"Kiss the Good Times Goodbye" - the end of the automotive era

[WinterBorn]

In ten years, most new cars will be self-driving, because lower insurance costs will pay for the self-driving feature.

Speeds won't be super-fast because the current road system doesn't support high speeds and also because high speeds are inefficient, even with drafting.

Yes, I expect car ownership to plummet. When you can call a private ride in minutes, why own a car?

Lower insurance cost is one benefit. Cutting the number of fatalities and the financial cost of traffic accidents is the biggest. 33,000 people died last year in car wrecks. And the cost of traffic accidents in the US is an estimated $871billion.

 

[Skull Pilot]

to think that we will have the infrastructure to do this in 5 years is ridiculous.

Most people do not trust driverless cars and I don't think that will change any time soon

Didn't the article say 20 years?

'Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap'

 

[WinterBorn]

to think that we will have the infrastructure to do this in 5 years is ridiculous.

Most people do not trust driverless cars and I don't think that will change any time soon

Didn't the article say 20 years?

'Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap'

That is once the system is in place.

from the link in the OP:

"The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.

The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents.

Of course, there will be a transition period. Everyone will have five years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap or trade it on a module."

 

[Skull Pilot]

to think that we will have the infrastructure to do this in 5 years is ridiculous.

Most people do not trust driverless cars and I don't think that will change any time soon

Didn't the article say 20 years?

'Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap'

That is once the system is in place.

from the link in the OP:

"The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.

The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents.

Of course, there will be a transition period. Everyone will have five years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap or trade it on a module."

I didn't read past the ridiculous headline.

And even in 20 years it won't happen. To think that 3.8 million square miles of this country can be 100% covered by driverless vehicles is too outlandish for sci fi never mind real life

 

[WinterBorn]

to think that we will have the infrastructure to do this in 5 years is ridiculous.

Most people do not trust driverless cars and I don't think that will change any time soon

Didn't the article say 20 years?

'Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap'

That is once the system is in place.

from the link in the OP:

"The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.

The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents.

Of course, there will be a transition period. Everyone will have five years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap or trade it on a module."

I didn't read past the ridiculous headline.

And even in 20 years it won't happen. To think that 3.8 million square miles of this country can be 100% covered by driverless vehicles is too outlandish for sci fi never mind real life

How many square miles is not really relevant. I agree that the rural areas will probably not see the change in 20 years. But the urban areas probably will. And for a variety of reasons. I have already pointed out the cost of traffic accident in lives and money. But the urban congestion is getting worse and worse. The parking in many cities is becoming almost impossible.

One thing that came up in a conversation about this topic is the ability to relive the traffic issues, not just by taking out the huge number of driver-error accidents, but the ability to streamline traffic flow by routing certain numbers over different roadways. Think of the app Waze. It keeps you updated on traffic flow and is constantly looking for the better route. If that same type of programming were used in reverse, the driverless vehicles would be routed so that the maximum speed and minimum commute would be available.

 

[rightwinger]

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Interesting article.

I'm not buying it

I think we may move to driverless cars for some applications but the overwhelming majority will be privately owned cars, manually driven with driverless capabilities like a cruise control and parking

I just don't think drivers will go for a pay as you go option

 

[miketx]

What's an "automotive ear"? <kidding!>

LMAO!! It is early. I was on my first cup of coffee, and apparently my typing was not awake.

Can some handy mod fix that? I don't see an edit function for thread titles.

I think you have to ask them via PM.

The title edit function is at the top right side of the OP called "Thread tools". Funny, I make so many typos because of my hands, I knew exactly what was meant.

 

[WinterBorn]

What's an "automotive ear"? <kidding!>

LMAO!! It is early. I was on my first cup of coffee, and apparently my typing was not awake.

Can some handy mod fix that? I don't see an edit function for thread titles.

I think you have to ask them via PM.

The title edit function is at the top right side of the OP called "Thread tools". Funny, I make so many typos because of my hands, I knew exactly what was meant.

Thanks. I thought about changing it, once a few people told me how. But I think it is funny.

 

[Skull Pilot]

to think that we will have the infrastructure to do this in 5 years is ridiculous.

Most people do not trust driverless cars and I don't think that will change any time soon

Didn't the article say 20 years?

'Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap'

That is once the system is in place.

from the link in the OP:

"The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.

The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents.

Of course, there will be a transition period. Everyone will have five years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap or trade it on a module."

I didn't read past the ridiculous headline.

And even in 20 years it won't happen. To think that 3.8 million square miles of this country can be 100% covered by driverless vehicles is too outlandish for sci fi never mind real life

How many square miles is not really relevant. I agree that the rural areas will probably not see the change in 20 years. But the urban areas probably will. And for a variety of reasons. I have already pointed out the cost of traffic accident in lives and money. But the urban congestion is getting worse and worse. The parking in many cities is becoming almost impossible.

