Marist's take on early polling and RV vs. LV

[Statistikhengst]

Marist put out a small write-up on why it polls RV now and LV closer to an election:

6/2: Likely Voters: Why Later Not Now | Home of the Marist Poll: Pebbles and Pundits


It's a pretty good, small write up.

I agree with some of it. Marist also goes some into the "why" of early polling.

Go read it and let us know what you think. This should be a topic where people who usually go at each others' necks should be able to have a civil and adult discussion.


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BTW, in both 2008 and 2012, the AVERAGES of polls (usually a 14 day time-frame, 7 days right before the election), using both RV and LV values, were very, very good. The values were better in 2012, they were somewhat more slanted to the Right in 2012. This has taught me that the "truth" about an electorate usually lies somewhere in the middle between these two possible calculation models. So, I neither praise nor do I damn either of these models.

 

[Statistikhengst]

A friendly shout out to some folks who may really enjoy the information in the OP:
[MENTION=42916]Derideo_Te[/MENTION] [MENTION=9429]AVG-JOE[/MENTION] [MENTION=45886]Mad_Cabbie[/MENTION] [MENTION=20412]JakeStarkey[/MENTION] [MENTION=38281]Wolfsister77[/MENTION] [MENTION=21679]william the wie[/MENTION] [MENTION=43625]Mertex[/MENTION] [MENTION=37250]aaronleland[/MENTION] [MENTION=36767]Bloodrock44[/MENTION] [MENTION=30999]daws101[/MENTION] [MENTION=46449]Delta4Embassy[/MENTION] [MENTION=33449]BreezeWood[/MENTION] [MENTION=46750]Knightfall[/MENTION] [MENTION=20450]MarcATL[/MENTION] [MENTION=20594]Mr Clean[/MENTION] [MENTION=20704]Nosmo King[/MENTION] [MENTION=45320]Nyvin[/MENTION] [MENTION=20321]rightwinger[/MENTION] [MENTION=25283]Sallow[/MENTION] [MENTION=21524]oldfart[/MENTION] [MENTION=46193]Thx[/MENTION] [MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION] [MENTION=24452]Seawytch[/MENTION] [MENTION=29614]C_Clayton_Jones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18990]Barb[/MENTION] [MENTION=31057]JoeB131[/MENTION] [MENTION=11278]editec[/MENTION] [MENTION=22983]Flopper[/MENTION] [MENTION=46136]dreolin[/MENTION] [MENTION=19867]G.T.[/MENTION] [MENTION=47936]AntiParty[/MENTION] [MENTION=34688]Grandma[/MENTION] [MENTION=48060]guno[/MENTION] [MENTION=20112]bodecea[/MENTION] [MENTION=41527]Pogo[/MENTION] [MENTION=48010]Machaut[/MENTION]


Anyone who doesn't want to be on this occasional mention list: just let me know, I will drop the name immediately.

Thanks,

-Stat


PS. Please do not quote this posting, otherwise you will send out the @ list again. Thanks.

 

[G.T.]

A friendly shout out to some folks who may really enjoy the information in the OP:
[MENTION=42916]Derideo_Te[/MENTION] [MENTION=9429]AVG-JOE[/MENTION] [MENTION=45886]Mad_Cabbie[/MENTION] [MENTION=20412]JakeStarkey[/MENTION] [MENTION=38281]Wolfsister77[/MENTION] [MENTION=21679]william the wie[/MENTION] [MENTION=43625]Mertex[/MENTION] [MENTION=37250]aaronleland[/MENTION] [MENTION=36767]Bloodrock44[/MENTION] [MENTION=30999]daws101[/MENTION] [MENTION=46449]Delta4Embassy[/MENTION] [MENTION=33449]BreezeWood[/MENTION] [MENTION=46750]Knightfall[/MENTION] [MENTION=20450]MarcATL[/MENTION] [MENTION=20594]Mr Clean[/MENTION] [MENTION=20704]Nosmo King[/MENTION] [MENTION=45320]Nyvin[/MENTION] [MENTION=20321]rightwinger[/MENTION] [MENTION=25283]Sallow[/MENTION] [MENTION=21524]oldfart[/MENTION] [MENTION=46193]Thx[/MENTION] [MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION] [MENTION=24452]Seawytch[/MENTION] [MENTION=29614]C_Clayton_Jones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18990]Barb[/MENTION] [MENTION=19867]G.T.[/MENTION] [MENTION=31057]JoeB131[/MENTION] [MENTION=11278]editec[/MENTION] [MENTION=22983]Flopper[/MENTION] [MENTION=46136]dreolin[/MENTION] [MENTION=19867]G.T.[/MENTION] [MENTION=47936]AntiParty[/MENTION] [MENTION=34688]Grandma[/MENTION] [MENTION=48060]guno[/MENTION] [MENTION=20112]bodecea[/MENTION] [MENTION=41527]Pogo[/MENTION] [MENTION=48010]Machaut[/MENTION]


Anyone who doesn't want to be on this occasional mention list: just let me know, I will drop the name immediately.

Thanks,

-Stat


PS. Please do not quote this posting, otherwise you will send out the @ list again. Thanks.

actually I told ya before I didn't want to be on your mention list, and ya put me back booger

 

[Sallow]

The Midterms are not likely to make many changes in the present dynamic.

Personally I think Democrats will keep the Senate and perhaps make small gains in the house.

The big news will be state elections.

There I think there will be some upsets.

 

[Statistikhengst]

actually I told ya before I didn't want to be on your mention list, and ya put me back booger

Done.

 

[MarcATL]

The Midterms are not likely to make many changes in the present dynamic.

Personally I think Democrats will keep the Senate and perhaps make small gains in the house.

The big news will be state elections.

There I think there will be some upsets.

If what you say is correct, that would be a BIG deal!

I expect that the Dems will lose, perhaps not big, but they'll take some losses.

2 reasons.... First, the populate is pretty stupid, aka Democrat voters don't vote midterms and the others will be voting against their own interests. Second, the Democrats are cowards. Most won't stick up for Obamacare based on their fear of the populace, which will further cause their base to not be motivated to vote.

With that said, the Democrats are doing pretty good, because despite everything wrong, things are going pretty good, at least they're CONSISTENTLY moving in a positive direction, and has been for some time now. Despite all the efforts by Republicans to the contrary.

Let's see how it goes.

 

[MarcATL]

What I get from the OP is that the early polls and studies not so much predict the votes of the next election, but help to shape the candidates policies and political strategies.

 

[Statistikhengst]

What I get from the OP is that the early polls and studies not so much predict the votes of the next election, but help to shape the candidates policies and political strategies.

In a certain way, yes. Early polls are viewed by most candidates as an invaluable service.