NCAA Football CFP Thread: My Rankings, and Scenarios

[Mr. Friscus]

The AP Top 25 Came Out, and it looked something like this
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Washington
4. FSU
5. Oregon
6. Ohio St.
7. Texas
8. Alabama

As for me, I have my own method of ranking that looks at all rankings of all teams you've played (ranked 1-133), looks at Big ranked wins but also at top 40 wins. It has the team, the average rank of opponent, and a list of key wins as to why:

1. Georgia (12-0) 61.4 (avg rank of opponent)
Beat #9 Missouri, Beat down #10 Ole Miss, #25 Tennesee, and #40 Kentucky
2. Washington (12-0) 56.6
Barely beat #5 Oregon, Beat #15 Arizona, Barely beat #20 Oregon St, Beat #27 Utah and #35 USC
3. Michigan (12-0) 66.9
Beat #6 Ohio St, Beat #11 Penn St, Beat down #42 UNLV, Beat #48 Maryland
4. Texas (11-1) 52.2
L to #12 OK, Beat #8 Bama, Barely beat #28 KS St., Beat down #29 Kansas, Beat #41 Iowa St.
5. Florida St (12-0) 67.0
Beat down #13 LSU, Beat #31 Clemson, #33 Miami, and #36 Duke.
6. Alabama (11-1) 56.8
L to #7 Texas, Beat #10 Ole Miss, #13 LSU, #25 Tennessee, #38 Tx A&M, and beat down #40 KY
7. Ohio State (11-1) 63.0
L to #2 Michigan, Beat #11 Penn St, barely beat #17 Notre Dame, Beat down #48 Maryland.
8. Oregon (11-1) 62.9
L to #3 Washington, Beat down #20 Oregon St and #27 Utah, Beat #35 USC.

If you agree with the AP, or you agree with me... there are some interesting ways this could all go given the championship games this week, which include (via AP polling)...
SEC Championship: #1 Georgia vs. #8 Alabama
Big 10 Championship: #2 Michigan vs. #19 Iowa
PAC12 Championship: #3 Washington vs. #5 Oregon
ACC Championship: #4 Florida St. vs. #14 Louisville
Big 12 Championship: #7 Texas vs. #16 Oklahoma St.

So what happens if X? Let's do it.

I think the game that could brutally F this whole thing up is if Alabama beat Georgia. If that happened:

• Michigan is pretty much a slam dunk and will likely win, moving to 1.
• A Washington win, keeping them undefeated, puts them clearly at 2 (An Oregon win causes ABSOLUTE chaos as you have 2 one loss PAC teams that have beaten each other)
• Georgia's loss historically SHOULDN'T drop them all the way out of the playoffs from #1, especially losing to Bama.
• Alabama would have a claim to get in having only 1 loss to Texas and just having beaten #1 Georgia for the SEC championship.

So let's back up for second. If that happened, You'd have Michigan, Washington, Georgia, Bama.

Okay, but WTF about Texas if they win the Big 12, and WTF about FSU if they beat Louisville?

The Results that will completely cause chaos are if Bama beats Georgia, and if Oregon beats Washington. Holy crap. Could you imagine if:

• Michigan 13-0
• Georgia 12-1 (L to Bama)
• Bama 12-1 (L to Texas, SEC champ)
• Texas 12-1 (L to #12 OK, Big 12 Champ, toughest schedule)
• Oregon 12-1 (L to Washington, PAC12 Champ)
• Washington 12-1 (L to Oregon)
• FSU 12-1 or 13-0 (easiest schedule, injured QB)
• Ohio St 11-1 (L to #1 Michigan)

Talk about Mayhem.

 

[Winco]

Talk about Mayhem.

Mayhem happens if there are Upsets.

1). UW versus OU. OU is favored. UW is my team. I fully expect OU to win, because Penix is hiding his injury. OU will win.
And it Doesn't matter which team Wins.
The PAC12 Champ will be in the Final 4. FACT.
The Loser of UW/OU is OUT. Fact.

