As a business owner, I thank each and every one of you for subsidizing my labor costs. But, you get yours in return ... lower prices.
If we increase the minimum wage, or more appropriately, increase the wages of the bottom 10%, the resulting ripple will be felt in middle class homes. If I have to pay more for labor, I will pass that extra cost on to the consumer by raising product prices.
If I raise product prices, the middle class will be faced with two choices: 1) quit buying the product, or 2) pay a larger percentage of your income for the product. Since it is unrealistic to think that people are going to quit eating, or living, eliminating a product from the market is unreasonable. You can,however, expect that people will pay the larger price.
The middle class then will, of course, demand an increase in wages in order to offset the increase in cost of living. Increasing income of the middle class will then result in even higher prices - which means the lower class will need another increase in wages in order to offset the increase in prices.
And, so the cycle goes on ....
The answer is not to increase their wages, but give them opportunity, and the incentive, to increase their position in the job market thru education.
Infrastructure maintenance and upgrade is ballyhooed as being the solution - but, in reality, it would exacerbate the problem, not fix it. Nobody questions that the infrastructure needs to be upgraded. It is almost criminal the way it has been ignored. But, to claim it as a panacea for the poor is simplistic and shortsighted.
Infrastructure upgrade is done with tax dollars - tax dollars that would have to be taken from other programs. Which government programs do you propose we eliminate? The alternatives to that --- borrow the money or increase taxes.
'Increase taxes' seems to be the easiest and most politically acceptable - after all, the majority of people would not be affected (or minimally), and the load would be carried by the top 30% of income earners. However, we need to keep in mind that, of every dollar we remove from the economy, 38% of it goes to operating/maintaining the government oversight. So, only 62% ends up at the production level. In addition, there is the unequal penalty of tax increases - why should one person who drives over a bridge pay $500 a year for the bridge, while the person in the car behind them pays nothing? The concept violates the very essence of our country.
We also need to be aware that every dollar removed from the economy, through increased taxation, is one less dollar that can be used to increase the need for labor. So, we produce less jobs because we have to pay more taxes, and when we pay more taxes, only 68% is used to create jobs.
Clearly, a downward spiral ....
Out of the goodness of your heart, you might choose to pay your employees more if the government didn't subsidize their needs, but I believe most employers would pay wages based on supply and demand in the labor market.
What you're saying is raising the minimum wage will increase inflation. Well, yes and no. It isn't always necessary for companies to push the expenses of a higher-paid workforce onto consumers. Raising the minimum wage can create a temporary or artificial bump in the inflation rate, but so can increases in corporate taxes or a shortage of raw materials.
The presidents proposal is to raise minimum wage $1.75 or about 23%. However this does not mean inflation will increase 23% or anything even close to that figure. The reason for this is wage scales do not increase uniformly. A company whose lowest paid employee is making $11 does not necessary make any change to their wage scales. When faced with an increase in labor cost, businesses do not necessarily raise prices. Some business will just absorb the cost, others will layoff marginal workers, cut other expenses, or some combination of cost saving and revenue increases..
In previous minimum wage increase, it has been very difficult for economist to identify any inflationary impact.
A major Infrastructure improvement program would last for years creating a demand for low income workers plus it would provide stimulus to the economy for a number of years. Over the long term, it will make the nation more productive. A better faster highway and rail system will bring goods to market faster, and improve worker productivity.
First of all, a corporation does not have "the goodness of your heart". It exists for one singular purpose - to maximize the profits for those who own it. Nothing more - nothing less. Can you imagine the reaction if I were to stand up in front of the next stockholders' meeting and announce that, normally, you would have received $11.55 per share dividends this year, but because I felt the workers needed better wages, you will not receive any dividend, and for those of you representing mutual funds, 401(k)s, etc., you need to go to your consumers and tell them you lost money for them this year? Oh, by the way, all those retired people depending on my stock to fund their retirement program will have to go hungry next year.
