Jeb Bush

[Flopper]

How the F is this fat bastard leading in the polls? Literally ever republican I talk to online or in person hates his guts. Are these polls corrupt? I mean WTF??

Because he's not going to come across in the debates as a far right wing lunatic. So many Republicans kill their chances of getting elected by what they say and do in the primaries attempting to get the nomination.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I wouldn't put stock in 2008. The dems ran an unknown BLACK guy named Hussein and won in a landslide. W left behind a stench and brown trail.

The answer to the question of "why Jeb" is simply that traditionally the state parties get behind the candidate who has done the most for THEM. That's what Reagan did from 1976-80. That's what W did in the late 90s. And that's what Christie was doing until he did the BBF with Obama, and then began skating close to indictment. The GOP doesn't go much for insurgency .... like McGovern and Obama .... and today Warren.

Statistikhengst is partly correct in saying Mitt was the only qualified one in 2012. But, it's not really qualification. Rather, the guys in the clown car were running AGAINST the party. That's why Cruz has no chance. Rubio, imo, has promise, but he's really too young, and worst, Jeb's his mentor. Rand Paul is an outsider, and while he's flip flopped on everything from natl security to immigration ... at heart he's still a outsider. I don't think he has the political or social sense of a Reagan, or the work ethic, to convince the party to embrace his political beliefs. He can't do it in a primary in any event. It's a multi-year commitment of attending state fund raisers and giving speeches. And there are no headlines in that.

So, it's left up to Walker. I had an open mind. But I think he's personally corrupt .... he'll sell his office. The Clinton's sell access. The Bushes had to do TARP because the Carlyle Group has real estate on every continent except Antartica and maybe Australia. But Walker will sell enviromental regualtions to individual polluters. The Kochs are bankrolling him, though. So, he can stay in until the end.

Thanks for the nice words.

I think people should not underestimate the amount of damage that Ted Cruz, and I mean very specifically Ted Cruz, can do to the GOP. Of all of the candidates thus far declared and assumed to declare not long from now, Ted Cruz is imo absolutely the farthest to the Right and the most extreme on pretty much anything. If history has taught me one thing in politics, it's that real extremists have a base that will remain faithful to them practically to the death. His followers are not going to be happy when he does not secure the nomination and if they even sense a whiff of a sniff of a smidge of RINO in the '16 GOP nominee, they may just stay home out of protest.

In Ted Cruz, I see the "clientele" as being the strange intersection of birthers/2nd amendmenters/10ers and hard-core Evangelicals who are just convinced that the "End Times" are practically upon us, and it's all Obama's fault. By birthers, I mean those birthers who will find an excuse to not say that Ted Cruz, who was born in Canada and whose father was not an American at that time, is ineligible.

Now, I think that Rand Paul is out there, too, but the guy has the ability to make a cogent, convincing argument over what he believes. Of all of the candidates thus far, Rand Paul absolutely did the best job of outlining his platform, plank for plank, and I have respect for him because of this. His "clientele" will be the Libertarian wing of the party and the few minority folks who are actually Republicans. I bet that, seeing stiff competition for the Evangelical vote (which is MASSIVE in core GOP primary states, especially in the Appalachia/Bible Belt and Big Sky regions), he will tack slightly to the center and hit the big cities in the Midwest, alot, in the hope of peeling off moderates from Bush, Walker and Kasich.

Lindsay Graham (princess - SC) is a drama queen and a diva of the highest order, but Graham knows how congress works. Graham can get wonky and actually be willing to hash out policy in a debate. I think that when Graham announces, he will actually be a PLUS for the GOP, because he will be one of the sane ones on stage, keeping the GOP from bleeding profusely on the floor during the debates.

Marco Rubio is young and pretty much unknown, but he is picking up donors right and left, many of whom would have been Jeb Bush donors. I am sure this does not sit well with the Bushes at all. I would not underestimate his ability to pick up more delegates that people realize. However, at the end of the day, I am not sure that the GOP is willing to nominate a Latino to be their standard bearers. The birthers in the GOP certainly will not have him.

Bush? A third Bush? Get real.

Fiorina? Demon Sheep? Get real.

Enter Walker. Walker may just have the best shot at the nomination, but may just as easily fuck it up along the way. It's been a long time since the GOP has fielded a midwesterner as it's standard bearer, and he comes from a state that the GOP would love to pull out of the BLUE WALL.

Mike Huckabee has experience from 2008 and probably has the better chance of connecting with Evangelicals than either Cruz or Paul. The problem with Huckabee is regional. Can he even get a foothold outside of the South?

