I suppose the OP is referring to the fact that petroleum has to be sold on the world market and cannot be used to undercut prices in America. This is nothing new, it's the price we pay for practically all oil in the world being traded in American dollars.
Here is the answer to THAT problem.
BIG OIL COMPANIES CANāT WAIT FOR REPEAL OF U.S. EXPORT BAN
BY
LEAH MCGRATH GOODMAN ON 12/18/15 AT 3:50 AM
Stacked rigs are seen along with other idled oil drilling equipment at a depot in Dickinson, North Dakota, June 26. As Big Oil again confronts the prospect of $20 oil for the first time in more than a decade, itās no longer content to fall back on dog meatāinstead itās counting on the repeal of Americaās 40-year ban on oil exports.ANDREW CULLEN/REUTERS
BUSINESSOILOIL EXPORTSU.S. ECONOMY
In the past, when faced with financial hardship, the worldās major oil companies have
tried just about everything to stay afloat, dabbling in mobile phones, nuclear, even button manufacturing.
During the 1980s, when the price of a barrel of crude slipped into the $20s, BP bought a dog-food factory, Occidental Petroleum bought Iowa Beef Processors and Gulf Oil considered buying Barnum and Bailey Circus. āWe think food will be in the 1990s, what energy has been in the 1970s and 1980s,ā Occidentalās president, A. Robert Abboud,
trumpeted at the time. Maybe Gulf should have thrown in with the circus after all; BP and Occidental survived but, by the mid-1980s, Gulfās operations were absorbed into Standard Oil of California.
As Big Oil again confronts the prospect of $20 oil for the first time in more than a decade, itās no longer content to fall back on dog meatāinstead itās counting on the repeal of Americaās 40-year ban on oil exports.
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The White House, which had
insisted in October that it āstrongly opposesā eliminating the crude oil export ban, and urged Congress to focus its efforts on āsupporting our transition to a low-carbon economy,ā did an about-face this week, withdrawing a previous veto threat.
The proposal to lift the ban, now the centerpiece of a $1.15 trillion end-of-year spending and tax package to keep the U.S. government running through the 2016 budget year, has yet to be passed by Congress. But it seems the key deals needed to push it through have now been cemented and President Barack Obamaās signature appears assured. This, while oil prices hover in the $30s, but keep testing lower, against the backdrop of a mild U.S. winter and a global oil glut.
Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell from Kentucky said this week Obama and the White House played a pivotal role in the negotiations on Capitol Hill, telling reporters, āThe president in our system is not irrelevant; heās the guy with the pen.ā The repeal of the nationās longtime oil export ban was heralded by Republicans as a ā
huge win,ā sealing the terms of the omnibus spending and tax packageāand a measure for which at least a dozen oil companies have lobbied for years, including Hess, ConocoPhillips and Continental Resources.
In exchange for a deal,
Democrats won five-year extensions on wind and solar credits and a permanent extension of the child care tax credit, successfully defended Obama-mandated environmental regulations that Republicans wanted to roll back and reauthorized a conservation fund.
Ending the ban on oil exportsāimposed in 1975, in the wake of the Arab oil embargo, which led to devastating oil price shocksāremoves what many see as a relic that impedes the progress of the nationās booming energy market. Removing the ban will allow oil producers sell to buyers overseas, not just domestically as they must, by law, do now, says Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at Duke University and an investment strategy adviser for Man Group, the worldās largest listed hedge fund manager and a trader of commodities.
āThe ban creates market friction, and thatās never a good thing,ā he tells
Newsweek, noting that repealing the oil export ban also would give U.S. producers, crushed by weak oil prices in recent years, a much-needed boost. āThe structure of the market is far different today than when this ban was implemented. Itās interfering with market mechanisms and that makes it distortive. Itās hard to see any scenario under which lifting the ban could be bad for U.S.ā
Indeed, critics of the ban feel itās a blight on Americaās free-market principles. But thereās one scenario that might not work out so well for U.S. consumers: If they end up saddled with higher energy prices at home as a result of the U.S. shipping oil to buyers overseas willing to pay more.
A number of lawmakers have assured voters that wonāt happen, such as Senator Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat from North Dakota, a state thatās benefited enormously from shale oil drilling in recent years. āIf people think this is going to drive prices up over $40 a barrel, thatās not my judgment,ā
she observed, noting that high oil inventories are keeping a lid on prices.
