Medicines that defeat aging have at least a 50% chance of being developed within the next 20 years

shockedcanadian

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This was sent to me on another forum. I don't know about this site, but, it's an interesting read.

I've been trying to find how I can contribute to this discipline as an amateur AI/Machine Learning practioner (also interested in nooptropic science and such). I've only found some research papers regarding longevity but I wasn't impressed with their methodology or hypothesis .

Sounded like research students simply working through the data to fulfill a grant, instead of a serious scientists pushing current science. I am quite comfortable with particular algorithms and preprocessing data and feature engineering, but, it's the quality of data on this subject that is lacking. For such a subject, you won't find access to the medical data online in great volume.

I'm convinced that data and getting a machine to delve through a Unsupervised Environment will produce critical understandings in this area. Along with Reinforcement Learning if we run the networks for weeks at a time, let the algorithms in the Black Box work it out. At the very least, guide future, promising directions.

I'd love to be working on such an objective, but the power needed is thousands of dollars for high end GPU, or more for cloud resource rental, is just not feasible for an individual in a trial and error method as an amateur. This subject matter will require a huge effort.

A current somewhat serious subject I worked on lead me to analyze data that went back 50 years that gleaned some information about government expenditure across a number of sector, it's contribution to GDP per capita, Economic Freedom (or, if it was an unwise use of resources). Ultimately though, what benefit would it be for me when I'm not some guy interested in just passing on my efforts? I'm not in government advising and they haven't exactly been in my corner, so, it would at best, be shredded.

Long story short, we are going to have ways to extend life and live longer, there's too much research on it all from foods, lifestyle and success in mice/pigs, etc. It will eventually be nothing more than a supplement or a cold pill once it is perfected.

Below is what two such dreamers believe, there are more pages with the article:

Should Defeating Aging Be Humanity’s Foremost Priority?

My contention that defeating aging should be humanity’s foremost priority rests on three statements that jointly imply it:
1) Humanity's foremost priority should be the goal that will most greatly reduce the totality of human suffering, scaled by the currently perceived probability distribution of how soon (if at all) the goal will be achieved if humanity tries really hard.

2) Aging causes most of the suffering experienced by humanity at present, and will with high probability continue to do so until it is defeated. Here I define "defeating aging" as the development, and availability to most of humanity, of medicine that mostly if not wholly eliminates the decline in physical and mental function associated with getting older.

3) Medicines that defeat aging have at least a 50% chance of being developed within the next 20 years, and given the discussion of their value that will almost certainly occur in the years preceding their arrival they will with at least 90% probability be made available to most people old enough to need them within five years following their arrival.

Regarding (1), arguments for or against utilitarianism far exceed my philosophical pay grade, so the only feature I will address is whether equal amounts of suffering of two people of different ages matter equally. Two arguable reasons exist today to give the younger person priority for life-saving medicine: it can help the younger person more, and the younger person has had less opportunity to enjoy life. But these both fail when we consider the defeat of aging: the former will simply be false, and the latter becomes negligible because both people have the expectation of far more life ahead of them than behind them.

Regarding (2), we must remember that longevity is not the goal of defeating aging but merely a side-benefit. The suffering arising from aging mostly consists of the decrepitude, dependence and disease that the elderly endure before death, the vicarious suffering of their loved ones and the indirect suffering arising from the economic burden that today's (slight) minimisation of that suffering imposes on society. Sadness arising from an elderly person's death constitutes only a minor contribution. So the important statistic, I claim, is not that most deaths are due to aging but that most sickness is.

Regarding (3), the biomedical research underlying my timeframe estimate would greatly exceed 5000 words let alone 500, so you'll just have to trust me. As for availability, the key aspect is that unlike today's (ineffective) medicines for the elderly, medicine that defeats aging will pay for itself very rapidly by eliminating the costs of treating the sick elderly, the loss of productivity of those who today must support their sick parents, and biggest of all the cost of not having the elderly contributing wealth to society. Add in the impossibility of getting elected without a commitment to universal access, and it becomes unarguable that today's restriction of access to the best medicine by ability to pay is not a valid precedent.
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JimBowie1958

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OK, I am not even going to touch transhumanism, CaNadianDude.


