My chart evaluation for this week (8/25/2024). Free of charge as a gift to you.

[Luckyone]

Market Y0-Yo's this week as Emotions run rampant....on both sides.​

DOW Friday Closing Price - 41175
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5634
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 19720
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2218

This past week was all emotional trading. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the yearly numbers on Thursday and they were revised down by 818,000 jobs. This meant that the economy was in worse shape than was expected previously. The indexes made a new rally high on the news and then proceeded to reverse and make a new 3-day low. Fed Chief Powell talked on Friday and he clearly suggested that it was "time to" start cutting rates. The index market rallied strongly on that news and the DOW and the RUT made new rally highs and the SPX and NASDAQ recovered most of what was lost on Thursday. As such, the news was bad and then good and the traders reacted emotionally but now find themselves in a quandary as to what is going to happen from here on out.

What do the chart say and how will the computers and algorithms look at this? Well to begin with, the all-time intraweek highs in all the 3 main indexes are still major barriers that should not get broken under any situation, unless the emotions run so strong that they get broken for a short period of time. In the DOW that level is at 41376 (200 points higher from Friday's close), in the SPX that level is at 5669 (35 points above), and in the NASADAQ, that level is at 20690 (970 points above). Evidently and based on the fact this rally is more emotional than anything and the DOW represents "safe" stocks, the traders will key on this index. Being only 200 points away from that high, it is evident that level can be in play this week.

Having said that, what the traders will also key on this week, especially since the following week September begins (and that is a seasonal down month where it is difficult to see the indexes making new all-time highs) is whether they can make August a positive month or simply a so-so month as is usual seasonally. What I mean by this, is that the bears can ill afford to allow the indexes to close anywhere near the high of the month this Friday, or September will start on a positive note. This means that the traders will be looking at levels below that could be catalysts where if broken, they would automatically generate selling. In that respect, Thursday's intraweek lows will be the triggers. In the DOW, that level is at 40584, in the SPX that level is at 5560, and in the NASDAQ that level is at 19459.

This is what this market is looking at this week, given the nature of the news and what happened last week chart-wise. This week is all about charts and nothing else. The fundamental news is out and none of it is clear (will inflation hold here or continue lower?, is the economy faltering more than anticipated or not?, will the Fed cut rates 25 points or 50 points? None of that will be answered this week and as such and at the levels that the indexes are at and with September around the corner, something is likely to break (to the upside or the downside). One thing that has to be tilting the minds of the traders to the downside is the NASDAQ, that has underperformed the market and in a bull situation, that is not likely to be the case.

That is all I have for this week's indexes chart analysis. It really is all down to this simple scenario.

 

[Oddball]

In terms of a USD that is worth 20% less than it was 3 1/2 years ago.

Your sock puppet sauce is weaker than ever, Wanker.

 

[The Duke]

Market Y0-Yo's this week as Emotions run rampant....on both sides.​

DOW Friday Closing Price - 41175
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5634
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 19720
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2218

This past week was all emotional trading. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the yearly numbers on Thursday and they were revised down by 818,000 jobs. This meant that the economy was in worse shape than was expected previously. The indexes made a new rally high on the news and then proceeded to reverse and make a new 3-day low. Fed Chief Powell talked on Friday and he clearly suggested that it was "time to" start cutting rates. The index market rallied strongly on that news and the DOW and the RUT made new rally highs and the SPX and NASDAQ recovered most of what was lost on Thursday. As such, the news was bad and then good and the traders reacted emotionally but now find themselves in a quandary as to what is going to happen from here on out.

What do the chart say and how will the computers and algorithms look at this? Well to begin with, the all-time intraweek highs in all the 3 main indexes are still major barriers that should not get broken under any situation, unless the emotions run so strong that they get broken for a short period of time. In the DOW that level is at 41376 (200 points higher from Friday's close), in the SPX that level is at 5669 (35 points above), and in the NASADAQ, that level is at 20690 (970 points above). Evidently and based on the fact this rally is more emotional than anything and the DOW represents "safe" stocks, the traders will key on this index. Being only 200 points away from that high, it is evident that level can be in play this week.

