"....a majority (a growing one) within its area...."
1. The Jewish birth rate was rising steadily, and the Arab birthrate was falling. ...the fertility rate of Jews and Arabs had nearly converged by 2009, to 0.7 births per woman from six more per Arab woman.
a. Most remarkable is that today's "secular" Israeli women show a rate of 2.6, far and away the highest in the industrial world. Their own mothers had a rate of 2.1!
b. Between 1994 and 2009, Arab births in Israel remained steady at 39,000, while Jewish births rose from 80,000 to 120,000. The ultra-religious Jews (8% of the population) have a fertility rate of 8.5, which brings Israeli fertility to 2.9 per woman.
c. At this rate, Israel will have a larger population than Poland by 2085.
“How Civilizations Die,” by David P. Goldman
If everything is going so well demographically, what's all the fuss about. But let's look at reality, that is official statistics. Note: Unlike you I provide a link, to an Israeli site, no less.
"Israel is facing a serious demographic challenge that threatens its future as both a democratic and a Jewish state. There are moral, political, and strategic dangers in preserving the territorial status quo. As leading Israeli demographer Sergio DellaPergola has noted, “Israel cannot remain a majority Jewish, democratic state, by indefinitely controlling the Palestinian territories.” Only a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict can prevent this existential danger from becoming a reality."
"According to official statistics released by Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics in April 2012, Jews now constitute a minority of the people living between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, accounting for 5.9 million of the total 12 million people living under Israeli rule. “From now on, it is an official statistic.”
Within the state of Israel in 2011 the combined growth rate of Jews, non-Arab Christians, and those not classified by religion was 1.7 percent. The growth rate of Arabs was 2.4 percent. By religion, the annual growth rate of Israeli Jews was 1.8 percent and of Israeli Muslims it was 2.5 percent. (Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, “Statistical Abstract of Israel 2012,” No. 63 Subject 2, State of Israel, 92.) Click here to see the report.
Another source similarly finds that, in 2011, the Palestinian population growth rate was 2.5 percent and the population growth rate of Israel was 1.9 percent. (Source: Population Reference Bureau, “Palestinian Territory,” Population Reference Bureau.) Click here to see the report. "
Israel's Demographic Challenge
1. "Note: Unlike you I provide a link, to an Israeli site, no less."
I always give the source. It is right in the post.
Seems you are blinded by hate.
More facts:
a. Hania Zlotnik, director of the population division at the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said “In most of the Islamic world it’s amazing, the decline in fertility that has happened,’’ … From 1975 to 1980, women in Iran were giving birth to nearly 7 children per family, according to the latest U.N. population report; from 2005 to 2010 that number is expected to be less than 2.
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/03/un-sees-big-drop-in-middle-east-fertility-rates/
b. Iranian women who grew up with five or six siblings will bear only one or two children in their lifetimes.
c. By mid-century, the belt of Muslim counties from Morocco to Iran will become as grey as depopulating Europe, and will have the same proportion of dependent elderly as the industrial countries- but with one tenth the productivity!!
2. Today there are 9 Iranians of working age for every elderly dependent. By 2050, at the retirement age for most Iranians, there will be more Iranians in their mid sixties than in any other age bracket: seven elderly for every ten working Iranians. And, this is a nation that has a $4,400 per capita, which is about one-tenth of AmericaÂ’s GDP.
a. While industrial nations are wealthy enough to cushion the impact, and support its elderly- not so with Egypt, Indonesia, Algeria, Iran and Pakistan.
b. Even Turkey, with a semi-modern economy, has only about one quarter the GDP of Europe.
3. Can they reverse the trend? HardlyÂ…the 25-year-oldÂ’s mother had married in her teens, and had several children by this time. The modern Iranian spent the time in school or working- if she can find a job.
4. By the end of the century, Western EuropeÂ’s economically active population will fall by two-fifths, Eastern Europe and East Asia by two-thirds. Russia is facing a demographic death spiral.In the United States, it will grow by about a quarter.
5. While world fertility has fallen by about two children per woman in the past half century (from 4.5 to about 2.5), fertility in the Muslim world has fallen two to three times faster. [Arab, Persian, Turkish, Malay, and South Asian Muslims.]
a. Iranian, six children per woman; Turkish by five; PakistanÂ’s by more than three; Egypt and Indonesia by four. The single largest factor in birth rates in Muslim countries is literacy.
b. Most Muslim countries lack public pension or health care systems. (see
Strengthening Pakistan's Pension and Insurance Systems | Asian Development Bank and
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/...ces/SP-Discussion-papers/Pensions-DP/0014.pdf for example) and rely on children.
6. After literacy, the next largest indicator of family size is religious practice. The more frequently Muslims attend mosque, the more likely they are to have a big family. A third of the 88% literate Turks never attend mosque, as is true of the 82% literate Iranians; in both countries fertility is below replacement. But only a fifth of Egyptians never visit a mosque, and fertility is up to about three.
a. In nations such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Egypt, worship is high, literacy low, fertility rates high, poverty high, unemployment high, social instability high.
b. In nations such as Iran, Turkey, Tunisia, Algeria, there is a high degree of literacy, but face a more devastating degree of social failure in the form of a dearth of children.
7. “While Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's call for women to give birth to at least three children has received the support of some individuals and organizations,Â… “Turkey currently has a young population, but if current trends continue it will be aging by 2038. Western societies are currently facing an aging population problem. Every family should have three children if we wish to preserve TurkeyÂ’s young population.”
Society reacts to PM's call for couples to have 3 kids - Today's Zaman, your gateway to Turkish daily news
a. “…demand for contraceptives went up…” Goldman, “How Civilizations Die,” p. 8.
8. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated a new policy on Tuesday to encourage population growth, dismissing IranÂ’s decades of family planning as ungodly and a Western importÂ….Throughout the 1990s, Iran tried to reduce population growth by encouraging men and women to use free or inexpensive contraceptives, as well as vasectomies. The government brought down the countryÂ’s population growth rate from its 1986 height of 3.9 percent to just 1.6 percent in 2006. Ahmadinejad caused public outcry, however, when shortly after he was elected in 2005 he said two children per family were not enough and urged Iranians to have more.
Iran to pay for new babies to boost population - Salon.com
a. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has urged girls to marry at the age of 16, according to newspaper reports. The leader criticised the current average marrying age of between 24 and 26.
Iran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad urges girls to marry at 16 | World news | The Guardian
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