ANTI-AGEING BREAKTHROUGH: Ageing process REVERSED in human cells for first time
SCIENTISTS have successfully reversed the process of ageing in cells for the first time in a move which could help beat the likes of Alzheimer’s and dementia.
The decision on which type of ‘message’ is created by a group of around 300 proteins is known as “splicing factors”.
However, as we get older the amount of splicing factors the proteins are able to make steadily decreases.
Older cells are then ultimately less able to turn genes on and off to react to the environment which makes us more vulnerable to diseases which ultimately kill us off.
However, researchers have found a way to turn splicing factors back on.
Lorna Harries, Associate Professor in Molecular Genetics and Matt Whiteman, Professor of Experimental Therapeutics, both at University of Exeter, write for the Conversation: “In our new work, we showed that by treating old cells with a chemical that releases small amounts of hydrogen sulphide, we were able to increase levels of some splicing factors, and to rejuvenate old human cells.
“Hydrogen sulphide is a molecule that is found naturally in our bodies and has been shown to improve several features of age-related disease in animals.
“But it can be toxic in large amounts, so we needed to find a way to deliver it directly to the part of the cell where it is needed.


Science has made mice look good by reversing age-related wrinkles and hair loss at the genetic level. Humanity could get a similar make-over in the future.
“Wrinkled skin and hair loss are hallmarks of aging. What if they could be reversed?” asked researchers at the University of Alabama at Birmingham — who appear to have accomplished that feat, according to the research team.
They introduced a specific gene mutation on a test mouse, which prompted a change in profound appearance. Within four weeks, the mouse had developed wrinkled skin and extensive, visible hair loss. When regular function was restored within the gene by turning off the culprit mutation, the mouse returned to a previous life of smooth skin and luxurious fur only two months later — deemed “indistinguishable” from a healthy mouse of the same age.



Have scientists found the 'Elixir of Youth'? Gene that destroys unhealthy cells is found to extend the life of flies by more than 60%
  • Swiss researchers gave fruit flies an extra copy of a gene known as 'azot'
    • It is thought to kill cells that malfunction to help keep tissues healthy
    • Tissue from flies with the extra gene grew slower, and was healthier
    • The flies also lived between 50 to 60 per cent longer than normal insects
    • Humans also carry the azot gene and the researchers from the University of Bern hope it could be used to develop new anti-aging treatments
    • If it has the same affect in humans, the average lifespan could become 120


Telomere extension turns back aging clock in cultured human cells, study finds
Researchers delivered a modified RNA that encodes a telomere-extending protein to cultured human cells. Cell proliferation capacity was dramatically increased, yielding large numbers of cells for study.
A new procedure can quickly and efficiently increase the length of human telomeres, the protective caps on the ends of chromosomes that are linked to aging and disease, according to scientists at the Stanford University School of Medicine.
Treated cells behave as if they are much younger than untreated cells, multiplying with abandon in the laboratory dish rather than stagnating or dying.
The procedure, which involves the use of a modified type of RNA, will improve the ability of researchers to generate large numbers of cells for study or drug development, the scientists say. Skin cells with telomeres lengthened by the procedure were able to divide up to 40 more times than untreated cells. The research may point to new ways to treat diseases caused by shortened telomeres.
Telomeres are the protective caps on the ends of the strands of DNA called chromosomes, which house our genomes. In young humans, telomeres are about 8,000-10,000 nucleotides long. They shorten with each cell division, however, and when they reach a critical length the cell stops dividing or dies. This internal “clock” makes it difficult to keep most cells growing in a laboratory for more than a few cell doublings.
‘Turning back the internal clock’
“Now we have found a way to lengthen human telomeres by as much as 1,000 nucleotides, turning back the internal clock in these cells by the equivalent of many years of human life,” said Helen Blau, PhD, professor of microbiology and immunology at Stanford and director of the university’s Baxter Laboratory for Stem Cell Biology. “This greatly increases the number of cells available for studies such as drug testing or disease modeling.”
 