One thing that came up in a conversation about this topic is the ability to relive the traffic issues, not just by taking out the huge number of driver-error accidents, but the ability to streamline traffic flow by routing certain numbers over different roadways. Think of the app Waze. It keeps you updated on traffic flow and is constantly looking for the better route. If that same type of programming were used in reverse, the driverless vehicles would be routed so that the maximum speed and minimum commute would be available.

So we get rid of driver error and replace it with computer programmer error

There is no way I will ever trust a driverless vehicle.

 

[WinterBorn]

Didn't the article say 20 years?

'Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap'

That is once the system is in place.

from the link in the OP:

"The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.

The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents.

Of course, there will be a transition period. Everyone will have five years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap or trade it on a module."

I didn't read past the ridiculous headline.

And even in 20 years it won't happen. To think that 3.8 million square miles of this country can be 100% covered by driverless vehicles is too outlandish for sci fi never mind real life

How many square miles is not really relevant. I agree that the rural areas will probably not see the change in 20 years. But the urban areas probably will. And for a variety of reasons. I have already pointed out the cost of traffic accident in lives and money. But the urban congestion is getting worse and worse. The parking in many cities is becoming almost impossible.

One thing that came up in a conversation about this topic is the ability to relive the traffic issues, not just by taking out the huge number of driver-error accidents, but the ability to streamline traffic flow by routing certain numbers over different roadways. Think of the app Waze. It keeps you updated on traffic flow and is constantly looking for the better route. If that same type of programming were used in reverse, the driverless vehicles would be routed so that the maximum speed and minimum commute would be available.

So we get rid of driver error and replace it with computer programmer error

There is no way I will ever trust a driverless vehicle.

In urban areas it will be an excellent trade. In Atlanta, there are accidents every day during rush hour. Almost all are driver error. Aside from the costs, it can bring people's commutes to a standstill.

I was driving south on I-75 a couple of months ago at around 4:30pm. The overhead LED sign said "10th Street exit 6 miles. Travel time 42 mins".

 

[WinterBorn]

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Interesting article.

I'm not buying it

I think we may move to driverless cars for some applications but the overwhelming majority will be privately owned cars, manually driven with driverless capabilities like a cruise control and parking

I just don't think drivers will go for a pay as you go option

Well, the average car payment is around $500 a month. Add in maint, gas, and insurance and you are spending a fair amount. 5 days a week for 4 weeks, the $500 car payment alone is $25 per work day.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Interesting article.

Interesting, but wrong.

 

[Windparadox]

`
`
As I see it, the internal combustion engine is already on it's way out as we speak.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Not going to happen. Not a single chance, at least not in a minimum of 30 years.
Same reason that we are ridiculously still using the internal combustion motor.

 

[rightwinger]

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Interesting article.

I'm not buying it

I think we may move to driverless cars for some applications but the overwhelming majority will be privately owned cars, manually driven with driverless capabilities like a cruise control and parking

I just don't think drivers will go for a pay as you go option

Well, the average car payment is around $500 a month. Add in maint, gas, and insurance and you are spending a fair amount. 5 days a week for 4 weeks, the $500 car payment alone is $25 per work day.

Cars last a good 20 years now and many people own them outright. We use our cars for much more than commuting for work. We are spoiled and love our private cars that are available exactly when we want them

I can see these driverless cars on an "on call basis" in the cities. Glorified Ubers
I just don't see them outside the city limits where the profit margin is gone

 

[rightwinger]

`
`
As I see it, the internal combustion engine is already on it's way out as we speak.

Maybe not out....but less reliant on it

 

[iamwhatiseem]

`
`
As I see it, the internal combustion engine is already on it's way out as we speak.

Maybe not out....but less reliant on it

It is having an excruciatingly slow death, it should have been gone at least 10 years ago...but there is waaaay too much $$ in the oil industry for it to go away. It will still be around at least another 20 years.

 

[rightwinger]

`
`
As I see it, the internal combustion engine is already on it's way out as we speak.

Maybe not out....but less reliant on it

It is having an excruciatingly slow death, it should have been gone at least 10 years ago...but there is waaaay too much $$ in the oil industry for it to go away. It will still be around at least another 20 years.

The slow development of batteries has slowed the transition

 

[iamwhatiseem]

`
`
As I see it, the internal combustion engine is already on it's way out as we speak.

Maybe not out....but less reliant on it

It is having an excruciatingly slow death, it should have been gone at least 10 years ago...but there is waaaay too much $$ in the oil industry for it to go away. It will still be around at least another 20 years.

The slow development of batteries has slowed the transition

The well orchestrated slow development....

 

[Windparadox]

Maybe not out....but less reliant on it

`
`
Yeah, I didn't mean "out" as to disappear. I mean people still ride horses. Reliant is a good word. And it will take decades, considering electric will replace internal combustion, by attrition.....unless the government steps in, which they shouldn't.