You are, of course, right that there is not a linear actual increase in wages up the pay scale - in fact, it's much more damaging than that. If a corporation were to increase its unskilled labor wage base by 10%, that percentage tends to stay the same - though, not necessarily, equal - but the ramifications are amazing. For example, I increase the unskilled labor base by 23% (your number), it is inconceivable that I won't have to increase all the other labor rates. While it won't be 23%, it will be 12% or 10% or 8%. 8% of an engineer's salary (assume 80K) is significantly more damaging. It is not a linear scale - it is an exponential scale that will devastate the corporation's competitive position. THAT is how the market gets inflated.
People look at the minimum wage law in a tunnel - they consider the impact on the labor base, and nothing else. They need to,instead, look at the unintended consequences of such an action.
The problem isn't a low minimum wage. Minimum wage jobs are intended to be for those entering the job market with no marketable skills - teenagers, etc. I think I can say, probably without exception, that there are no minimum wage jobs that require you to bring skills to the table - instead, those jobs are the ones that you get paid while you learn marketable skills.
The problem is that there is a segment of our labor pool that have no skills, but yet have families to raise. I'm sure we have all noticed that the average age of the fast food worker has increased significantly over the past two decades. Adults and seniors are taking positions originally intended for teenagers, and those positions were never intended to be lifestyle support.
Companies pay for skills - if you don't have them, you don't get hired. Then, you are forced to go to minimum skilled positions - which pay minimum wage.
There was a recent article in the paper about trying to live on minimum wage. To prove how bad it is, they interviewed a fast food worker in Los Angeles. She said that she had been working at McDonald's, and her pay had only increased to $9.35/hour. She was a single mother trying to raise three kids. Pretty tough deal - no doubt. But, she said this through an interpreter. She had come from Mexico, found a job at McDonalds, and had worked there for six years.
You have to sympathize with her - until you realize that she has no other marketable skills. She has made no attempt to upgrade her marketability. In six years, she hasn't even bothered to learn to speak English!! Is it McDonalds' fault she only makes $9.35, or is it hers? Why would you ask McDonalds so subsidize her?
A good post, although I disagree with some of your ideas. If minimum wage increases were a major cause of inflation, then we should expect to see some dramatic increase in inflation which we have not see.
- Minimum wage was increase by 40% between 2006 and 2009. The cumulative increase in inflation during this period was 6.4%.
- The increase prior to that was 11.8% in 1997. The inflation that year was 3.04%, 1.67% in 1998, and 1.57% in 1999.
- The prior increase in minimum wage was 11.8% in 1991. The inflation rate for that year was 5.6%, 2.6% in 1992, and 3.2% in 1993.
Now, I'm not saying minimum wage increase has no effect on inflation. What I am saying is that other factors far out weight the effect of the increase on inflation. The contribution that minimum wages makes to inflation occurs primarily in the year it goes into effect and the following year. From the data, one can see that the inflation rate is significantly lower than the minimum wage increase and over the long term inflation due to minimum wage increases are insignificant isolated blips.
And I would disagree with that completely. You are using terrible inflation measurements. The CPI is horrible.
Second, monetary inflation (inflation do to expanding the money supply) will effect everything fairly evenly. That is not the type of inflation that the minimum wage causes.
The minimum wage inflation generally effects those areas of the economy where you have extremely low wages.
So we would expect to see that the cost of fast food would be highly affected by the minimum wage laws. Do we? Yes we do. Fast food prices have drastically increased between 2006 and 2010. The price of a chipotle burrito in 2006 was about $4.75, and today it's $6.50 for the same chicken burrito.
Price Increases at McDonalds from 2002 to 2013
You can look through some of the menus this guy showed. And sure enough many of the prices have drastically increased.
By the way, not only have prices gone up, but in many cases the serving sizes go down. I was slightly surprised to discover that my local pizza shop used to sell 15" pizzas for $14.59. Now they sell 14" pizzas for $14.59.
Wendy's has decreased the size of their soft drink cups. Used to be 40 oz, now they are 32 oz. Same price, smaller size.
The current inflation index system, doesn't calculate those differences.