JimBowie1958

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Scientists unveil a giant leap for anti-aging
Summary: Researchers have made a discovery that could lead to a revolutionary drug that actually reverses ageing, improves DNA repair and could even help NASA get its astronauts to Mars.
UNSW researchers have made a discovery that could lead to a revolutionary drug that actually reverses ageing, improves DNA repair and could even help NASA get its astronauts to Mars.
In a paper published in Science today, the team identifies a critical step in the molecular process that allows cells to repair damaged DNA.
Their experiments in mice suggest a treatment is possible for DNA damage from ageing and radiation. It is so promising it has attracted the attention of NASA, which believes the treatment can help its Mars mission.
While our cells have an innate capability to repair DNA damage -- which happens every time we go out into the sun, for example -- their ability to do this declines as we age.


Would YOU choose to live forever? Age-reversing pill that Nasa wants to give to astronauts on Mars will begin human trials within six months
  • Scientists have discovered a key signalling process in DNA repair
    • They have used this process in the development of a drug to reverse ageing
    • Trials on mice found that the pill repaired DNA damage after a week
    • Nasa wants the new technology to protect its astronauts from solar radiation
Scientists have made a discovery that could lead to a revolutionary drug that actually reverses ageing.
The drug could help damaged DNA to miraculously repair and even protect Nasa astronauts on Mars by protecting them from solar radiation.
A team of researchers developed the drug after discovering a key signalling process in DNA repair and cell ageing.
During trials on mice, the team found that the drug directly repaired DNA damage caused by radiation exposure or old age.
'The cells of the old mice were indistinguishable from the young mice after just one week of treatment,' said lead author Professor David Sinclair.
Human trials of the pill will begin within six months.
'This is the closest we are to a safe and effective anti-ageing drug that's perhaps only three to five years away from being on the market if the trials go well,' said Professor Sinclair.
The work has drawn the attention of Nasa, which is considering the challenge of keeping its astronauts healthy during a four-year mission to Mars.



In a clinical study that is due on 1st June 2020, researchers are looking to establish the change in sensitivity and the beta-cell functions with NMN supplementation in humans. The scholars are from the Washington University School of Medicine and Keio University School of Medicine in Tokyo.
In a human trial that kicked off in 2016 at Keio University, the scholars were looking to assess the safety of NMN in healthy adults. In the ongoing second phase, the same institute, led by Shin-Ichiro, is investigating long-term NMN administration. What’s more, the team is seeking to evaluate the metabolic-syndrome-related parameters, NMN kinetics, and the drug’s effect on glucose metabolism.
In the 2017 clinical study by the University of Washington, the participants included 50 women aged 55 to 75 years. The group was put on a daily dosage of 250mg of NMN for eight weeks. Although they were healthy individuals, these women slightly had high levels of blood glucose, triglyceride, and BMI. The study is not yet complete.
As at now, there are no publications that corroborate NMN work on human. However, you should hang on because something is cooking and the clinical trials might be promising.




Research into longevity and healthy aging has progressed rapidly in recent years, but intense interest from the public, corporations, and the media has created an environment in which unfounded claims can be hard to separate from scientific facts.
In February, a group of 16 researchers from Harvard, MIT, and other institutions around the U.S. and Europe launched the nonprofit Academy for Health and Lifespan Research to promote future work, ease collaborations between scientists, and ensure that governments and corporations are making decisions based on the latest facts instead of rumor, speculation, or hype.
The Boston-based organization will form a nexus for work on extending the human health span, fighting the myriad diseases associated with aging, and fostering the work of junior researchers. Harvard Medical School Genetics Professor David Sinclair, one of the new academy’s founding members and director of the Paul F. Glenn Center for the Biology of Aging at HMS, spoke to the Gazette about the status of aging research and the mission of the academy.
 

MarathonMike

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This was sent to me on another forum. I don't know about this site, but, it's an interesting read.

I've been trying to find how I can contribute to this discipline as an amateur AI/Machine Learning practioner (also interested in nooptropic science and such). I've only found some research papers regarding longevity but I wasn't impressed with their methodology or hypothesis .

Sounded like research students simply working through the data to fulfill a grant, instead of a serious scientists pushing current science. I am quite comfortable with particular algorithms and preprocessing data and feature engineering, but, it's the quality of data on this subject that is lacking. For such a subject, you won't find access to the medical data online in great volume.

I'm convinced that data and getting a machine to delve through a Unsupervised Environment will produce critical understandings in this area. Along with Reinforcement Learning if we run the networks for weeks at a time, let the algorithms in the Black Box work it out. At the very least, guide future, promising directions.

