bripat9643
Diamond Member
- Apr 1, 2011
- 170,170
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OANN/Gravis - Trump 51%; Clinton 49% (Trump +2)
- Thread starter bripat9643
- Start date
Vigilante
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #2
Just to PILE ON....
- LA Times/Dornsife tracking poll now Trump +2
\
LA Times ^ | NA
LA Times/Dornsife poll now Trump +2 - not updated on RCP average yet. Also Reuters is +3 Clinton today not +4. Combined this brings Trump to +.5% in the average of the last 5 polls on RCP.
JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
- 63,590
- 16,797
- 2,220
The nation is sick of the Bush/Clinton dynasties.
We dont need to elect a fucking crooked Queen Mother.
We dont need to elect a fucking crooked Queen Mother.
DarkFury
Platinum Member
- Banned
- #5
The "bump" you moron takes 5 to 7 days.I smell bullshit. Neither has been polling above the low 40% range in other polls.
Even if we were to believe these figures, given that Trump presumably enjoyed a post-convention bump, well, it didn't get him much ground on HRC.
Vigilante
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #6
Of course you smell BULLSHIT....YOU entered this thread!I smell bullshit. Neither has been polling above the low 40% range in other polls.
Even if we were to believe these figures, given that Trump presumably enjoyed a post-convention bump, well, it didn't get him much ground on HRC.
william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
- 16,667
- 2,405
- 280
The polling data doesn't so much show Trump progressing as much as Hillary regressing and it sill get much worse.
Rexx Taylor
Platinum Member
- Banned
- #8
well, my polling still has it 54/39 Trump
- Mar 31, 2009
- 102,677
- 82,861
- 3,605
I smell bullshit. Neither has been polling above the low 40% range in other polls.
Even if we were to believe these figures, given that Trump presumably enjoyed a post-convention bump, well, it didn't get him much ground on HRC.
It ended Thursday, polls won't reflect that until this upcoming week
william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
- 16,667
- 2,405
- 280
I smell bullshit. Neither has been polling above the low 40% range in other polls.
Even if we were to believe these figures, given that Trump presumably enjoyed a post-convention bump, well, it didn't get him much ground on HRC.
It ended Thursday, polls won't reflect that until this upcoming week
I smell bullshit. Neither has been polling above the low 40% range in other polls.
Even if we were to believe these figures, given that Trump presumably enjoyed a post-convention bump, well, it didn't get him much ground on HRC.
It ended Thursday, polls won't reflect that until this upcoming week
So, Hillary will be falling relative to Trump during her convention?
- Mar 31, 2009
- 102,677
- 82,861
- 3,605
I smell bullshit. Neither has been polling above the low 40% range in other polls.
Even if we were to believe these figures, given that Trump presumably enjoyed a post-convention bump, well, it didn't get him much ground on HRC.
It ended Thursday, polls won't reflect that until this upcoming weekI smell bullshit. Neither has been polling above the low 40% range in other polls.
Even if we were to believe these figures, given that Trump presumably enjoyed a post-convention bump, well, it didn't get him much ground on HRC.
It ended Thursday, polls won't reflect that until this upcoming week
So, Hillary will be falling relative to Trump during her convention?
IDK I don't trust any poll except the one in Nov
Rexx Taylor
Platinum Member
- Banned
- #12
I just hit the maggic 7000 Rating Mark! Does this mean I get a 25.00 wal mart gift card?
OANN/Gravis is a robocall poll, which has some federal legal problems, being unable to call mobile phone.
Others note:
_________________________
To save money, more polling is done using robocalls, Internet-based surveys, and other non-standard methods. Such alternatives may prove useful but they come with real risks. Robocalls, for example, are forbidden by law from dialing mobile phones. Online polling may oversample young people or Democratic Party voters. While such methods don’t necessarily produce inaccurate results, Franklin and others note, their newness makes it harder to predict reliability.
The young, who increasingly communicate via text, are not only less willing to speak over the phone about political preferences; they are less interested in talking by phone about anything at all.
As response rates have declined, the need to rely on risky mathematical maneuvers has increased. To compensate for under-represented groups, like younger voters, some pollsters adjust their results to better reflect the population -- or their assessment of who will vote. Different firms have different models that factor in things like voter age, education, income, and historical election data to make up for the all the voters they couldn’t query.
"The risk that we all face is that when assumptions trump the raw material, we’re too far out on that limb," said Jon Cohen, vice president of survey research at Survey Monkey and the former polling director for the Washington Post, who is among those using online surveys.
____________________________________
It is entirely likely that no one in the poll had ever heard of Ted Cruz, for example, or if "Please Leave A Message," was even a registered voter(?), or old enough take one, or young enough to hear anything. Mostly reliable organizations have not taken too much interest in the poll.
"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Many White Eyes just know, in fact, how their Great Spirit, really answers prayers(?), and hears them--except when it doesn't(?). . .or something!)
Others note:
_________________________
To save money, more polling is done using robocalls, Internet-based surveys, and other non-standard methods. Such alternatives may prove useful but they come with real risks. Robocalls, for example, are forbidden by law from dialing mobile phones. Online polling may oversample young people or Democratic Party voters. While such methods don’t necessarily produce inaccurate results, Franklin and others note, their newness makes it harder to predict reliability.
The young, who increasingly communicate via text, are not only less willing to speak over the phone about political preferences; they are less interested in talking by phone about anything at all.
As response rates have declined, the need to rely on risky mathematical maneuvers has increased. To compensate for under-represented groups, like younger voters, some pollsters adjust their results to better reflect the population -- or their assessment of who will vote. Different firms have different models that factor in things like voter age, education, income, and historical election data to make up for the all the voters they couldn’t query.
"The risk that we all face is that when assumptions trump the raw material, we’re too far out on that limb," said Jon Cohen, vice president of survey research at Survey Monkey and the former polling director for the Washington Post, who is among those using online surveys.
____________________________________
It is entirely likely that no one in the poll had ever heard of Ted Cruz, for example, or if "Please Leave A Message," was even a registered voter(?), or old enough take one, or young enough to hear anything. Mostly reliable organizations have not taken too much interest in the poll.
"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Many White Eyes just know, in fact, how their Great Spirit, really answers prayers(?), and hears them--except when it doesn't(?). . .or something!)
NYcarbineer
Diamond Member
Interesting thread from the guy who says polls are useless when he doesn't like them.
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