Therefore we have 1 settled participant.
That is the winner of the PAC12 Championship.
The LOSER of this game is OUT, the Winner of this Game is In.

 

[Winco]

Upsets.

Michigan will most likely win, it's like 98%.
Michigan Wins, they are IN.....FACT.

No Upset Here.

So....... Update.

Winner between OU/UW is in, Loser is out.
If Michigan Wins, they are in. FACT
If Michigan loses.....Mayhem exists.

 

[Mr. Friscus]

Mayhem happens if there are Upsets.

1). UW versus OU. OU is favored. UW is my team. I fully expect OU to win, because Penix is hiding his injury. OU will win.
And it Doesn't matter which team Wins.
The PAC12 Champ will be in the Final 4. FACT.
The Loser of UW/OU is OUT. Fact.

Therefore we have 1 settled participant.
That is the winner of the PAC12 Championship.
The LOSER of this game is OUT, the Winner of this Game is In.

You might be right, but what about this:
1. Michigan 13-0
2. Georgia 12-1 (L to Bama)
3. FSU 13-0
4. Texas 12-1

Not crazy. Texas has most impressive schedule and would be Big 12 champ.

In that scenario (where Oregon wins) there’s no PAC team

 

[Winco]

You might be right, but what about this:
1. Michigan 13-0
2. Georgia 12-1 (L to Bama)
3. FSU 13-0
4. Texas 12-1

Not crazy. Texas has most impressive schedule and would be Big 12 champ.

In that scenario (where Oregon wins) there’s no PAC team

OK.
#1. The Pac 12 Champ is in.
I want UW, but if OU wins, they are in.

 

[Winco]

You might be right, but what about this:
1. Michigan 13-0
2. Georgia 12-1 (L to Bama)
3. FSU 13-0
4. Texas 12-1

Not crazy. Texas has most impressive schedule and would be Big 12 champ.

In that scenario (where Oregon wins) there’s no PAC team

The PAC12 Champ is a FACT.
I'll wager any money you can afford on the bet of the PAC12 Champ is in.

There is ZERO chance that a PAC 12 team is not included.

 

[Manonthestreet]

MI is on a mission from god

 

[Winco]

You might be right, but what about this:
1. Michigan 13-0
2. Georgia 12-1 (L to Bama)
3. FSU 13-0
4. Texas 12-1

Not crazy. Texas has most impressive schedule and would be Big 12 champ.

In that scenario (where Oregon wins) there’s no PAC team

NO Way,
The PAC12 Champ, OU or UW is 100% in

 

[Mr. Friscus]

The PAC12 Champ is a FACT.
I'll wager any money you can afford on the bet of the PAC12 Champ is in.

There is ZERO chance that a PAC 12 team is not included.

There’s a chance, albeit not a very good one, but I don’t get this aggression LOL. We’re both observers watching the product. There’s no need to make hyperbolic hot takes like idiots do on ESPN. You’re probably right given the conversation, but if Oregon loses I could make a rational case using reasons (which I did) that it perhaps wouldn’t happen, or would but shouldn’t happen. You’re just making aggressive guarantees for no reason

 

[Couchpotato]

The AP Top 25 Came Out, and it looked something like this
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Washington
4. FSU
5. Oregon
6. Ohio St.
7. Texas
8. Alabama

As for me, I have my own method of ranking that looks at all rankings of all teams you've played (ranked 1-133), looks at Big ranked wins but also at top 40 wins. It has the team, the average rank of opponent, and a list of key wins as to why:

1. Georgia (12-0) 61.4 (avg rank of opponent)
Beat #9 Missouri, Beat down #10 Ole Miss, #25 Tennesee, and #40 Kentucky
2. Washington (12-0) 56.6
Barely beat #5 Oregon, Beat #15 Arizona, Barely beat #20 Oregon St, Beat #27 Utah and #35 USC
3. Michigan (12-0) 66.9
Beat #6 Ohio St, Beat #11 Penn St, Beat down #42 UNLV, Beat #48 Maryland
4. Texas (11-1) 52.2
L to #12 OK, Beat #8 Bama, Barely beat #28 KS St., Beat down #29 Kansas, Beat #41 Iowa St.
5. Florida St (12-0) 67.0
Beat down #13 LSU, Beat #31 Clemson, #33 Miami, and #36 Duke.
6. Alabama (11-1) 56.8
L to #7 Texas, Beat #10 Ole Miss, #13 LSU, #25 Tennessee, #38 Tx A&M, and beat down #40 KY
7. Ohio State (11-1) 63.0
L to #2 Michigan, Beat #11 Penn St, barely beat #17 Notre Dame, Beat down #48 Maryland.
8. Oregon (11-1) 62.9
L to #3 Washington, Beat down #20 Oregon St and #27 Utah, Beat #35 USC.

If you agree with the AP, or you agree with me... there are some interesting ways this could all go given the championship games this week, which include (via AP polling)...
SEC Championship: #1 Georgia vs. #8 Alabama
Big 10 Championship: #2 Michigan vs. #19 Iowa
PAC12 Championship: #3 Washington vs. #5 Oregon
ACC Championship: #4 Florida St. vs. #14 Louisville
Big 12 Championship: #7 Texas vs. #16 Oklahoma St.

So what happens if X? Let's do it.

I think the game that could brutally F this whole thing up is if Alabama beat Georgia. If that happened:

• Michigan is pretty much a slam dunk and will likely win, moving to 1.
• A Washington win, keeping them undefeated, puts them clearly at 2 (An Oregon win causes ABSOLUTE chaos as you have 2 one loss PAC teams that have beaten each other)
• Georgia's loss historically SHOULDN'T drop them all the way out of the playoffs from #1, especially losing to Bama.
• Alabama would have a claim to get in having only 1 loss to Texas and just having beaten #1 Georgia for the SEC championship.

So let's back up for second. If that happened, You'd have Michigan, Washington, Georgia, Bama.

Okay, but WTF about Texas if they win the Big 12, and WTF about FSU if they beat Louisville?

The Results that will completely cause chaos are if Bama beats Georgia, and if Oregon beats Washington. Holy crap. Could you imagine if:

• Michigan 13-0
• Georgia 12-1 (L to Bama)
• Bama 12-1 (L to Texas, SEC champ)
• Texas 12-1 (L to #12 OK, Big 12 Champ, toughest schedule)
• Oregon 12-1 (L to Washington, PAC12 Champ)
• Washington 12-1 (L to Oregon)
• FSU 12-1 or 13-0 (easiest schedule, injured QB)
• Ohio St 11-1 (L to #1 Michigan)

Talk about Mayhem.

The only way there is mayhem is if UGA loses. Otherwise UGA, Mich, PAC 12 Champ, FSU if they are undefeated, or Texas if FSU loses.

If UGA loses they probably put both UGA, and Alabama in with Michigan and the Big12 Champ.

 

[Couchpotato]

There’s a chance, albeit not a very good one, but I don’t get this aggression LOL. We’re both observers watching the product. There’s no need to make hyperbolic hot takes like idiots do on ESPN. You’re probably right given the conversation, but if Oregon loses I could make a rational case using reasons (which I did) that it perhaps wouldn’t happen, or would but shouldn’t happen. You’re just making aggressive guarantees for no reason

Not sure how? The committee putting Oregon at 5 is a clear sign to me that they intend to put the winner of the UW/OU game in the playoff.

 

[22lcidw]

FSU without their best player should not be considered. Unless the backup is competitive, they should get blown out from the most likely number on team of the four when the playoffs begin. Competitive games are needed in the semifinal round.

 

[Mr. Friscus]

Not sure how? The committee putting Oregon at 5 is a clear sign to me that they intend to put the winner of the UW/OU game in the playoff.