And then there is Ben Carson, whom I find to be a fascinating person, a brilliant neurosurgeon, and presidential medal of honor winner and a very family type of guy. I do not think that Ben Carson is the Cain of 2016. I think he is a very different person. I just don't know if he can get traction where he needs to get it. Wait and see.

At then end of the day, after they've beat up on each other, either Bush or Walker, I suppose, will get the nod.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I just want to point out than none of these candidates can even come close to Bill Clinton in terms of the ability to actually talk policy and have people be quiet and actually listen and not fall asleep.

Bill's 48 minute speech from the DNC in 2012 was absolutely one of the highlights of the year and he is going to be on the trail with Hillary.

 

[Missourian]

I don't think you are understanding me. Yes, MO is WTA, but less and less states are like that.

I understand you perfectly. What I'm saying is less WTA states are a GOOD thing. Proportional is better.

In the 2008 Missouri Primary, it would have been better had the delegate been split McCain 19, Huckabee 19, Romney 17, instead of giving McCain all 55.

Why do you believe more WTA states would be better?

 

[rightwinger]

How the F is this fat bastard leading in the polls? Literally ever republican I talk to online or in person hates his guts. Are these polls corrupt? I mean WTF??

Jeb is the only Republican with a credible chance to win

To do that he has to piss off the far right......fair trade

When I saw you had posted in this thread, I just knew you'd be talking up Bush just like you talked up Romney as "the only Republican with a credible chance to win".

Dec 30, 2011:

I have been saying for two years that Mitt Romney is the only credible candidate that Republicans have.

Thanks, but no thanks.

I was right about Romney, I am right about Bush
Never said they WOULD win, just have the only credible chance

Romney took the red states plus North Carolina. No other Republican would have done as well

Bush can compete in Florida which no other republican can do

 

[Rocko]

How the F is this fat bastard leading in the polls? Literally ever republican I talk to online or in person hates his guts. Are these polls corrupt? I mean WTF??

Jeb is the only Republican with a credible chance to win

To do that he has to piss off the far right......fair trade

When I saw you had posted in this thread, I just knew you'd be talking up Bush just like you talked up Romney as "the only Republican with a credible chance to win".

Dec 30, 2011:

I have been saying for two years that Mitt Romney is the only credible candidate that Republicans have.

Thanks, but no thanks.

I was right about Romney, I am right about Bush
Never said they WOULD win, just have the only credible chance

Romney took the red states plus North Carolina. No other Republican would have done as well

Bush can compete in Florida which no other republican can do

Another Bush with a credible chance of being POTUS? Surely you jest.

 

[Rocko]

I think Bernie Sanders gives the democrats the most credible shot at wining.

 

[Missourian]

I was right about Romney, I am right about Bush
Never said they WOULD win, just have the only credible chance

Romney took the red states plus North Carolina. No other Republican would have done as well

Bush can compete in Florida which no other republican can do

Rubio is 31 and Bush is 30 in the last Florida poll.

Florida poll Rollout helps Marco Rubio tie Jeb Bush in home state - Marc Caputo - POLITICO

So that puts the kibosh on that line of reasoning.

Heck, I can understand why you support Romney and Bush...two guaranteed losers, easy pickings.

 

[Flopper]

I wouldn't put stock in 2008. The dems ran an unknown BLACK guy named Hussein and won in a landslide. W left behind a stench and brown trail.

The answer to the question of "why Jeb" is simply that traditionally the state parties get behind the candidate who has done the most for THEM. That's what Reagan did from 1976-80. That's what W did in the late 90s. And that's what Christie was doing until he did the BBF with Obama, and then began skating close to indictment. The GOP doesn't go much for insurgency .... like McGovern and Obama .... and today Warren.

Statistikhengst is partly correct in saying Mitt was the only qualified one in 2012. But, it's not really qualification. Rather, the guys in the clown car were running AGAINST the party. That's why Cruz has no chance. Rubio, imo, has promise, but he's really too young, and worst, Jeb's his mentor. Rand Paul is an outsider, and while he's flip flopped on everything from natl security to immigration ... at heart he's still a outsider. I don't think he has the political or social sense of a Reagan, or the work ethic, to convince the party to embrace his political beliefs. He can't do it in a primary in any event. It's a multi-year commitment of attending state fund raisers and giving speeches. And there are no headlines in that.

So, it's left up to Walker. I had an open mind. But I think he's personally corrupt .... he'll sell his office. The Clinton's sell access. The Bushes had to do TARP because the Carlyle Group has real estate on every continent except Antartica and maybe Australia. But Walker will sell enviromental regualtions to individual polluters. The Kochs are bankrolling him, though. So, he can stay in until the end.

