CrusaderFrank
Diamond Member
- May 20, 2009
- 153,380
- 78,687
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Twice as many Senate seats currently held by Republicans are up for reelection as those held by Democrats, so there is a real likelihood that there will be a Democrat majority after the 2016 elections. This impacts two issues that are being discussed by Republicans:
1. SCOTUS Vacancy. The current thinking is that this should be filled by the next President. However, a Democratic Senate would not approve a conservative Justice and, if the new President was a Democrat, would gladly suspend the filibuster rules to confirm as many liberal Justices as could be nominated.
In addition, Obama will be seeking to nominate someone for whom maximum political hay can be made from a GOP refusal to confirm. This will probably be an underrepresented minority (e.g., Hispanic Male) with a moderate judicial record, thus playing into the theme of Republican racism.
If this happens, the GOP Senate might be well advised to confirm such a nominee, rather than risk losing the election and ending up with complete liberal domination of SCOTUS for years to come
2. Presidential Politics. Regardless of any reservations one may have about the Trump candidacy, there is little doubt that he is the best "negotiator" of any of the GOP candidates. While Cruz/Rubio may have purer conservative credentials, they would probably face united Democratic opposition in the Senate, thus stymieing most of their legislative initiatives.
On the other hand, Trump is such a master manipulator of public opinion that even Democrat legislators would shy away from incurring his scorn. It is hard to imagine him being used as a Democrat punching bag the way the Bushes were. At least with a President Trump, we would not be looking at eight more years of gridlock.
This is what Dems retaking the Senate would look like