If Washington wins they’re in.

If Oregon wins, Washington drops in the rankings to probably 7 or so. So Oregon would have 1 loss to #7. Meanwhile, if Alabama beats Georgia, and Texas wins.. Bama would have 1 loss to a #5 or higher Texas.

So why wouldn’t Alabama get in over Oregon in that scenario? Bama would have better marquee wins, they have a tougher schedule.

 

[Couchpotato]

If Washington wins they’re in.

If Oregon wins, Washington drops in the rankings to probably 7 or so. So Oregon would have 1 loss to #7. Meanwhile, if Alabama beats Georgia, and Texas wins.. Bama would have 1 loss to a #5 or higher Texas.

So why wouldn’t Alabama get in over Oregon in that scenario? Bama would have better marquee wins, they have a tougher schedule.

If Alabama beats UGA. Likely UGA, Mich Alabama and The PAC 12 champ are in. They have Oregon at 5 right now if they beat the #3 team why would the committee jump UT from #7 ahead of them for beating a team ranked in the teens?

 

[Couchpotato]

Mr. Friscus

These are the scenarios that have to play out for each of the teams to get in IMO

UGA Lock. Baring them getting completely demolished they are in regardless of what they do this weekend.
UM Lock. Baring them getting completely demolished they are in regardless of what they do this weekend.
UW Win. Beat OU and they are in
FSU Win and UGA beats Alabama. They will likely be odd man out if the committee puts 2 SEC teams in the playoff
OU Win. Beat UW and they are in
OSU I dont see a scenario where they get in.
UT Win, FSU and Alabama lose.
Alabama Win.

If I had to make a wager,

UGA wins
UM wins
UW Loses
FSU loses
OU wins
UT wins
Alabama loses

So UGA, UM, OU and UT in the playoff.

 

[Mr. Friscus]

If Alabama beats UGA. Likely UGA, Mich Alabama and The PAC 12 champ are in. They have Oregon at 5 right now if they beat the #3 team why would the committee jump UT from #7 ahead of them for beating a team ranked in the teens?

Because if Washington loses, Washington will no longer be #3 when they are making the decision.

Texas beat Bama, in Tuscaloosa.. if Bama wins, they’re up to #4. So Texas would have beaten #4 while Oregon would have beat #6-8, wherever Washington falls for losing.

 

[Couchpotato]

Because if Washington loses, Washington will no longer be #3 when they are making the decision.

Texas beat Bama, in Tuscaloosa.. if Bama wins, they’re up to #4. So Texas would have beaten #4 while Oregon would have beat #6-8, wherever Washington falls for losing.

But Texas will have still lost to a team in the teens.

So the team currently ranked 7th is going jump 4 spots over an undefeated conference champ and a one loss conference champ who just beat a team in the top 4.

Frankly Alabama jumping into the top 4 from 8th based on a single game is a stretch but the committee will do it because SEC and Alabama.

If the committee valued the Alabama win that much (it’s better than any win Oregon has) they would be 5 not Oregon. They didn’t even put them ahead of OSU who has zero shot at getting in.

 

[Mr. Friscus]

But Texas will have still lost to a team in the teens.

So the team currently ranked 7th is going jump 4 spots over an undefeated conference champ and a one loss conference champ who just beat a team in the top 4.

Frankly Alabama jumping into the top 4 from 8th based on a single game is a stretch but the committee will do it because SEC and Alabama.

If the committee valued the Alabama win that much (it’s better than any win Oregon has) they would be 5 not Oregon. They didn’t even put them ahead of OSU who has zero shot at getting in.

I’m differentiating between what will probably happen and what should happen based on consistent standards or established values.

What will happen?

