My predictions of house and senate for 2026 midterms

[Hurricanelover]

My predictions of house and senate for 2026 midterms.
April 19th:
House 232 for Democrats. 94% of victory.
Senate 52 seats for Republicans. 62% of victory.

Possibly every month I'll update this.

 

[luiza]

I will offer 1/100 that there will be an idiot trying to forecast the results -- a buffoon who thinks he can out-forecast Nate Silver .
Not that Nate is infallible, now that fluctuating Geo Political matters are assuming such a key analysis area .

 

[Hurricanelover]

I will offer 1/100 that there will be an idiot trying to forecast the results -- a buffoon who thinks he can out-forecast Nate Silver .
Not that Nate is infallible, now that fluctuating Geo Political matters are assuming such a key analysis area .

I will admit that this country has shifted quite a bit to the right. My theory is metoo and blm pissed people the **** off and made them turn against everything the left was offering. I kind of agree and I am gay...So I understand. I just hope we can continue to have rights and ability to live our lives. If this was 2018 I'd be predicting 250 in the house and 60% democrat getting back the senate.

I am afraid my numbers are slightly too favorable to the democrats but fingers crossed.

 

[schmidlap]

I will admit that this country has shifted quite a bit to the right. My theory is metoo and blm pissed people the **** off and made them turn against everything the left was offering. I kind of agree and I am gay...So I understand. I just hope we can continue to have rights and ability to live our lives. If this was 2018 I'd be predicting 250 in the house and 60% democrat getting back the senate.

I am afraid my numbers are slightly too favorable to the democrats but fingers crossed.

It'll come down to the price of a gallon of gasoline over the next few months.

 

[schmidlap]

The November elections will be determined, not by the party partisans, but by the pragmatists:

​

...The strategic challenge for Republican campaigns is not the Iran war itself. It is that the war has become the lens through which independent voters are re-evaluating everything they assumed about this administration's domestic priorities. Campaigns that treat Iran as a foreign policy debate to be won are fighting the wrong argument. The voter who flipped a Trump-won district seat in a 2025 special election and the voter reconsidering her congressional ballot today are both making the same calculation: what is this costing me, and is anyone on this ballot actually talking about it...​

 

[Hurricanelover]

As of May 12th
I'll predict Republican senate with 51 seats and Democrat house with 226.
68% for republicans to hold senate
84% chance of Democrats getting the house