Having said that, what the traders will also key on this week, especially since the following week September begins (and that is a seasonal down month where it is difficult to see the indexes making new all-time highs) is whether they can make August a positive month or simply a so-so month as is usual seasonally. What I mean by this, is that the bears can ill afford to allow the indexes to close anywhere near the high of the month this Friday, or September will start on a positive note. This means that the traders will be looking at levels below that could be catalysts where if broken, they would automatically generate selling. In that respect, Thursday's intraweek lows will be the triggers. In the DOW, that level is at 40584, in the SPX that level is at 5560, and in the NASDAQ that level is at 19459.

This is what this market is looking at this week, given the nature of the news and what happened last week chart-wise. This week is all about charts and nothing else. The fundamental news is out and none of it is clear (will inflation hold here or continue lower?, is the economy faltering more than anticipated or not?, will the Fed cut rates 25 points or 50 points? None of that will be answered this week and as such and at the levels that the indexes are at and with September around the corner, something is likely to break (to the upside or the downside). One thing that has to be tilting the minds of the traders to the downside is the NASDAQ, that has underperformed the market and in a bull situation, that is not likely to be the case.

That is all I have for this week's indexes chart analysis. It really is all down to this simple scenario.

I bet you ain't got ary a dollar in the market, Market Boi.

 

[Darkwind]

Good. A rising tide floats all boats, and there is a boatload of people who have retirement stakes in the market continuing to outperform Social Security.

 

[Luckyone]

I bet you ain't got ary a dollar in the market, Market Boi.

That is hilarious. I have been trading for 47 years. I was an analyst with Merrill Lynch and Pru-Bache in the 80's and since 2005 (since I retired), I have lived and paid by bills with my trading.

I am amazed that after reading what I wrote that you could even think that. That certainly says a lot about you

 

[The Duke]

That is hilarious. I have been trading for 47 years. I was an analyst with Merrill Lynch and Pru-Bache in the 80's and since 2005 (since I retired), I have lived and paid by bills with my trading.

I am amazed that after reading what I wrote that you could even think that. That certainly says a lot about you

I didn't realize you wrote that.

 

[Luckyone]

I didn't realize you wrote that.

I have had a subscriber service for 17 years and this was my 874th newsletter.

 

[The Duke]

I have had a subscriber service for 17 years and this was my 874th newsletter.

That does cast you in a different light. You're still a leftist schnook, though.
An election year leftist schnook.

 

[Luckyone]

That does cast you in a different light. You're still a leftist schnook, though.
An election year leftist schnook.

If you call someone that believes in morals, ethics, principles and humanity a "leftist schnook", then yes, I am. Nonetheless, what does that make those that call me that? People that do not believe in morals, ethics, principles or humanity?

You do need to keep in mind that I am NOT against the Republican party. I am against the TRUMP party and that is because Trump is garbage as a HUMAN BEING and those that believe in him BLINDLY, are the same. Key word is "blindly"

My accountant of 40 years believes in what Trump was trying to do with the Republican platform. I absolutely adore, respect, and value my accountant as he is a man full of morals, ethics, principles and humanity. We are at odds as far as the election is concerned, but that has not damaged our friendship at all. He understands that Trump is a piece of shit but he wants the Republican platform to win. I have nothing against the Republican platform, I just know that Trump is not only a piece of shit individual but worse, he is incompetent and not likely to be able to accomplish what the Republicans want to accomplish. He is going to create chaos, and that is never a good thing.

 

[Andrew_Jackson_FTW]

You are right. I did not realize I did that. I have gotten more than 450 messages in 3 days and it is hard to keep up where they are and come from

What are your thoughts on cryptocurrency.

People have made millions of dollars buying low selling high.

Talk On the street is that Ethereum can hit 4500 by the end of the year?

 

[Luckyone]

What are your thoughts on cryptocurrency.

People have made millions of dollars buying low selling high.

Talk On the street is that Ethereum can hit 4500 by the end of the year?

