Originally posted by acludem
Kerry's plan is specific and will work. Bush's plan is to continue kowtowing to his big oil friends. And yes, it is relevent to mention that our Vice President used to be the head of a company that has received most of the big contracts in Iraq, has consistently been given favorable and favored treatment by this administration, and continues to pump money into Dick Cheney's pockets and the Bush/Cheney campaign.
acludem
From your link there are four essential changes... can you honestly argue these will help? I have serious doubts.
John Kerry's Plan To Lower Gas Prices, Improve Efficiency, And Create Energy Independence:
Manage the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to Protect our Security without Driving Up Prices. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the largest stockpile of government-owned emergency crude oil in the world. Established in the aftermath of the 1973-74 oil embargo, the SPR provides the President with a powerful response option should a disruption in commercial oil supplies threaten the U.S. economy. It also allows the United States to meet part of its obligation to maintain emergency oil stocks, and provides a national defense fuel reserve. Unfortunately, the Bush Administration has put the SPR fill program on automatic pilot without regard to the short-term effect on the US market. The program needs better management – diverting oil from the market to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a time of exceptional tightness in oil markets as Bush has done, and continues to do, does not make sense today. Kerry would temporarily suspend filling SPR until oil prices return to normal levels.
http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/spr/spr-facts.shtml
The SPR is almost topped off, with 660 billion barrels of a total capacity of 700, and is now at a record high level.
The average price paid at $27.14 is still well below todayÂ’s record high of $40+/per barrel.
Many industry analysts say there is absolutely no guarantee oil prices will ever stop rising, and many say the world may never see oil dip below $30 a barrel again.
NOW is the time to fill our SPR, not just for fiscal reasons but for national security, given the unprecedented uncertainty over the Middle East. The SPR was never designed to be used to conduct market wagers on world prices of oil.
Kerry's entire strategy for oil price management depends upon gambling our
strategic reserve against the market. Which, when you consider the the market itself already buys/sells oil based on future contracts, is a really foolish thing to risk.
What he's claiming is the government can play the oil market better than the exchange market experts. The entire plan depends upon prices dropping below the current high.
Imagine Kerry dumps the SPR on the market next year, taps it out, and prices rise to $90/barrel. Not only would repurchase of the reserve be three times as expensive, but we are fucked out of a reserve once any disruption occurs (and if prices continue to rise, this is assured).
Basically, this a CRAZY IDEA.
Use a Renewed American Position in the World to Stand Up to OPEC Candidate Bush Promised to Arm-Twist OPEC.
Total fantasy.
The election of Kerry over Bush will signal to the Islamic world a clear lack of resolve of the American people to pursue any aggressive policy for stability or reform in the Middle East, and with a virtually assured U.S. pullout from the region anti-Western forces will scoff at the “arm twisting” in the same way we might scoff at French diplomacy today.
Oil prices will skyrocket as the world worries over an uncertain future and lack of stability in the region.
On February 10, 2004, OPEC announced an agreement to cut its output quotas by 1 million barrels per day, starting in March. By March 17, crude oil prices in New York reached a 13-year high of $38.18 per barrel. George Bush's silence on OPEC decisions has sent the signal that prices are not a concern. [Source: “Oil prices rise to 13-year high, threaten economy,” Washington Times , March 18, 2004] A Kerry Administration would act immediately to exert pressure on OPEC to increase oil supplies. As President, John Kerry will engage in diplomacy to ensure that US consumers are not held hostage to price fixing by OPEC. During the last year of the Clinton Administration, effective diplomatic pressure resulted in OPEC responding proactively to reduce prices [Source: “A Long Expensive Winter,” Global News Wire, 2/27/00] .
Major YAWN. IÂ’m really not impressed with this diplomacy track. "Immediately exert pressure", in the process of arranging a withdrawal from Iraq?
The Bush approach is to "walk softly and carry a big stick", while Kerry's is to whine about prices while running away from Iraq. Yes, he will pull our troops out, for good or worse.
Setting Goals to Increase Fuel Efficiency and New Investments to Assure American Industry Leads the Way. John Kerry believes that all Americans should drive the cars, SUVs, minivans and trucks of their choice, but that these vehicles can be more efficient, cheaper to operate, safer and more affordable. John Kerry believes that we need a realistic fuel economy standard, coupled with tax incentives for consumers to buy the vehicles they want and incentives for manufacturers to convert factories to build the more efficient vehicles of the future. It will enhance national security, strengthen the American auto industry, and protect and create jobs.
Nothing Bush has not already sponsored in his first term.
I canÂ’t say I actually disagree with tax incentives for fuel economy, besides the fact that the market for fuel economy on new cars eventually adjusts without government prodding anyway.