I'd love to be working on such an objective, but the power needed is thousands of dollars for high end GPU, or more for cloud resource rental, is just not feasible for an individual in a trial and error method as an amateur. This subject matter will require a huge effort.

A current somewhat serious subject I worked on lead me to analyze data that went back 50 years that gleaned some information about government expenditure across a number of sector, it's contribution to GDP per capita, Economic Freedom (or, if it was an unwise use of resources). Ultimately though, what benefit would it be for me when I'm not some guy interested in just passing on my efforts? I'm not in government advising and they haven't exactly been in my corner, so, it would at best, be shredded.

Long story short, we are going to have ways to extend life and live longer, there's too much research on it all from foods, lifestyle and success in mice/pigs, etc. It will eventually be nothing more than a supplement or a cold pill once it is perfected.

Below is what two such dreamers believe, there are more pages with the article:

Should Defeating Aging Be Humanity’s Foremost Priority?

My contention that defeating aging should be humanity’s foremost priority rests on three statements that jointly imply it:
1) Humanity's foremost priority should be the goal that will most greatly reduce the totality of human suffering, scaled by the currently perceived probability distribution of how soon (if at all) the goal will be achieved if humanity tries really hard.

2) Aging causes most of the suffering experienced by humanity at present, and will with high probability continue to do so until it is defeated. Here I define "defeating aging" as the development, and availability to most of humanity, of medicine that mostly if not wholly eliminates the decline in physical and mental function associated with getting older.

3) Medicines that defeat aging have at least a 50% chance of being developed within the next 20 years, and given the discussion of their value that will almost certainly occur in the years preceding their arrival they will with at least 90% probability be made available to most people old enough to need them within five years following their arrival.

Regarding (1), arguments for or against utilitarianism far exceed my philosophical pay grade, so the only feature I will address is whether equal amounts of suffering of two people of different ages matter equally. Two arguable reasons exist today to give the younger person priority for life-saving medicine: it can help the younger person more, and the younger person has had less opportunity to enjoy life. But these both fail when we consider the defeat of aging: the former will simply be false, and the latter becomes negligible because both people have the expectation of far more life ahead of them than behind them.

Regarding (2), we must remember that longevity is not the goal of defeating aging but merely a side-benefit. The suffering arising from aging mostly consists of the decrepitude, dependence and disease that the elderly endure before death, the vicarious suffering of their loved ones and the indirect suffering arising from the economic burden that today's (slight) minimisation of that suffering imposes on society. Sadness arising from an elderly person's death constitutes only a minor contribution. So the important statistic, I claim, is not that most deaths are due to aging but that most sickness is.

Regarding (3), the biomedical research underlying my timeframe estimate would greatly exceed 5000 words let alone 500, so you'll just have to trust me. As for availability, the key aspect is that unlike today's (ineffective) medicines for the elderly, medicine that defeats aging will pay for itself very rapidly by eliminating the costs of treating the sick elderly, the loss of productivity of those who today must support their sick parents, and biggest of all the cost of not having the elderly contributing wealth to society. Add in the impossibility of getting elected without a commitment to universal access, and it becomes unarguable that today's restriction of access to the best medicine by ability to pay is not a valid precedent.
Next
That's really impressive, I had no idea you were that technical. But aren't you concerned with creating societies top heavy with happily retired 120 year olds bleeding countries dry through pension funds and government assistance?
 
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shockedcanadian

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This was sent to me on another forum. I don't know about this site, but, it's an interesting read.

I've been trying to find how I can contribute to this discipline as an amateur AI/Machine Learning practioner (also interested in nooptropic science and such). I've only found some research papers regarding longevity but I wasn't impressed with their methodology or hypothesis .

Sounded like research students simply working through the data to fulfill a grant, instead of a serious scientists pushing current science. I am quite comfortable with particular algorithms and preprocessing data and feature engineering, but, it's the quality of data on this subject that is lacking. For such a subject, you won't find access to the medical data online in great volume.

I'm convinced that data and getting a machine to delve through a Unsupervised Environment will produce critical understandings in this area. Along with Reinforcement Learning if we run the networks for weeks at a time, let the algorithms in the Black Box work it out. At the very least, guide future, promising directions.