• the national media LOVE Oregon, I don’t get it. They are talking as if Washington is like an afterthought, like Iowa facing Michigan Michigan. I think Oregon is being heavily overrated in credentials by pundits and the media, and the CFP voters will be influenced by this.
• Texas probably is F’d through no fault of their own. They need Georgia to win and FSU to lose, then it’s probably GA, Michigan, Oregon-Wash, and Texas (provided they take care of business). If FSU wins, they will feel an obligation to put FSU in to try to fend off certain critics and try to maintain the illusion of unbiased ranking. We know based on history that’s not true.
• The CFP’s mission statement is to put in “the 4 best teams”. FSU would be double digit underdogs to many teams (GA, Michigan, Oregon at least) given their QB situation and just not being ever considered near the best.

What SHOULD happen?

• GA wins, MI wins, Washington/Oregon winner, and Texas. Texas over FSU because FSU has an easy schedule in comparison and not nearly as many marquee wins. They only have LSU and then drop in stature. Texas L to OK but beat 8 Bama, beat 28 Kansas St, 29 Kansas.
• Bama wins, Mi wins, Oregon wins, FSU wins, Texas wins? It’s Michigan, Oregon, Texas, Georgia.
• Bama wins, Mi, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win? It’s MI, Wash, Texas, GA
• GA win, MI win, Wash win, Texas and FSU win? It’s GA, MI, Wash, Texas IMO

It’s all about 2 games:
GA vs Bama
Wash vs Oregon.

Those 2 dictate everything else

 

[Couchpotato]

I’m differentiating between what will probably happen and what should happen based on consistent standards or established values.

What will happen?

• the national media LOVE Oregon, I don’t get it. They are talking as if Washington is like an afterthought, like Iowa facing Michigan Michigan. I think Oregon is being heavily overrated in credentials by pundits and the media, and the CFP voters will be influenced by this.
• Texas probably is F’d through no fault of their own. They need Georgia to win and FSU to lose, then it’s probably GA, Michigan, Oregon-Wash, and Texas (provided they take care of business). If FSU wins, they will feel an obligation to put FSU in to try to fend off certain critics and try to maintain the illusion of unbiased ranking. We know based on history that’s not true.
• The CFP’s mission statement is to put in “the 4 best teams”. FSU would be double digit underdogs to many teams (GA, Michigan, Oregon at least) given their QB situation and just not being ever considered near the best.

What SHOULD happen?

• GA wins, MI wins, Washington/Oregon winner, and Texas. Texas over FSU because FSU has an easy schedule in comparison and not nearly as many marquee wins. They only have LSU and then drop in stature. Texas L to OK but beat 8 Bama, beat 28 Kansas St, 29 Kansas.
• Bama wins, Mi wins, Oregon wins, FSU wins, Texas wins? It’s Michigan, Oregon, Texas, Georgia.
• Bama wins, Mi, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win? It’s MI, Wash, Texas, GA

If Bama wins they are in. No way the committee will keep the SEC champ out of the CFP and if they can find any reason to put Saban in there they will.

• GA win, MI win, Wash win, Texas and FSU win? It’s GA, MI, Wash, Texas IMO
  
  It’s all about 2 games:
  GA vs Bama
  Wash vs Oregon.
  
  Those 2 dictate everything else

I was posting about what WILL happen the entire time. What should happen is what will happen next year we take this out of the hands of "experts" to decide who gets in the PO's. It been a stupid ass system since before the BCS and hasnt gotten much better. Next year will change that.


The only game being played that has no bearing on who makes the CFP is the UM/Iowa game, unless UM loses by 4 TD's they are going to the CFP.

 

[Mr. Friscus]

If Bama wins they are in. No way the committee will keep the SEC champ out of the CFP and if they can find any reason to put Saban in there they will.



I was posting about what WILL happen the entire time.

And there’s a big difference between the 2. We both know the committee hasn’t been consistent over the years.

What should happen is what will happen next year we take this out of the hands of "experts" to decide who gets in the PO's. It been a stupid ass system since before the BCS and hasnt gotten much better. Next year will change that.

Yeah but they went too far. 8 teams would be perfect, 12 is too much. This year there are clearly 8 top teams, then a drop off