Lastly, there is a mitigating effect on minimum wage inflation. Namely.... the replacement of workers with kiosks. Again, I work at a company that makes kiosks, and the printers that kiosks use. Back in 2005-2006, none of the movie theaters I went to had kiosks.
Today, if you walk into a movie theater, there is usually (my experience), one single person in the booth, and the rest of the registers are empty. Instead, you have a dozen kiosks.
Replacing workers with kiosks, mitigates the inflationary effect of the minimum wage.... obviously.... because you are not paying the minimum wage. Your labor costs actually go DOWN because you lay off the workers, and replace them with kiosks.
And we've seen this all over the place. There's a little Get-N-Go quick mart near where I work, and they have a little grill in the back, where you could buy a burger or whatever, right in the shop.
Well, they remodeled 2012, and when I walked in, all the servers were gone, and in their place, 3 kiosks. Now there is one guy, that cooks all the food. You punch in your order at the kiosk, and he whips it up, and says "order 25 ready". Instead of 4 or 5 people, now there is only ONE. So of course the prices have not increased as dramatically as the minimum wage, because they are not paying 5 people anymore, they are paying ONE. The other 4 people are now unemployed. They don't have jobs anymore.
So I would argue that prices have risen quite a bit, and the amount they have not kept up in direct correlation to the minimum wage, is because they have laid people off and replaced them with machines.
There is no evidence that the cost of living has gone up due to minimum wage increases. It is logical to assume that minimum wage increases contributes to the overall increase in prices but the amount of that increase can't be determine. No matter how you look at it, the increase in inflation is significantly lower that minimum wage increases.
Again there is no way of knowing how employers will handle an increase in labor cost. Employers can only layoff employees if it will not significantly reduce revenue.
A good example of how employers plan to handle a large increase in minimum wage can be found in Seattle which passed a resolution to raise minimum wage 50%. Ivars, a chain of 26 restaurants announced that they will pass along the increases to customers but will instigate a no tipping policy. Another chain, Dick's Hamburger announced they will not be increasing prices because most of their employees already make the new minimum wage. Neither restaurant will be reducing benefits. No restaurant has announced cutbacks in staff. Other employers say they are planing to handle the increase in wage cost by a combination of cost reductions and revenue increases. Surprisingly, most businesses support the increase in minimum wage. A poll of frequent restaurant diners said they will not reduce dinning out even if all costs are passed on to the customer.
The bottom line is that minimum wage increases will raise the wages of some low income workers reducing dependence on government support and giving them a little larger share of the nations wealth. The current federal proposal will raise the wages of very few workers. Even with the ripple of effect, 75 to 85% of the workers will see no change in wages.
Well again, some fast food joints do in fact already pay their employees well above the minimum wage, and it depends on where geographically you are talking about.
For example, high cost places like New York and Boston, of course all of their employees there are paid much more than the minimum wage, simply because it's a high priced environment to begin with.
But here in Ohio, you absolutely can not tell me that the minimum wage hasn't driven up prices, because I can see with my eye balls that they have. I just posted a link showing drastic increases in fast food prices. You can't tell me that the Minimum wage didn't drive up the price of food when in the late 90s, the cost of a chicken burrito was $4.75, and in 2006, the price of a chicken burrito was still $4.75, and then in 2010, after the minimum wage went from $5.25 to $7.25, and now $8.10 here in Ohio, that the price is now $6.50. In a period of 4 years, the price increased almost 40%, when for the past 6 years prior, it didn't increase almost at all.
You even said yourself, that inflation was only about 6.4%, according to your own post. Then how do you explain increases in price of 75% for a Big Mac? Or a 75% increase in price of a Quarter pounder?
The CPI doesn't show such an increase. But that is exactly what we would expect from a minimum wage driven inflation.
Again, in areas where the prices are already sky high, and wages are already higher, then no, we wouldn't see a minimum wage driven inflation. And we don't. Exactly as we would expect.
I don't understand your comment that employers can only lay off people as long as it doesn't effect revenue.
Of course they can. They do that all the time. Look, the average profit margin for a store, is actually very small.
Average Fast-Food Restaurant Has Small Profit Margin
Very very small. Revenue doesn't do diddly jack squat, unless you have profit. No profit, and it doesn't matter what your Revenue is.
