No where NEAR a certainty that BOTH cost and efficiency improve together. Solar PV is a very mature tech and what is in the lab at HIGHER efficiencies is likely to cost MUCH more.. Might be used on a Mars Rover, but not likely to show up on your roof. We have known for decades that going to Gallium Arsenide would be a leap in efficiency. But much more expensive. And no one really wants to mine and recycle TONS of Arsenic now do ya? But stuff like that doesnt matter for performance bragging right "in the lab".
You need to revamp your definition of "Mature Technology". Here's one from Wikipedia;
"A mature technology is a technology that has been in use for long enough that most of its initial faults and inherent problems have been removed or reduced by further development. In some contexts, it may also refer to technology which has not seen widespread use, but whose scientific background is well understood.[1]
One of the key indicators of a mature technology is the ease of use for both non-experts and professionals. Another indicator is a reduction in the rate of new breakthrough advances related to it—whereas inventions related to a (popular) immature technology are usually rapid and diverse,[2] and may change the whole use paradigm—advances to a mature technology are usually incremental improvements only."
Yes the PV concept has been around for a long time, most people don't know that Einstien won his Nobel Prize in 1921 for describing the photo-electric effect and not his more mind shattering work in relativity. However inventions and research related to solar technology are today "rapid and diverse". Here's one good example from hundreds;
A fully transparent solar cell that could make every window and screen a power source
Researchers at Michigan State University have created a fully transparent solar concentrator, which could turn any window or sheet of glass (like your smartphone’s screen) into a photovoltaic solar cell. Unlike other “transparent” solar cells that we’ve reported on in the past, this one really is transparent, as you can see in the photos throughout this story. According to Richard Lunt, who led the research, the team are confident that the transparent solar panels can be efficiently deployed in a wide range of settings, from “tall buildings with lots of windows or any kind of mobile device that demands high aesthetic quality like a phone or e-reader.”
Another promising new technological approach is nanotechnology. Theoretically the nanocrystal approach could reach efficiencies of 60 percent or higher, though it may be smaller in practice. Engineering advances will be required to find ways of integrating such nanocrystal cells into a system that can transmit the energy into a circuit.
Sure a lot of this stuff is still in the lab at the R&D stage but some of it will be on the retail shelf in the very near future. For instance Alta Devices’ single-junction GaAs thin-film solar cells are already in production. This is the "Gallium Arsenide (that you said) would be a leap in efficiency. But much more expensive."
"This breakthrough in PV technology means that users do not need to trade off performance for cost, weight or flexibility that is inherent in other technologies. For mobile power, this is a truly enabling change, allowing extremely high charging efficiency in a small, lightweight and highly-portable form-factor, and is ideal for use on anything that moves, can be carried, or worn".
"Alta Devices’ use of gallium arsenide (GaAs) allows its dual- and single-junction solar cells to produce record-breaking conversion efficiencies of 30.8% and 28.8% respectively, as certified by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)".
I'm tempted to call you guy's that use the "snapshot" approach to evaluating technology (what's available today and not just around the corner) the INF (It'll never fly) crowd, or the New Luddite's.
And I'm sorry, your other objection to Gallium Arsenide, "And no one really wants to mine and recycle TONS of Arsenic now do ya?" is almost silly in it's naivety. World production of Arsenic right now is about 44,000 tons. And I happen to know a little about recycling, the last 8 years of my working life I spent running a non-ferrous metal recycling operation. I looked up the Material Safety Data Sheet for Arsenic, it's not really any scarier than many other hazardous materials we handled on a regular basis. Recycling of any material is of course Green as well as cost efficient. 96% of car batteries in the U.S. are recycled and up to 50% of lead products are manufactured with recycled lead.
"Many outdoor wood structures such as playgrounds and decks have been treated with copper chromated arsenate wood preservative. The preservative often gives wood a green color. Arsenic is and has been used medicinally. Arsenic is currently used for induction and consolidation chemotherapy for acute promyelocytic leukemia and other cancers [Miller et al. 2002; Hu et al. 2005]. Arsphenamin (Salvarsan) was the first effective cure for syphilis until replaced by antibiotics after World War II".
I think your focus on the toxic properties of arsenic might be analogous to the scare tactics that GW advocates are often accused of using.
Now here is what I think may be the biggest problem caused by the INF opposition to emerging energy technologies. The company I mentioned - "Alta Devices’ who's use of gallium arsenide (GaAs) allows its dual- and single-junction solar cells to produce record-breaking conversion efficiencies of 30.8% and 28.8% respectively, as certified by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)" is on the cutting edge of one of the most promising new solar technologies. In 2012 and 2013, MIT Technology Review named Alta Devices as being among the “World’s Most Disruptive Companies”. It's an American company based in Sunnydale California. Or I should say it was an American company. This summer it was bought by Hanergy Holding Group, guess where their from, yep, China. In 2014 Hanergy was the only Chinese energy company named among the “World’s Smartest Companies” by the MIT Technology Review. If America keeps opposing the inevitable it's slide into a second rate innovative and manufacturing power is going to continue. The 20th was the American century. If it doesn't lead he way in these new Technologies it will be left behind in the 21st. And as I already mentioned the reason it led the way in almost all of the 20th centuries innovations was Government subsidies and investment in research and developement. The new Luddites whining about things like government money going into projects like solar energy experiments is counter productive and akin to shooting oneself in the foot. Those who have "Bragging Rights" in the lab today will probably be the ones who have bragging rights on the World economic stage tommorrow. It won't just be a Mar's Rover the Chinese are powering, it will be a big percentage of the homes and businesses in the rest of the world.
Double -entry accounting coming right up....
). In fact, when loosey-goosey monetary policies of the FED end and inflation starts to soar, its going to be harder and harder for the pols to sell government handouts to inefficient energy sources. Indeed, tax revenues will need to be earmarked to area's more politically volatile = votes. All polls show.......nobody cares about global warming compared to over 20 other more pressing issues. Pols follow the polls. Like we saw in the past two years in Germany......the pols don't stay in power when they are whacking people over the head with high energy bills.
