Introduction and Background
The Uninsured Population
About 45 million people, or about 15 percent of the total U.S. population, will be uninsured at any given point in 2009, by CBOs most recent estimates. Because the elderly have near-universal coverage from Medicare, many analyses of the uninsured focus on the nonelderly population, about 17 percent of which is expected to lack coverage in 2009. Those estimates for 2009 do not reflect the recent deterioration in economic conditions, which could result in a larger uninsured population.
In many cases, peoples insurance status varies over the course of a year. For example, CBOs analysis of survey data showed that between 57 million and 59 million peopleor roughly one-fourth of the nonelderly n populationwere uninsured at some point during 1998. The average number of people who were uninsured at a give point in 1998 was smallerbetween 39 million and 44 million, of which 21 million to 31 million were uninsured for all of that year.
19 CBO also found that for those who became uninsured at some point between July 1996 and June 1997, nearly half had spells of uninsurance lasting four months or less and about one in six had spells lasting two years or more.
According to CBOs projections, the average number of people who are uninsured at any one time will rise to about 54 million, or about 19 percent of the nonelderly population, by 2019. The number of uninsured individuals is expected to increase because health insurance premiums are likely to rise considerably faster than income, which will make insurance more difficult to afford.