But itÂ’s obvious the need for storage is secondary to the umbrella of safety and control a large, high chassis lends to our American soccer moms on the road, while from the seat of a compact (Toyota MR2), I feel like roadkill these days.
At some point perhaps IÂ’d even support a licensing of heavy vehicles for legitimate cargo needs only.
All this offroad marketing behind these gas guzzlers, is the most useless thing of all.
Can you even go off-road in America today and not be either trespassing or violating a park law? Where?
And donÂ’t get me started on Hummers!
Or the private jet Kerry uses!!!
If you ask me all anyone needs for commuting to work is a small compact.
A sedan or station wagon for families is totally sufficient.
Again, though, if someone really needs it, or wants to lease it, they can drive a big car. I'm all for freedom of choice.
Increasing Renewable Fuels in America's Gasoline Now: 5 Billion Gallons in the Next Decade. John Kerry believes that renewable fuels, produced in America, can reduce our oil dependence. Renewable fuel produced from corn and other sources – such as agricultural, forest and food wastes – has a strong foothold in the market and great potential. John Kerry supports a national standard that will ensure that at least 5 billion gallons of renewable fuel is part of America's energy supply by 2012. A strong renewable fuels standard will reduce our oil dependence, improve the quality of our environment, and strengthen the economy of rural America.
Haha, 2012 is a convenient target to make good a promise, given it's the end of KerryÂ’s second term and we'll hate him passionately by then anyway. If Kerry wins, Hillary never will.
But does the idea of producing fuel from waste seem like a concept that could be wildly profitable, if it actually worked effectiently? If the technology exists, or could exist, to make this actually cheaper than importing oil, why hasn't the market already developed it? When does new technology require government funding?
Such investment is actually in the works, but it's still a pipe dream reported on only recently in the news.
Nobody has actually developed a process of manufacturing this in quantity, nor has it proven that it can be supplied more cheaply than oil, let alone any other energy source.
So when democrats hinge their solution upon some huge investment into a pipe dream never proven to work, I get chills.
The idea just sounds sexy to Dems because it's a double whammy, a solution to oil dependence AND a glorified recycling project. But totally unproven, even after perhaps billions in private investment already.
The entire plan, again...
1. Draw down the SPR and hope we don't actually need it for it's real purpose, for disruption in supply. Play the market and pray the prices drop eventually.
2. Get all cocky about how being elected has changed the world's willingness to ally with American interest. Believe that OPEC actually gives a shit about Kerry's new mad diplomatic skillz at the UN.
Be chill about Iraq and tell the oil rich countries and their oil company buddies that Kerry is not going to put up with their hijinks like Bush did.
Tell 'em they better give you some cheap oil or else... or else... the UN is going to put the hammer down on their production quotas. The HAMMER!
3. Get the industry to make a bunch of little cars because the expectation is that oil prices WILL increase and people will actually be buying them. Which means the plan to draw down the SPR is totally screwed.
4. Put a billions of government money into investment of oil extraction from waste, even while every other form of power is cheaper to utilize.
Pray like hell eventually the technology developes to become profitable, over and beyond the tax dollars already invested into it. Also assume that the right kind of waste is always refilled.
Honestly, none of us can claim either candidates policy for economic security is guaranteed to work. I understand the vision behind the Bush Administrations' policy in the middle east and understand clearly the cost of it's failure.
While Kerry could offer a moderate plan with less risk of a true failure of Middle East oil stablity, none of what he's offering make sense. #1 relies upon a decrease in oil prices, while #3 and #4 rely upon it's increase to succeed. #2 is irrationally arrogent.
My recommendations.
#1 Resolve Iraq no matter how long it takes. We'll always be able to secure the oil heads, if all else fails.
#2 Drill the Artic. The Caribou won't suffer... even if they did, screw 'em.
#3 Invest in oil extraction technology from the shoals of Eastern Canada. Filtering rock from oil is proven science. Give our money to Canada, they are great neighbors and can finally catch up with the U.S.
#4 License vehicles over a weight limit. Make it so yoiu can rent or lease SUV's and Humvees if you really want to drive them for a while
#5 Expand the SPR, the salt mines are 680/700 full. Retired nuclear silos are a good place for starters.
#6 Stop taxing energy entirely. Let the market bear the true cost and find and invest in it's own alternatives. Oil taxation will no longer be a government revenue source, leading to less pressure to pursue oil-driven politics.
#7 Issue new licenses for private nuclear power plants. Zone them out into remote areas, and regulate them closely. Nuclear power will be the cheapest source, very soon. It is also proven technology.
Those changes sound good to me... thoughts?
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