Now, if an employer finds that cutting a few people, will allow him to still make a profit, even if at a lower amount of revenue, he'll do it. Pretty easily too. Which is worse.... lower amounts of revenue and profit with fewer employees, or no profit and bankruptcy?
Lastly, it doesn't surprise me that no restaurant chain announced massive layoffs. Most companies do not openly announce they intend to lay people off. In fact, the only companies that generally announce tons of people are being laid off, are those that are required to in Union contracts. GM and Ford will announce such things. You don't generally hear Toyota and Honda doing that.
Additionally, big chain restaurants, don't have to say anything. Remember, most of the stores are individual franchises. When I was working at McDonald's, and they raised the minimum wage in the 90s, McDonald's didn't announce anything. It was the store owner who decided he had to lay three of our employees off, and did so immediately. McD's Corporate wasn't involved in any way.
So it's real easy for "Food Chain Corp" to say that 'we are not going to lay anyone off because of the minimum wage'. Yeah, because they don't have to pay the wages at all. It's the individual store that has to pay the higher priced labor.
Further, which restaurants have said they are going to handle the higher minimum wage? Is it the small independent shops? Or the major chains? See the major chains have the money to handle the new minimum wage better. It's the small independent shops that don't have the massive capital of a major Food Chain Corp, to deal with higher minimum wages.
And we've heard from those people, and they are terrified, and some are leaving.
Seattle Magazine Restaurants Why Are So Many Seattle Restaurants Closing Lately
Last month—and particularly last week— Seattle foodies were downcast as the blows kept coming:
Queen Anne’s Grub closed February 15. Pioneer Square’s
Little Uncle shut down February 25. Shanik’s Meeru Dhalwala announced that it will close March 21.
Renée Erickson’s Boat Street Café will shutter May 30 after 17 years with her at the helm (though, praise be, original owner Susan Kaplan will expand her neighboring Boat Street Kitchen into the space and continue serving the Boat Street paté, the amaretto bread pudding with butter rum cream sauce and other favorites).
Furthermore, less than a week after he was named a James Beard Semifinalist (Best Chef: Northwest) for his work at northern Italian restaurant Spinasse,
Jason Stratton announced he would be stepping down from that restaurant and his others—Artusi and Vespolina—immediately to head to Spain.
What the #*%&$* is going on? A variety of things, probably—and a good chance there is more change to come.
Tons of stores closing in Seattle. Could it be the minimum wage? Or maybe just a bad year? Of course, as you and I both know, the $15/hr minimum wage isn't implemented yet. But maybe these stores know something we don't?
Washington Restaurant Association's Anton puts it this way: “It’s not a political problem; it’s a math problem.”
He estimates that a common budget breakdown among sustaining Seattle restaurants so far has been the following: 36 percent of funds are devoted to labor, 30 percent to food costs and 30 percent go to everything else (all other operational costs). The remaining 4 percent has been the profit margin, and as a result, in a $700,000 restaurant, he estimates that the average restauranteur in Seattle has been making $28,000 a year.
With the minimum wage spike, however, he says that if restaurant owners made no changes, the labor cost in quick service restaurants would rise to 42 percent and in full service restaurants to 47 percent.
“Everyone is looking at the model right now, asking how do we do math?” he says. “Every operator I’m talking to is in panic mode, trying to figure out what the new world will look like.” Regarding amount of labor, at 14 employees, a Washington restaurant already averages three fewer workers than the national restaurant average (17 employees). Anton anticipates customers will definitely be tested with new menu prices and more. “Seattle is the first city in this thing and everyone’s watching, asking how is this going to change?”
Did you catch that? The math doesn't add up, and Seattle stores already have fewer employees than the national average.
Now why is it that the people who are actually in business...... can figure this out, but some pro-minimum wage supporters, deny it? Math.... doesn't lie.... doesn't have a partisan agenda.... doesn't have a political party.
The people who are actually in the business... are saying there's a problem. Why won't you listen to them, instead of your politically motivated reports?