Nate Silver on weakness'of his long-established competition

[rightwinger]

Yes; But 600 votes in this case = 100% of the Presidency. The butterfly ballot in W Palm Beach County was the only reason for Bush. It's mind boggling to think of how much worse off we are because of a stupid ballot. But, be that as it may, Gore should have had an Obama sized victory if you look at the election on paper. He had 8 years of peace and prosperity on his side, Bush couldn't (and still can't) speak in complete sentences, and--oh yeah--wasn't that effective a governor in Texas. Yet he still won. I guess what I'm saying is that one shouldn't underestimate the incumbent fatigue that permeates the incumbent party.

As for the alignment; you're 100% correct on that. It would be interesting to see what Christie would do with New Jersey if he were to become the nominee. I don't think the DNC can count on Wisconsin any longer. It is dominated by suburban Chicago (Obama's home) and whomever the Dems nominate in 2016 won't have that sort of stroke in the dairyland.

The key will be Florida

If Florida turns blue it will be a long time till Republicans see another President. The key to Florida? Hispanic voters. Marco Rubio could carry his own state, few other Republicans can. The upcoming immigration debate will be critical. Can Republicans alienate Hispanics more than they already have?

FL is a Republican state. Many Republicans can carry this state.

In Presidential elections they are a battleground state. With a rising Hispanic population and increased population in the urban areas, they will trend blue.

Republicans will still dominate the northern part of the state, but the power will tip to the south

 

[jillian]

Yes; But 600 votes in this case = 100% of the Presidency. The butterfly ballot in W Palm Beach County was the only reason for Bush. It's mind boggling to think of how much worse off we are because of a stupid ballot. But, be that as it may, Gore should have had an Obama sized victory if you look at the election on paper. He had 8 years of peace and prosperity on his side, Bush couldn't (and still can't) speak in complete sentences, and--oh yeah--wasn't that effective a governor in Texas. Yet he still won. I guess what I'm saying is that one shouldn't underestimate the incumbent fatigue that permeates the incumbent party.

As for the alignment; you're 100% correct on that. It would be interesting to see what Christie would do with New Jersey if he were to become the nominee. I don't think the DNC can count on Wisconsin any longer. It is dominated by suburban Chicago (Obama's home) and whomever the Dems nominate in 2016 won't have that sort of stroke in the dairyland.

The key will be Florida

If Florida turns blue it will be a long time till Republicans see another President. The key to Florida? Hispanic voters. Marco Rubio could carry his own state, few other Republicans can. The upcoming immigration debate will be critical. Can Republicans alienate Hispanics more than they already have?

FL is a Republican state. Many Republicans can carry this state.

And many republicans can carry New York State... but not in presidential elections. In Florida, they're a swing state electorally.. and that's going to become more and more evident with changing demographics.

btw.. their republican governor has a 36% approval rating and a 45% disapproval rating.

Florida (FL) Poll * December 19, 2012 * Florida Voters Dislike Scott A

there's good reasons for those numbers. floridians don't want an extremist governor and scott probably never should have won.

 

[Toro]

The key will be Florida

If Florida turns blue it will be a long time till Republicans see another President. The key to Florida? Hispanic voters. Marco Rubio could carry his own state, few other Republicans can. The upcoming immigration debate will be critical. Can Republicans alienate Hispanics more than they already have?

FL is a Republican state. Many Republicans can carry this state.

And many republicans can carry New York State... but not in presidential elections. In Florida, they're a swing state electorally.. and that's going to become more and more evident with changing demographics.

btw.. their republican governor has a 36% approval rating and a 45% disapproval rating.

Florida (FL) Poll * December 19, 2012 * Florida Voters Dislike Scott A

there's good reasons for those numbers. floridians don't want an extremist governor and scott probably never should have won.

Seniors tend to vote Republican here and always have. They even supported Romney in the election.

FL is really a pinkish state in Presidential politics. Statewide, it is red through and through. The state Democrat party is impotent. Every elected cabinet minister is a Republican as are both chambers of the legislature. The Dems look like they're going to recruit the GOP retread Crist to run against Scott.

Scott rode the wave of the Tea Party in 10. I wouldn't bet against Scott. He hasn't done anything he didn't say he'd do. That's the funny thing about his poll numbers. He did exactly what he said he'd do, nothing more.

And he's promoting businesses to relocate to FL. I've been talking to rich NY and CA types, actively promoting that they should move their businesses here! The highest tax bracket in CA is going to be 57%. That's egregious. They are more receptive than they were a few years back.

