

Flu numbers were 1000 every four weeks, and now they aren't increasing. Did Trump cure the flu?

But it’s a scary looking graph with red lines, it must mean bad things!

it's what a demofk likes to do scare human beings.

 

[LoneLaugher]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

You can be our Doctor Doom.

Did a thousand Americans die yesterday from this bug?

Almost.

 

[jc456]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

You can be our Doctor Doom.

Did a thousand Americans die yesterday from this bug?

Almost.

to get to the numbers of dead, there will have to be 10,000 a day. do you think that's going to happen? do you really? we know that only 10% die with current known figures. 10% of 190,000 is only 19,000. Not 100,000 or 240,000.

Their numbers

 

[LoneLaugher]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

You can be our Doctor Doom.

Did a thousand Americans die yesterday from this bug?

Almost.

to get to the numbers of dead, there will have to be 10,000 a day. do you think that's going to happen? do you really? we know that only 10% die with current known figures. 10% of 190,000 is only 19,000. Not 100,000 or 240,000.

Their numbers

You are doing math without all the numbers. That never works out, dummy.

The president and his team told you that we'd lose 120,000 to 240,000 people to this virus if we do everything right.

Why don't you believe them?

 

[Weatherman2020]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

You can be our Doctor Doom.

Did a thousand Americans die yesterday from this bug?

Almost.

to get to the numbers of dead, there will have to be 10,000 a day. do you think that's going to happen? do you really? we know that only 10% die with current known figures. 10% of 190,000 is only 19,000. Not 100,000 or 240,000.

Their numbers

You are doing math without all the numbers. That never works out, dummy.

The president and his team told you that we'd lose 120,000 to 240,000 people to this virus if we do everything right.

Why don't you believe them?

What else did Trumphitler tell you to do?

 

[jc456]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

You can be our Doctor Doom.

Did a thousand Americans die yesterday from this bug?

Almost.

to get to the numbers of dead, there will have to be 10,000 a day. do you think that's going to happen? do you really? we know that only 10% die with current known figures. 10% of 190,000 is only 19,000. Not 100,000 or 240,000.

Their numbers

You are doing math without all the numbers. That never works out, dummy.

The president and his team told you that we'd lose 120,000 to 240,000 people to this virus if we do everything right.

Why don't you believe them?

because the numbers aren't there. that's why. I'm looking at the numbers the CDC is putting out, not mine. right now the numbers show a 2.1% will die and that's at 4,000 with 190,000 infected. Now double the infected count and the number of deaths only go to 8,000. Dude, how the fk are you going to get to 100,000 let alone 240,000? If this jumps, then self isolation didn't work. And that's absurd to any logic thinking math knowledgeable person. Trump's listening to the experts, they are wrong. They will end up wrong.

 

[LoneLaugher]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

You can be our Doctor Doom.

Did a thousand Americans die yesterday from this bug?

Almost.

to get to the numbers of dead, there will have to be 10,000 a day. do you think that's going to happen? do you really? we know that only 10% die with current known figures. 10% of 190,000 is only 19,000. Not 100,000 or 240,000.

Their numbers

You are doing math without all the numbers. That never works out, dummy.

The president and his team told you that we'd lose 120,000 to 240,000 people to this virus if we do everything right.

Why don't you believe them?

because the numbers aren't there. that's why. I'm looking at the numbers the CDC is putting out, not mine. right now the numbers show a 2.1% will die and that's at 4,000 with 190,000 infected. Now double the infected count and the number of deaths only go to 8,000. Dude, how the fk are you going to get to 100,000 let alone 240,000. If this jumps, then self isolation didn't work. And that's absurd to any logic thinking math knowledgeable person. Trump's listening to the experts, they are wrong. They will end up wrong.

How many people in this nation have contracted this virus?

 

[jc456]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

You can be our Doctor Doom.

Did a thousand Americans die yesterday from this bug?

Almost.

to get to the numbers of dead, there will have to be 10,000 a day. do you think that's going to happen? do you really? we know that only 10% die with current known figures. 10% of 190,000 is only 19,000. Not 100,000 or 240,000.

Their numbers

You are doing math without all the numbers. That never works out, dummy.

The president and his team told you that we'd lose 120,000 to 240,000 people to this virus if we do everything right.

Why don't you believe them?

because the numbers aren't there. that's why. I'm looking at the numbers the CDC is putting out, not mine. right now the numbers show a 2.1% will die and that's at 4,000 with 190,000 infected. Now double the infected count and the number of deaths only go to 8,000. Dude, how the fk are you going to get to 100,000 let alone 240,000. If this jumps, then self isolation didn't work. And that's absurd to any logic thinking math knowledgeable person. Trump's listening to the experts, they are wrong. They will end up wrong.

How many people in this nation have contracted this virus?

why? we're all sequestered, how are they going to spread it? the data is the data. you don't believe the experts?