On Bitcoin, the chart is presently favoring the bulls, though for the past 5 months the rally has stalled. Friday is the close for the month and if on Friday Bitcoin closes below 60836, it will be a negative that will likely change the chart to favor the bears. Presently (today), it is trading at 62472.

The Ethereum chart is bearish right now and likely heading down to the $1927 level (presently at $2632.). At the present time, $4500 is not a possibility at all. The fundamental picture would need to change for that to happen. Chart does not suggest it can get above $2937 for the rest of the year.

Good Luck

 

[Andrew_Jackson_FTW]

On Bitcoin, the chart is presently favoring the bulls, though for the past 5 months the rally has stalled. Friday is the close for the month and if on Friday Bitcoin closes below 60836, it will be a negative that will likely change the chart to favor the bears. Presently (today), it is trading at 62472.

The Ethereum chart is bearish right now and likely heading down to the $1927 level (presently at $2632.). At the present time, $4500 is not a possibility at all. The fundamental picture would need to change for that to happen. Chart does not suggest it can get above $2937 for the rest of the year.

Good Luck

Seems like your bearish…It should be interesting

Many experts envision ETH reaching a valuation of $40,000 by 2030. While this might seem ambitious, it is not entirely implausible. Several compelling factors, such as its comprehensive market strategy, unique model, scalability solutions, and leadership in various decentralized applications, have positioned ETH at the forefront of the cryptocurrency landscape.

Ethereum Overview​

Market Price	$2,634
Price Change 7 days	0.33%
Market Capitalization	$316.71 billion
Circulating Supply	120.29 million ETH
Volume (24h)	4.02%
All-Time High	$4891.70
All-Time Low	$0.4209
(As of August 22, 2024)
Source: CoinMarketCap

Key Use Cases of Ethereum​

Ethereum has played a vital role in expanding blockchain technology, offering blockchain projects, faster transactions, enhanced efficiency, and decentralized applications to industries across the globe. Let’s take a look at the key use cases of ETH, which are extensive and expanding at a breakneck pace:

1. Decentralized Finance (De-Fi)
2. Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs)
3. Smart Contracts
4. Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs)
5. Decentralized apps or Dapps.

In short, there are many sectors in which Ethereum is creating value and offering utility. Industries, from entertainment to real estate and even the healthcare sector, are creating apps and tools based on the blockchain solutions provided by ETH.“

Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction For The Year 2024, 2025 And 2030

In virtual or digital assets, people often talk about the trending and most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. Still, they also closely monitor Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency. There is no doubt that ETH is overshadowed by the world’s largest cryptocurrency BTC, but indeed, it has

www.forbes.com

 

[Luckyone]

Seems like your bearish…It should be interesting

Many experts envision ETH reaching a valuation of $40,000 by 2030. While this might seem ambitious, it is not entirely implausible. Several compelling factors, such as its comprehensive market strategy, unique model, scalability solutions, and leadership in various decentralized applications, have positioned ETH at the forefront of the cryptocurrency landscape.

Ethereum Overview​

Market Price	$2,634
Price Change 7 days	0.33%
Market Capitalization	$316.71 billion
Circulating Supply	120.29 million ETH
Volume (24h)	4.02%
All-Time High	$4891.70
All-Time Low	$0.4209
(As of August 22, 2024)
Source: CoinMarketCap

Key Use Cases of Ethereum​

Ethereum has played a vital role in expanding blockchain technology, offering blockchain projects, faster transactions, enhanced efficiency, and decentralized applications to industries across the globe. Let’s take a look at the key use cases of ETH, which are extensive and expanding at a breakneck pace:

1. Decentralized Finance (De-Fi)
2. Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs)
3. Smart Contracts
4. Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs)
5. Decentralized apps or Dapps.

In short, there are many sectors in which Ethereum is creating value and offering utility. Industries, from entertainment to real estate and even the healthcare sector, are creating apps and tools based on the blockchain solutions provided by ETH.“

Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction For The Year 2024, 2025 And 2030

In virtual or digital assets, people often talk about the trending and most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. Still, they also closely monitor Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency. There is no doubt that ETH is overshadowed by the world’s largest cryptocurrency BTC, but indeed, it has

www.forbes.com

Let me explain something about me.