I'd love to be working on such an objective, but the power needed is thousands of dollars for high end GPU, or more for cloud resource rental, is just not feasible for an individual in a trial and error method as an amateur. This subject matter will require a huge effort.

A current somewhat serious subject I worked on lead me to analyze data that went back 50 years that gleaned some information about government expenditure across a number of sector, it's contribution to GDP per capita, Economic Freedom (or, if it was an unwise use of resources). Ultimately though, what benefit would it be for me when I'm not some guy interested in just passing on my efforts? I'm not in government advising and they haven't exactly been in my corner, so, it would at best, be shredded.

Long story short, we are going to have ways to extend life and live longer, there's too much research on it all from foods, lifestyle and success in mice/pigs, etc. It will eventually be nothing more than a supplement or a cold pill once it is perfected.

Below is what two such dreamers believe, there are more pages with the article:

Should Defeating Aging Be Humanity’s Foremost Priority?

My contention that defeating aging should be humanity’s foremost priority rests on three statements that jointly imply it:
1) Humanity's foremost priority should be the goal that will most greatly reduce the totality of human suffering, scaled by the currently perceived probability distribution of how soon (if at all) the goal will be achieved if humanity tries really hard.

2) Aging causes most of the suffering experienced by humanity at present, and will with high probability continue to do so until it is defeated. Here I define "defeating aging" as the development, and availability to most of humanity, of medicine that mostly if not wholly eliminates the decline in physical and mental function associated with getting older.

3) Medicines that defeat aging have at least a 50% chance of being developed within the next 20 years, and given the discussion of their value that will almost certainly occur in the years preceding their arrival they will with at least 90% probability be made available to most people old enough to need them within five years following their arrival.

Regarding (1), arguments for or against utilitarianism far exceed my philosophical pay grade, so the only feature I will address is whether equal amounts of suffering of two people of different ages matter equally. Two arguable reasons exist today to give the younger person priority for life-saving medicine: it can help the younger person more, and the younger person has had less opportunity to enjoy life. But these both fail when we consider the defeat of aging: the former will simply be false, and the latter becomes negligible because both people have the expectation of far more life ahead of them than behind them.

Regarding (2), we must remember that longevity is not the goal of defeating aging but merely a side-benefit. The suffering arising from aging mostly consists of the decrepitude, dependence and disease that the elderly endure before death, the vicarious suffering of their loved ones and the indirect suffering arising from the economic burden that today's (slight) minimisation of that suffering imposes on society. Sadness arising from an elderly person's death constitutes only a minor contribution. So the important statistic, I claim, is not that most deaths are due to aging but that most sickness is.

Regarding (3), the biomedical research underlying my timeframe estimate would greatly exceed 5000 words let alone 500, so you'll just have to trust me. As for availability, the key aspect is that unlike today's (ineffective) medicines for the elderly, medicine that defeats aging will pay for itself very rapidly by eliminating the costs of treating the sick elderly, the loss of productivity of those who today must support their sick parents, and biggest of all the cost of not having the elderly contributing wealth to society. Add in the impossibility of getting elected without a commitment to universal access, and it becomes unarguable that today's restriction of access to the best medicine by ability to pay is not a valid precedent.
Next
That's really impressive, I had no idea you were that technical. But aren't you concerned with creating societies top heavy with happily retired 120 year olds bleeding countries dry through pension funds and government assistance?
Not if the 120 year old has the physical age of a 50 year old. Or, the 160 year old with the physical age of a 55 year old etc.

All things being equal, retirement would only be a choice, not a prerequisite due to physical/mental impairment. We not only have to extend the life of our cells and thus organs, but, also prevent diseases that will inherently occur.

I'm not sure what the upper limits are. With robotics also moving forward rapidly, I believe that full replacements of various body parts will become as normal as a knee replacement in the future.
 

JimBowie1958

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That's really impressive, I had no idea you were that technical. But aren't you concerned with creating societies top heavy with happily retired 120 year olds bleeding countries dry through pension funds and government assistance?
Look, you young whipper-snapper, it is not the duty of the old to die just to get out of everyone else's way.

We will remain productive for a very long time, reminding the world how the Baby boomer generation was the best EVAH!
 

22lcidw

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The brain needs to be involved in this also. Not just any diseases. But the experience of being numb to everything as time goes on.
 

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