RE: Just when all of the sanctions were about to work...
SUBTOPIC: Guesstimation
⁜→ frigidweirdo, et al,
In recent decades, Americans (
and like cultures) have been increasingly prone to express opinions or to make judgments based on inconclusive evidence or incomplete research (
guessing).
Oh were they? Literally going to happen tomorrow huh?
(COMMENT)
In 1989, when the Iron Curtain collapsed, none of the traditional intelligence apparatus made such a prediction. It is one of those types of events that you do not see coming until it happens.
Sanctions, as they have been applied to Iran, have a definite impact on the Persian Culture, but the outcome is never really certain. The Persians, like any ancient culture, may erupt in various ways. When the Shah of Imperial Iran fell, I was in central Europe and remember the pictures in the newspapers of how the populace fell into this state of animal-like blood lust; not so dissimilar from that of the French Revolution. And while some people predicted that the return of Ayatollah Khomeini would not pass uneventfully, no one seemed to know what to expect.
I am not sure anyone can put a complete picture together on the true effect sanctions have had relative to Iran. But experience has shown us that accurate intelligence that does not reflect the thinking of the Executive Branch seldom surfaces without a major rewrite.
What we do know is that The President was working his way through the ranks of Washington Politics at a time when the philosophy of the day was to throw more money at problems beyond their capacity to solve. And that make-shift solution has been used over and over again for more than half-century.
Just My Thought,
Most Respectfully,
R
