May 20, 2014: Primaries in SIX states

[Statistikhengst]

1.) Kentucky

Poll closings: 6 pm EST (some close at 7 PM in the western part of the Commonwealth)

AP results for Kentucky

2.) Georgia

Poll closings: 7:00 PM EST

AP results for Georgia

Georgia has a runoff system for both Primaries and GEs.

3.) Pennsylvania

Poll closings: 8:00 PM EST

AP results for Pennsylvania

4.) Arkansas

Poll closings: 8:30 PM EST

AP results for Arkansas


5.) Idaho

Poll Closings: 10:00 PM EST (for the Mountain Time Zone) / 11:00 PM EST (for the Pacific Time Zone)

AP results for Idaho


6.) Oregon

Poll closings: 11:00 PM EST

AP results for Oregon


Results for all six states from POLITICO.


One the more interesting races is the GOP primary for the Senate in KY (incumbent Mitch McConnell against Tea Party challenger Matt Bevin), but polling is showing it not close at all.

The GOP primary in Georgia is exquisitely close and could go any which way. Flip a coin.

Apart from sorting out the winners from the losers tonight, I am also going to be watching the voter turnout statistics to compare to 2010, 2006 and 2002, all mid-term election cycles.

 

[Statistikhengst]

It's early and only 2.4% to 2.7% of precincts have reported in, but in Kentucky, both Grimes (D) and McConnell (R) are winning in blowouts in their respective primary races.





Current polling for the KY Senatorial GE looks extremely tight, so my bet is currently on this race and the race in Georgia becoming the two prime marquee races of 2014.

 

[Nyvin]

So far Kingston and Perdue are neck and neck...

I want to make an early call: Kingston and Perdue go into Runoff election

 

[Statistikhengst]

So far Kingston and Perdue are neck and neck...

I want to make an early call: Kingston and Perdue go into Runoff election

Very, very likely.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Both have won their primaries, and impressively:





Total votes, DEM primary (preliminary figures): 377,954

Total votes, GOP primary (preliminary figures): 323,663

 

[Statistikhengst]

Nunn is pulling 76% of the vote. Checkmark.

On the GOP side, looks definitely like a run-off between Kingston and Perdue.


Only 18% reporting, no need to report raw totals yet, but quite apparently, the GOP primary will receive more votes than the DEM primary.

 

[Toro]

Harley! Harley! Harley!

The Tea Party's epic Kentucky fail.

 

[Jughead]

Harley! Harley! Harley!

The Tea Party's epic Kentucky fail.

McConnell owes a gratitude of thanks to Rand Paul for this win.

 

[Votto]

Harley! Harley! Harley!

The Tea Party's epic Kentucky fail.

McConnell owes a gratitude of thanks to Rand Paul for this win.

They deserve each other.

It was nice seeing the zombie apocalypse once again.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Rand was not Mitch's choice in Rand's election.

I am glad Rand helped Mitch to beat a TPM in the primary.

Reveals what RP thinks of TP.

 

[Toro]

Oops!

 

[Nyvin]

Interesting that the Democrats got about 50k more votes overall then the GOP did in the Kentucky Senate primary.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Interesting that the Democrats got about 50k more votes overall then the GOP did in the Kentucky Senate primary.

Wait until the final vote totals are in and then I will compare.

KY actually has a small majority of registered Democrats, who tend to vote Republican in national elections, at least since 2000.

 

[Statistikhengst]

In Oregon, Jeff Merkley sailed through with 93% in the primary, he will face challenger Monica Wehby, who won her primary with 52% but a good margin over the next guy, in the fall.

Merkley is heavily favored to retain his seat.

Similarly, Kitzhaber sailed through his primary with 90% and his challenger, Dennis Richardson, also had a landslide win in his primary, with 66%. This race could be interesting to watch, but knowing the tilt of this state, it is still likely that Kitzhaber stays in the Governor's Mansion.

 

[Statistikhengst]

In Idaho, crazy man Harley Brown got 3%. Butch Otter won his primary challenge by 9 points, he is heavily favored to beat his Democratic opponent, AJ Balukoff, in the fall.


Senator Jim Risch (R) sailed through his primary with 80% and will easily defeat Democratic challenger Nels Mitchell in the fall.

Take a look at the HUGE disparity in the number of raw votes cast in the DEM primary as opposed to the GOP primary:



That is a 6:1 R to D ratio!

Republicans have a strong advantage in Idaho, as usual.

 

[Statistikhengst]

In Arkansas, the GOP AG primary will go into a runoff.

Both Senatorial primaries (R, D) were uncontested.

 

[Statistikhengst]

In Georgia's gubernatorial primaries, incumbent Nathan Deal sailed to an easy win with a whopping 74%. His challenger, Democrat Jason Carter, ran unopposed.

In the Senatorial, Democrat Michelle Nunn indeed maintained 75% throughout the night.

The Republicans go into a runoff between Perdue (31%) and Kingston (26%). Kingston was leading for a long time in the night, but Perdue came out slightly on top, but way under the 40% mark.

 

[Statistikhengst]

In Pennsylvania, Democrat Tom Wolf easily won his primary. Republican Tom Corbett (inc) ran unopposed. This is a prime DEM pick-up target in the 2014 gubernatorial races.

 

[Statistikhengst]

So, it looks as if there were no big surprises last night, as America writes it's 2014 electoral history.

 

[JoeB131]

It does seem like the Establishment is taking its party back from the TEA Party, and the TEA Party is acquiescing because they think winning in November is more important than putting Teabaggers in office.

Or maybe they think having four or five teabagger senators is more important because they can bully the rest when the Senate majority is only one or two votes.