 

[candycorn]

He won by approximately 600 votes in the State of Florida with a third party candidate

The alignment of Red/Blue states works against the Republicans. They are way behind before the election even starts

Yes; But 600 votes in this case = 100% of the Presidency. The butterfly ballot in W Palm Beach County was the only reason for Bush. It's mind boggling to think of how much worse off we are because of a stupid ballot. But, be that as it may, Gore should have had an Obama sized victory if you look at the election on paper. He had 8 years of peace and prosperity on his side, Bush couldn't (and still can't) speak in complete sentences, and--oh yeah--wasn't that effective a governor in Texas. Yet he still won. I guess what I'm saying is that one shouldn't underestimate the incumbent fatigue that permeates the incumbent party.

As for the alignment; you're 100% correct on that. It would be interesting to see what Christie would do with New Jersey if he were to become the nominee. I don't think the DNC can count on Wisconsin any longer. It is dominated by suburban Chicago (Obama's home) and whomever the Dems nominate in 2016 won't have that sort of stroke in the dairyland.

The key will be Florida

If Florida turns blue it will be a long time till Republicans see another President. The key to Florida? Hispanic voters. Marco Rubio could carry his own state, few other Republicans can. The upcoming immigration debate will be critical. Can Republicans alienate Hispanics more than they already have?

Yep, it looks VERY good for Rubio. He may have a hard time in other southern states though not to mention the General Election swing states. What will be interesting is how he decides to run in 2016 GOP primaries. Interesting in two ways:

First, the Florida Primary (this year) was on January 31. It came after IA, NH, and SC. As you will recall supposed heavyweight Rick Perry didn't make it to the 31st; neither did Cain, Bachman, or Huntsman if I recall. Rubio will have a hard time selling himself in Iowa in a crowded field. Also remember that Obama is a bit of an outlier; the path to POTUS usually doesn't go through the Senate directly. If the GOP wishes, it could move-up the Florida primary before SC and perhaps consolidate the electorate behind a clear front-runner early.

The second thing that I would find interesting from the GOP primary perspective is whether Jeb Bush gets into the running. Who wins between he and Rubio? I'm guessing Jeb.

 

[rightwinger]

Yes; But 600 votes in this case = 100% of the Presidency. The butterfly ballot in W Palm Beach County was the only reason for Bush. It's mind boggling to think of how much worse off we are because of a stupid ballot. But, be that as it may, Gore should have had an Obama sized victory if you look at the election on paper. He had 8 years of peace and prosperity on his side, Bush couldn't (and still can't) speak in complete sentences, and--oh yeah--wasn't that effective a governor in Texas. Yet he still won. I guess what I'm saying is that one shouldn't underestimate the incumbent fatigue that permeates the incumbent party.

As for the alignment; you're 100% correct on that. It would be interesting to see what Christie would do with New Jersey if he were to become the nominee. I don't think the DNC can count on Wisconsin any longer. It is dominated by suburban Chicago (Obama's home) and whomever the Dems nominate in 2016 won't have that sort of stroke in the dairyland.

The key will be Florida

If Florida turns blue it will be a long time till Republicans see another President. The key to Florida? Hispanic voters. Marco Rubio could carry his own state, few other Republicans can. The upcoming immigration debate will be critical. Can Republicans alienate Hispanics more than they already have?

Yep, it looks VERY good for Rubio. He may have a hard time in other southern states though not to mention the General Election swing states. What will be interesting is how he decides to run in 2016 GOP primaries. Interesting in two ways:

First, the Florida Primary (this year) was on January 31. It came after IA, NH, and SC. As you will recall supposed heavyweight Rick Perry didn't make it to the 31st; neither did Cain, Bachman, or Huntsman if I recall. Rubio will have a hard time selling himself in Iowa in a crowded field. Also remember that Obama is a bit of an outlier; the path to POTUS usually doesn't go through the Senate directly. If the GOP wishes, it could move-up the Florida primary before SC and perhaps consolidate the electorate behind a clear front-runner early.

The second thing that I would find interesting from the GOP primary perspective is whether Jeb Bush gets into the running. Who wins between he and Rubio? I'm guessing Jeb.

I think Jeb would have broader support among Republicans

 

[konradv]

He won by approximately 600 votes in the State of Florida with a third party candidate

The alignment of Red/Blue states works against the Republicans. They are way behind before the election even starts

Had that douchebag Ralph Nader not run, Gore would have won Florida by a couple ten thousand votes.

Of course, its hard to feel too bad for a guy who lost his home state.

Buchanan got too many votes in W Palm due to the ballot quirk. That is what did Gore in more than Nader in my view.

Actually, if only 1/3 of the Nader voters in NH(~7,500) had voted for Gore, FL wouldn't have mattered.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Calling the election by using the polls didn't require any particular brilliance. You only had to be smart enough to recognize the fact that the state by state poll averages are rarely off by much.

Having said that, it is amazing how many conservatives were not smart enough to accomplish that.

