Thereabouts.
The truth is, the Zeroes were a better plane and their pilots better trained on average at the beginning of the war. Longer range and much better maneuverability, and, if I remember correctly, they had a larger navy (airforce?) at that point. At the top end though, U.S pilots were superior. The Battle of Midway was a prime example of this, and the turning point.
Sadly, less experienced U.S pilots were sent out early, fodder and scouting and they suffered great losses during the battle. Their sacrifices made it possible for the U.S to successfully take out the Japanese there. By the end of Midway, the U.S had employed the Thach Weave, which minimized the successes of the Japanese in Dogfights and better skilled pilots dive bombed at will with great success. This was repeated in multiple battles with increasing ease.
Also, even if the Japanese finished the job at Pearl Harbor, they were doomed. U.S war time manufacturing crushed them in rapid fashion. There are some great time line videos out there showing how fast the U.S navy ramped up their fleet after Japan had an early lead.
Ultimately, without the nuke, it could have gone on for many years. However, in my opinion, it ensured submission. To think it took two of them shows just how the Japanese were unwilling to accept defeat.