How they came to their figures is all speculation and conjecture, moron.
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HOW WE CONDUCTED THIS STUDY
To evaluate the impact of the vaccination program in the United States, we expanded our age-stratified, agent-based model of COVID-19 to include waning of naturally acquired or vaccine-elicited immunity, as well as booster vaccination. For the timelines of this study, the characteristics of five variants were included in the model, each with cumulative prevalence of at least 3 percent in the U.S., including Iota, Alpha, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron, in addition to the original Wuhan-I SARS-CoV-2 strain.
The model parameters included the population demographics of the U.S., prevalence of comorbidities, an empirically determined contact network accounting for changes in pandemic restrictions and mobility patterns, as well as age-specific risks of severe health outcomes because of COVID-19. The model incorporated data on daily vaccine doses administered in the U.S. and implemented the age-based expansion of the vaccination program. The minimum age eligibility for vaccination was 16 years before May 13, 2021, after which children 12 to 15 became eligible for vaccination. Vaccination of children ages 5 to 11 with Pfizer-BioNTech started on November 2, 2021; vaccination of children ages 6 months to 5 years began on June 18, 2022. First boosters were authorized to elderly people and individuals with comorbidities on September 1, 2021, and expanded to other age groups over the next few months. On March 29, 2022, an additional booster was recommended, and an Omicron-specific booster was introduced on September 1, 2022.
Vaccine efficacies against infection, and symptomatic and severe disease for different vaccine types — for each variant and by time since vaccination — were drawn from published estimates. The model was calibrated to reported national incidence data between October 1, 2020, and November 30, 2022, and validated with the trends of hospitalizations and deaths.
We evaluated the impact of vaccine rollout by
simulating the pandemic trajectory under the counterfactual scenario without vaccination.
The simulated outcomes of total infections, hospitalizations, and deaths were compared to the fitted model, reflecting the actual pandemic in the U.S. and vaccinations that occurred between December 12, 2020, and November 30, 2022.
We then estimated medical cost savings based on these averted outcomes,
as previously described."
Evidence supports the debate over whether or not vaccines help COVID management and transmission. Discover what ways COVID vaccines have helped.
www.commonwealthfund.org
Buncha bullshit.