 

[rightwinger]

Calling the election by using the polls didn't require any particular brilliance. You only had to be smart enough to recognize the fact that the state by state poll averages are rarely off by much.

Having said that, it is amazing how many conservatives were not smart enough to accomplish that.

They were in total denial. They were offered reason after reason why the polls were wrong and they jumped at them

From the lowly Fox viewer to Mitt Romney himself

 

[Toro]

Calling the election by using the polls didn't require any particular brilliance. You only had to be smart enough to recognize the fact that the state by state poll averages are rarely off by much.

Having said that, it is amazing how many conservatives were not smart enough to accomplish that.

They were in total denial. They were offered reason after reason why the polls were wrong and they jumped at them

From the lowly Fox viewer to Mitt Romney himself

I don't think I've ever seen such massive denial in my life.

 

[Dot Com]

I think Jeb would have broader support among Republicans

not so sure about that. Wasn't he saying moderate/rational things as of late even pre- election?
Jeb Bush Questions G.O.P.’s Shift to the Right

But tough talk about the state of the party on Monday by former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida — who went so far as to say that Ronald Reagan and his father would have a “hard time” fitting in during this Tea Party era

Jeb Bush: 2012 GOP Field "Appealing to People's Fears"

"I used to be a conservative and I watch these debates and I'm wondering, I don't think I've changed, but it's a little troubling sometimes when people are appealing to people's fears and emotion rather than trying to get them to look over the horizon for a broader perspective and that's kind of where we are," said the former Florida Governor. "I think it changes when we get to the general election. I hope."

 

[rightwinger]

I think Jeb would have broader support among Republicans

not so sure about that. Wasn't he saying moderate/rational things as of late even pre- election?
Jeb Bush Questions G.O.P.’s Shift to the Right

But tough talk about the state of the party on Monday by former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida — who went so far as to say that Ronald Reagan and his father would have a “hard time” fitting in during this Tea Party era

Jeb Bush: 2012 GOP Field "Appealing to People's Fears"

"I used to be a conservative and I watch these debates and I'm wondering, I don't think I've changed, but it's a little troubling sometimes when people are appealing to people's fears and emotion rather than trying to get them to look over the horizon for a broader perspective and that's kind of where we are," said the former Florida Governor. "I think it changes when we get to the general election. I hope."

The problem with the GOP nomination process is that they know that in the end, they will select a moderate. Conservatives are just too bat shit crazy for mainstream America

But conservatives stick around in the primary process long enough to force moderate Republicans to pander to them on taxes, abortion, gay rights, global warming and other doctrinal standards. The eventual Republican candidate comes out of the process with enough sound bites for the Democrats to bury him

 

[Dot Com]

The pic of Nate looks just like an avg hard working guy.
Nate Silver

he showed the pundits

 

[candycorn]

The key will be Florida

If Florida turns blue it will be a long time till Republicans see another President. The key to Florida? Hispanic voters. Marco Rubio could carry his own state, few other Republicans can. The upcoming immigration debate will be critical. Can Republicans alienate Hispanics more than they already have?

Yep, it looks VERY good for Rubio. He may have a hard time in other southern states though not to mention the General Election swing states. What will be interesting is how he decides to run in 2016 GOP primaries. Interesting in two ways:

First, the Florida Primary (this year) was on January 31. It came after IA, NH, and SC. As you will recall supposed heavyweight Rick Perry didn't make it to the 31st; neither did Cain, Bachman, or Huntsman if I recall. Rubio will have a hard time selling himself in Iowa in a crowded field. Also remember that Obama is a bit of an outlier; the path to POTUS usually doesn't go through the Senate directly. If the GOP wishes, it could move-up the Florida primary before SC and perhaps consolidate the electorate behind a clear front-runner early.

The second thing that I would find interesting from the GOP primary perspective is whether Jeb Bush gets into the running. Who wins between he and Rubio? I'm guessing Jeb.

I think Jeb would have broader support among Republicans

I don't know if I agree with that. He's somewhat tarnished by his brother's act while he was in the Oval. It may be the case of Bush being a political warhead where Rubio is concerned. He's just popular enough in all of the wrong places for a Rubio insurgency. Jeb Bush is big with Hispanics and more directly, Florida Hispanics.

Nationwide, Bush certainly has more name recognition but how good is the "Bush" name these days in the era of purportedly wanting smaller government?

 

[candycorn]

Calling the election by using the polls didn't require any particular brilliance. You only had to be smart enough to recognize the fact that the state by state poll averages are rarely off by much.

Having said that, it is amazing how many conservatives were not smart enough to accomplish that.

Politics can make people do and say strange things. I'm sure that if the contest were something apolitical, the conservative whackjobs would have just accepted the polling data.

I honestly believe that a black man being elected President has rocked their world to the point where they question reality when it comes to politics.