History would disagree with Heitkamp. If an oil major can turn a higher profit for oil from an overseas buyer, rather than an American one, the overseas buyer wins. This has been shown time and time again in how the U.S. oil industry already conducts itself in trading refined products, such as gasoline, with other nationsāwhich is legal, and which
has more than tripled in quantity since 2005. U.S. oil producers are also exporting nearly 400,000 barrels of oil a day to Canada under an exemption to the oil-export ban, more than nine times what they sold to the country in 2008, before the nationās energy heyday.
In other words, expect a lot of oil to leave the U.S. if the oil export ban is finally lifted, which will limit any downside for the nationās oil prices, just as it has limited the downside for gasoline.
U.S. producers, which are drowning in oil and cutting rigs and jobs to compensate, have a lot to ship. Oil inventories in the U.S. are set to close out the year near the 500,000-barrel mark (this excludes barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve), which in December grazed the record high set in April. How low do oil inventories need to go before oil prices rebound? āIn the past, it used to be that 300,000 barrels was seen as the benchmark for determining we were getting low,ā says Douglas MacIntyre, director of the office of petroleum and biofuels statistics at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the data branch of the U.S. Department of Energy. That may not be the case today, though, he says. The shale revolution makes it a new world.
This autumn, Goldman Sachs
sounded a warning about the dangers of the nationās high inventories, saying if its āsurplus breaches logistical and storage capacity,ā there could be a collapse in prices to the cost of production. It added, āThe potential for oil prices to fall to such levels, which we estimate near $20 a barrel, is becoming greater as storage continues to fill.ā
John Hess, chief executive of oil and gas company Hess, has argued all year in favor of removing the export ban to relieve the oversupply. āPart of the reason inventory has ballooned is that crude produced in the U.S. is literally trapped here, because American firms are not allowed to sell it overseas,ā he
wrote in an editorial earlier this year.
Republican Representative Kevin Cramer of North Dakota says he plans to vote for the spending and tax package hammered out this week after stressing in recent days that, for national security reasons if nothing else, the U.S. needs to retake its position as a dominant energy superpower. The oil boom āis now being felt far beyond the homes and coffee shops of America,ā he said
in a statement earlier this month, adding, āOur nationās inability to export crude oil threatens our national security as well the safety and security of our allies.ā
Current laws and regulations allow for unlimited exports of refined products like gasoline, but require licensing of crude oil exports. Notably, even as lawmakers and the oil industry urge the repeal of the export ban, net imports to the U.S. continue to represent 26.5 percent of total petroleum and other liquid fuels consumed inside the country in the latest full year of data, 2014. At the same time, this is the lowest percentage on record since 1971.
āIncreased U.S. crude oil production has replaced some crude oil imports, while increased [refining] and global demand growth for petroleum products resulted in increased U.S. petroleum product exports,ā the EIA said in a report this week. āAs a result, the U.S. remains a net importer of crude oil but less so, and is increasingly a net exporter of petroleum products.ā
Pretty soon, it may be a net exporter of crude as well, although how this will affect prices at home remains to be seen. At least until the 2016 driving season, many on Wall Street expect prices to remain under pressure, as Iran prepares to dump barrels on the global market and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries engages in an all-out war for market share.
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āOPEC is no longer the swing producer, U.S. shale is,ā says Adam Crook, managing director at Goldman Sachs in a market note this week. āAnd inventory levels remain at all-time highs. If we have a mild winter in the U.S., we may see further stress in the oil marketā in the first quarter.
In response to requests from Congress and the Obama administration, the EIA did a series of studies and released a
report in September detailing what the effect would be on prices if the U.S. were to repeal the oil export ban. Lynn Westfall, one of the managers of the study and director of the office of energy markets and financial analysis for the EIA, tells
Newsweek that by using its own internal models and working with live data, the EIA concluded that lifting the ban would either lower U.S. refined product pricesāincluding gasolineāor leave them unchanged. This is because as more U.S. oil hits the global market, it should have the effect of putting a lid on prices, he says.
āRight now, domestic crude production is just over 9 million barrels a day,ā Westfall says. āOnce we reach around 11 million to 11.5 million barrels a day of domestic crude, thatās production we will not be able to fully absorb into our refining system.ā The U.S. is about 2 million barrels away from that tipping point, he notes, but if production continues on the same upward trajectory, the U.S. will need to offload some of its barrels.
The oil market has a notoriously short memory and prices can rise, as well as fall, very rapidly. As recently as 2008, oil prices nearly hit $150 a barrel as the nation teetered on the brink of financial collapseāand this was with the oil export ban in place. What will happen if the oil ban is lifted may not be so easy to model, but the fact that Big Oil is so eager to repeal it should give Americans an inkling as to whether it expects to profit.