Larry Schweikart on Twitter
Here is my twitter thread from this morning reviewing the voter registration changes since 2016 in AZ, FL, IA, NC, NH, NV, and PA,
In general: Rs have gained significantly net since 2016 in FL, NC, and NV; have held steady in AZ (140k overall advantage), lost a tiny bit of ground in NH and IA but still lead big in both, and have gained net 70k in PA.
Based on these numbers, Trump should win every state he carried in 2016 and have a very good chance to flip NH.
Remember: GA, TX, WI, MI, and VA do not register by party so it is impossible to track there; and OH has special registration issues in that if you don't vote in the previous election you are considered "unaffiliated," even if you traditionally vote R or D. However, while I did not include OH in this analysis, last fall when we ran all the Us based on previous 20 year voting patterns, Rs in OH had a 300,000 advantage. I consider OH entirely safe. In NM Rs have made good gains against the Ds, but started off 100k in the hole, and remain just under 90k in the hole.
Here is my twitter thread from this morning reviewing the voter registration changes since 2016 in AZ, FL, IA, NC, NH, NV, and PA,
In general: Rs have gained significantly net since 2016 in FL, NC, and NV; have held steady in AZ (140k overall advantage), lost a tiny bit of ground in NH and IA but still lead big in both, and have gained net 70k in PA.
Based on these numbers, Trump should win every state he carried in 2016 and have a very good chance to flip NH.
Remember: GA, TX, WI, MI, and VA do not register by party so it is impossible to track there; and OH has special registration issues in that if you don't vote in the previous election you are considered "unaffiliated," even if you traditionally vote R or D. However, while I did not include OH in this analysis, last fall when we ran all the Us based on previous 20 year voting patterns, Rs in OH had a 300,000 advantage. I consider OH entirely safe. In NM Rs have made good gains against the Ds, but started off 100k in the hole, and remain just under 90k in the hole.