I follow the money as the big money have more information than you or I could ever get. In addition, they put their money where their knowledge is.

Charts tell me what the big money is doing as they are the ones that move the money (you and I buying or selling is not going to move the market 1 inch).

As such, I don't read much, especially since statistics show that the large portion of investors lose money and yet every one of those losers is able to read the same information that you are reading and supplying.

I follow the big money. They tell me (through the charts) what they know.

 

[MarathonMike]

In terms of a USD that is worth 20% less than it was 3 1/2 years ago.

Your sock puppet sauce is weaker than ever, Wanker.

Aha I thought this "newbie" seemed a lot like The Banker right down to his lame avatar.

 

[Andrew_Jackson_FTW]

Let me explain something about me.

I follow the money as the big money have more information than you or I could ever get. In addition, they put their money where their knowledge is.

Charts tell me what the big money is doing as they are the ones that move the money (you and I buying or selling is not going to move the market 1 inch).

As such, I don't read much, especially since statistics show that the large portion of investors lose money and yet every one of those losers is able to read the same information that you are reading and supplying.

I follow the big money. They tell me (through the charts) what they know.

I understand that. But also Forbes and other analysis are looking at charts too.

But there’s something else to consider, regardless of the charts anybody is looking at. And that is a possibility of a major event in the world …ie a world war, a natural disaster or something of that nature. People can not always predict that.

There’s also the possibility of a big financial merger or a company acquiring something …and that’s not something charts take into consideration.

 

[Luckyone]

I understand that. But also Forbes and other analysis are looking at charts too.

But there’s something else to consider, regardless of the charts anybody is looking at. And that is a possibility of a major event in the world …ie a world war, a natural disaster or something of that nature. People can not always predict that.

There’s also the possibility of a big financial merger or a company acquiring something …and that’s not something charts take into consideration.

Look, there is one thing you may not know or know what it means

70% of all trading is done by computers and algorithms and they trade every day and they do affect the market, as long as the fundamental picture does not change. The fundamental picture may change during the year but not more than a few times.

Even then, the big money has more of a step on the news than you or I. In many cases it can be inside information. As such, I don't try to speculate on what is going to happen. I like to follow the big money as they will ALWAYS know more than I do (100% of the time).

One additional thing to understand. People by nature have egos and the egos make them not want to be wrong (people want to be right). Computers, algorithm, and big traders (that often trade each day) look at it differently. They don't care about their egos and they don't care about being right or wrong. What they care about is "making more money than is lost when it is all said and done"

I average 180 trades a year and my average of being right is about 50% of the time. Nonetheless and due to the fact that I never trade anything that does not offer me at least a 4-1 risk to reward ratio (based on the established chart support and resistance levels, which are used by computers and algorithms), my year end results have been positive on 14 of the last 17 years. And actually, it should be 16 out of the last 17 years because on 2 of the 3 years I had losing years was because I got "married" to a stock fundamentally and yet the charts had told me to get out way before I did.

This is what the computers and algorithms do and the way they trade.

 

[Andrew_Jackson_FTW]

Look, there is one thing you may not know or know what it means

70% of all trading is done by computers and algorithms and they trade every day and they do affect the market, as long as the fundamental picture does not change. The fundamental picture may change during the year but not more than a few times.

Even then, the big money has more of a step on the news than you or I. In many cases it can be inside information. As such, I don't try to speculate on what is going to happen. I like to follow the big money as they will ALWAYS know more than I do (100% of the time).