Thanks for the nice words.

I think people should not underestimate the amount of damage that Ted Cruz, and I mean very specifically Ted Cruz, can do to the GOP. Of all of the candidates thus far declared and assumed to declare not long from now, Ted Cruz is imo absolutely the farthest to the Right and the most extreme on pretty much anything. If history has taught me one thing in politics, it's that real extremists have a base that will remain faithful to them practically to the death. His followers are not going to be happy when he does not secure the nomination and if they even sense a whiff of a sniff of a smidge of RINO in the '16 GOP nominee, they may just stay home out of protest.

In Ted Cruz, I see the "clientele" as being the strange intersection of birthers/2nd amendmenters/10ers and hard-core Evangelicals who are just convinced that the "End Times" are practically upon us, and it's all Obama's fault. By birthers, I mean those birthers who will find an excuse to not say that Ted Cruz, who was born in Canada and whose father was not an American at that time, is ineligible.

Now, I think that Rand Paul is out there, too, but the guy has the ability to make a cogent, convincing argument over what he believes. Of all of the candidates thus far, Rand Paul absolutely did the best job of outlining his platform, plank for plank, and I have respect for him because of this. His "clientele" will be the Libertarian wing of the party and the few minority folks who are actually Republicans. I bet that, seeing stiff competition for the Evangelical vote (which is MASSIVE in core GOP primary states, especially in the Appalachia/Bible Belt and Big Sky regions), he will tack slightly to the center and hit the big cities in the Midwest, alot, in the hope of peeling off moderates from Bush, Walker and Kasich.

Lindsay Graham (princess - SC) is a drama queen and a diva of the highest order, but Graham knows how congress works. Graham can get wonky and actually be willing to hash out policy in a debate. I think that when Graham announces, he will actually be a PLUS for the GOP, because he will be one of the sane ones on stage, keeping the GOP from bleeding profusely on the floor during the debates.

Marco Rubio is young and pretty much unknown, but he is picking up donors right and left, many of whom would have been Jeb Bush donors. I am sure this does not sit well with the Bushes at all. I would not underestimate his ability to pick up more delegates that people realize. However, at the end of the day, I am not sure that the GOP is willing to nominate a Latino to be their standard bearers. The birthers in the GOP certainly will not have him.

Bush? A third Bush? Get real.

Fiorina? Demon Sheep? Get real.

Enter Walker. Walker may just have the best shot at the nomination, but may just as easily fuck it up along the way. It's been a long time since the GOP has fielded a midwesterner as it's standard bearer, and he comes from a state that the GOP would love to pull out of the BLUE WALL.

Mike Huckabee has experience from 2008 and probably has the better chance of connecting with Evangelicals than either Cruz or Paul. The problem with Huckabee is regional. Can he even get a foothold outside of the South?

And then there is Ben Carson, whom I find to be a fascinating person, a brilliant neurosurgeon, and presidential medal of honor winner and a very family type of guy. I do not think that Ben Carson is the Cain of 2016. I think he is a very different person. I just don't know if he can get traction where he needs to get it. Wait and see.

At then end of the day, after they've beat up on each other, either Bush or Walker, I suppose, will get the nod.

When there are a number of people seeking the nomination, the most extreme of the bunch can't get nominated because they will have alienated the middle of road voters and provided the ammunition for opposition to rally their forces in the general election. That's why, the GOP always ends up with a George Bush, McCain, or a Romney. This time it will be Jeb.

 

[rightwinger]

I was right about Romney, I am right about Bush
Never said they WOULD win, just have the only credible chance

Romney took the red states plus North Carolina. No other Republican would have done as well

Bush can compete in Florida which no other republican can do

Rubio is 31 and Bush is 30 in the last Florida poll.

Florida poll Rollout helps Marco Rubio tie Jeb Bush in home state - Marc Caputo - POLITICO

So that puts the kibosh on that line of reasoning.

Heck, I can understand why you support Romney and Bush...two guaranteed losers, easy pickings.

Hillary would beat Rubio in Florida

She will have a tougher go against Bush

 

[Missourian]

Hillary would beat Rubio in Florida

She will have a tougher go against Bush

Ratfucking - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

 

[JoeB131]

Of course you prefer Jebby, he is a big government loving welfare/warfare progressive statist like yourself.

But that description applies to nearly all the R candidates. So you should be happy that no matter who wins in 2016, progressivism will continue to rule the nation.