One additional thing to understand. People by nature have egos and the egos make them not want to be wrong (people want to be right). Computers, algorithm, and big traders (that often trade each day) look at it differently. They don't care about their egos and they don't care about being right or wrong. What they care about is "making more money than is lost when it is all said and done"

I average 180 trades a year and my average of being right is about 50% of the time. Nonetheless and due to the fact that I never trade anything that does not offer me at least a 4-1 risk to reward ratio (based on the established chart support and resistance levels, which are used by computers and algorithms), my year end results have been positive on 14 of the last 17 years. And actually, it should be 16 out of the last 17 years because on 2 of the 3 years I had losing years was because I got "married" to a stock fundamentally and yet the charts had told me to get out way before I did.

This is what the computers and algorithms do and the way they trade.

I respect your knowledge which is more than mine. I have only recently invested in the stocks and it is not my main source of income. It’s really something I’m doing on the side. I have a long-term plan with the S&P 500. And the best I’ve done with the stock is about a 100% return with SE limited in 6 months , which is the Amazon of Singapore.

And I agree that big money probably has insider information. A lot of stocks are owned by 90 % + non-retail investors. Retail investors meaning every day people perhaps like myself or you… they’re not part of some big hedge fund. Although you’re probably not the normal retail investor from what it sounds like.

. that being said the algorithms and the computers play a major role. But when there is breaking news or a big surprise, like for example, when the CEO of chipotle stepped down recently and accepted the CEO position at Starbucks the Starbucks stock went up 25% in one day. Sure some people may have had inside info on that. But there’s no way every hedge fund knew about it. So in a time period of an hour or so peoples portfolio if they had Starbucks went way way up and there is no chart or algorithm that could’ve predicted that.

There’s also just feeling things out. Like when that Lunatic tried to assassinate Trump most people knew that the stock of the DJT at least momentarily would shoot up and it did by about 40% before tanking down. So there’s those things as well.

 

[Luckyone]

I respect your knowledge which is more than mine. I have only recently invested in the stocks and it is not my main source of income. It’s really something I’m doing on the side. I have a long-term plan with the S&P 500. And the best I’ve done with the stock is about a 100% return with SE limited in 6 months , which is the Amazon of Singapore.

And I agree that big money probably has insider information. A lot of stocks are owned by 90 % + non-retail investors. Retail investors meaning every day people perhaps like myself or you… they’re not part of some big hedge fund. Although you’re probably not the normal retail investor from what it sounds like.

. that being said the algorithms and the computers play a major role. But when there is breaking news or a big surprise, like for example, when the CEO of chipotle stepped down recently and accepted the CEO position at Starbucks the Starbucks stock went up 25% in one day. Sure some people may have had inside info on that. But there’s no way every hedge fund knew about it. So in a time period of an hour or so peoples portfolio if they had Starbucks went way way up and there is no chart or algorithm that could’ve predicted that.

There’s also just feeling things out. Like when that Lunatic tried to assassinate Trump most people knew that the stock of the DJT at least momentarily would shoot up and it did by about 40% before tanking down. So there’s those things as well.

Yes, those unexpected things do happen and they do cause problems to the computers/algorithms/traders but then, most of the time, they don't happen and the big money makes profits most of the time.

 

[Stryder50]

If you call someone that believes in morals, ethics, principles and humanity a "leftist schnook", then yes, I am. Nonetheless, what does that make those that call me that? People that do not believe in morals, ethics, principles or humanity?

You do need to keep in mind that I am NOT against the Republican party. I am against the TRUMP party and that is because Trump is garbage as a HUMAN BEING and those that believe in him BLINDLY, are the same. Key word is "blindly"

My accountant of 40 years believes in what Trump was trying to do with the Republican platform. I absolutely adore, respect, and value my accountant as he is a man full of morals, ethics, principles and humanity. We are at odds as far as the election is concerned, but that has not damaged our friendship at all. He understands that Trump is a piece of shit but he wants the Republican platform to win. I have nothing against the Republican platform, I just know that Trump is not only a piece of shit individual but worse, he is incompetent and not likely to be able to accomplish what the Republicans want to accomplish. He is going to create chaos, and that is never a good thing.

Thing is the difference in "morals, ethics, principles, and humanity" as defined, interpreted, and applied by various individuals and cultures.
There is no common, universally accepted definition of those things.
The leftist definitions seldom match the rightist definitions.