Yes, no matter who gets elected, we are not going to end up in the Ayn Randian Dystopia you guys desire.

But I'd rather have someone who can run the country (like the Clintons) over someone who will fuck it up (like the Bushes).

 

[JoeB131]

Rocko, if it is any consolation to you, Jeb Bush is currently getting pummeled in Iowa polling:

Iowa IA Poll - May 6 2015 - Walker In Front Of Pack In Iow Quinnipiac University Connecticut

Quinnipiac is a damned good pollster. And honest too. Contrary to popular belief, Qpiac has an ever so slightly CONSERVATIVE mathematical bias in it's election polling, based on the end polls from 2012, but well within the green zone.

Apparently, Walker is picking up steam in Iowa.

Yeah, but a few things. the last two winners of Iowa were Santorum and Huckabee. Is Iowa that important. I think Iowa might boost the "not Bush".

second, since Walker comes from a neighboring state, that makes Iowa less important.

 

[JimH52]

He is the only one in the clown car who can win, and he hasn't even opened the door yet.

 

[JoeB131]

He is the only one in the clown car who can win, and he hasn't even opened the door yet.

I think Rubio or Walker would be more formidable than Bush.

Hillary's main vulnerability is that she rich, out of touch and not personable. Oh, yeah, and she thinks she's entitled because her husband held the job.

Jeb has all those same problems.

 

[rightwinger]

Rocko, if it is any consolation to you, Jeb Bush is currently getting pummeled in Iowa polling:

Iowa IA Poll - May 6 2015 - Walker In Front Of Pack In Iow Quinnipiac University Connecticut

Quinnipiac is a damned good pollster. And honest too. Contrary to popular belief, Qpiac has an ever so slightly CONSERVATIVE mathematical bias in it's election polling, based on the end polls from 2012, but well within the green zone.

Apparently, Walker is picking up steam in Iowa.

Yeah, but a few things. the last two winners of Iowa were Santorum and Huckabee. Is Iowa that important. I think Iowa might boost the "not Bush".

second, since Walker comes from a neighboring state, that makes Iowa less important.

I have never understood the infatuation with Iowa. It does not reflect the rest of the nation and it is six electoral votes

 

[JoeB131]

I have never understood the infatuation with Iowa. It does not reflect the rest of the nation and it is six electoral votes

Well, it's the first contest. It will cull the herd because it always does. And its small size (like NH) allows for a lot of retail politics.

What they should do, is allow for states to rotate who goes first.

 

[JimH52]

He is the only one in the clown car who can win, and he hasn't even opened the door yet.

I think Rubio or Walker would be more formidable than Bush.

Hillary's main vulnerability is that she rich, out of touch and not personable. Oh, yeah, and she thinks she's entitled because her husband held the job.

Jeb has all those same problems.

To a point I agree. But Jeb appears to be the choice of the majority of the establishment GOP right now and is building a huge war chest. Yes, the Koch Brothers are courting Walker, but I think when they begin looking beyond the surface they may not be as enamored with him. It will be very interesting to see who finally shakes out of the clown car....still standing.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Rocko, if it is any consolation to you, Jeb Bush is currently getting pummeled in Iowa polling:

Iowa IA Poll - May 6 2015 - Walker In Front Of Pack In Iow Quinnipiac University Connecticut

Quinnipiac is a damned good pollster. And honest too. Contrary to popular belief, Qpiac has an ever so slightly CONSERVATIVE mathematical bias in it's election polling, based on the end polls from 2012, but well within the green zone.

Apparently, Walker is picking up steam in Iowa.

Yeah, but a few things. the last two winners of Iowa were Santorum and Huckabee. Is Iowa that important. I think Iowa might boost the "not Bush".

second, since Walker comes from a neighboring state, that makes Iowa less important.

I have never understood the infatuation with Iowa. It does not reflect the rest of the nation and it is six electoral votes

I agree. Demographically, Iowa is not representative of the USA at all.
But Iowans, like New Hampshirities and South Carolinans, somehow feel ENTITLED to have the first in the nation primaries.

And it has now snoballed into a tradition that actually makes little sense.

 

[Flopper]

He is the only one in the clown car who can win, and he hasn't even opened the door yet.

I think Rubio or Walker would be more formidable than Bush.

Hillary's main vulnerability is that she rich, out of touch and not personable. Oh, yeah, and she thinks she's entitled because her husband held the job.

Jeb has all those same problems.

Hillary enjoys a lot popularity with the general public. In most of the polls she about 50% but when compared to her likely Republican rivals she does very well.